It is being reported that the last Russian submarine has left the Mediterranean due to the loss of the Tartus naval base in Syria. This is a good thing, in case anyone is confused. You may recall that we recently discussed the idea of the US seizing Syria or, in some other fashion, denying the base to Russia. This is pretty compelling evidence as to the desirability such actions.
Bye, bye!
AFAIK Russia hasn’t ‘lost’ its Tartus base, and both the so-called ‘interim Syrian government’ and the Turks, who seem to be calling the shots, are, for obvious reasons, keen for the Russians to stay. But maybe I’ve missed something.
ReplyDeleteProbably the Russians have moved their boats as a precautionary measure, as there are apparently any number of Ukrainian drone operators in the country and a moored sub is an attractive and vulnerable target for them and for the former Isis terrorists who are, with our support, for the moment at least, in control of much of Syria.
But in any event, pushing a couple of Russian submarines out of the Mediterranean and back into the Black Sea or the Baltic is a very small and inconsequential achievement when set against the immense geopolitical harm that we have inflicted upon ourselves through our idiotic strategy - if it can be so characterized - vis-a-vis Russia generally and the conflict in Ukraine particularly.
How the whole Syria thing pans out is impossible to say at this point, but the most probable scenario is a resumption of the ethic and religious based civil war, with hundreds of thousands of innocent people being killed, and millions of refugees fleeing first to Turkiye and then onwards to Europe.
How this could be remotely to our benefit entirely escapes me, but given our track record in Iraq and Afghanistan why should anyone expect anything different?
"AFAIK Russia hasn’t ‘lost’ its Tartus base"
DeleteThey've pulled out and left the base. Whether you choose to call that 'lost' is immaterial and relevant only to a lawyer.
"there are apparently any number of Ukrainian drone operators in the country and a moored sub is an attractive and vulnerable target"
Unless those drone operators suddenly appeared the day after the collapse of Syria, they would have been there before that and yet the Russians maintained subs and ships there. So, yes, it would appear that the Russians have lost the base with the collapse of Syria.
"pushing a couple of Russian submarines out of the Mediterranean and back into the Black Sea or the Baltic is a very small and inconsequential achievement"
On the contrary. Those subs, ships, and aircraft were an ever present threat that is no longer there. You'll recall reports that the presence of Russia subs caused changes to Western military actions during the missile attacks awhile back. Those forces also offered presence and influence in the region. Countries could see Russian military might which aided the Russians in their attempts to expand their influence in the region. Being ejected from the region is very significant.
"How this could be remotely to our benefit entirely escapes me"
The previous post and comments laid out exactly how this could be of benefit. The benefits are not debatable. Whether the benefits are worth the cost is debatable.