One of the programs that’s causing excitement among military
aircraft observers is the adaptive engine (AE) effort which is intended to be
applied to the F-35 and the next generation aircraft.
What kinds of benefits are being sought? From Wikipedia,
The
AETP [Adaptive Engine Transition Program] goal is to demonstrate 25% improved
fuel efficiency, 10% additional thrust, and significantly better thermal
management.[1]
From Wiki, here’s a brief description of the technology and
hoped for benefits:
The
XA100 is a three-stream adaptive cycle engine that can adjust the bypass ratio
and fan pressure to increase fuel efficiency or thrust, depending on the
scenario. It does this by employing an adaptive fan that can direct air into a
third bypass stream in order to increase fuel economy and act as a heat sink
for cooling; in particular, this would enable greater use of the high speed,
low altitude part of the F-35 envelope. The increased cooling and power
generation also enables the potential employment of directed energy weapons in
the future. When additional thrust is
needed, the air from the third stream can be directed to the core and fan
streams. In addition to three-stream adaptive cycle configuration, the engine
also uses new heat-resistant materials such as ceramic matrix composites (CMC)
to enable higher turbine temperatures and improved performance. According to
GE, the engine can offer up to 35% increased range and 25% reduction in fuel
burn over current low-bypass turbofans.[1]
Currently,
the F-35A has an unrefueled range in the region of 1,350 miles, which would be
increased to around 1,800 miles with the new engine. [ed. 33% increase][2]
So, to sum up, what are the benefits? From the above description, we see claims of :
On the other hand, what do we know about developmental
programs? Well, with 100% historical certainty,
we know that developmental programs always overpromise and underdeliver. Thus,
In addition, the claimed benefits are obtained only under
perfect conditions. For example, the
claimed increase in range is only if the engine is used under ideal conditions
for the entire distance. In reality, no
aircraft is going to cruise under perfect, maximum economy conditions for an
entire mission. Therefore, the increase
will be significantly less than claimed.
So, combining the three factors of claims, historical
reality, and realistic operating conditions, what would more realistic benefits
be?
Even those are likely on the optimistic side!
We don’t know the costs but, like any cutting edge
technology, they’ll be eye-watering. Now,
let’s combine the more realistic benefits with the massive costs, greater
complexity, and lower reliability that goes hand-in-hand with greater
complexity and ask ourselves, are the benefits worth the cost, complexity, and
lower reliability (reduced aircraft readiness/availability)?
Given that aircraft readiness rates are already in the
toilet, is introducing an even more complex and less reliable engine really a
step in the right direction?
Are we sure this isn’t a case of pursing a technology for
its own sake rather than for any actual gain in combat effectiveness? In fact, let’s think about combat
effectiveness.
Fuel efficiency is a cost savings but is not a direct
improvement to combat effectiveness.
Similarly, increased range may offer some improvements in flexibility of
operational planning or loiter time but is not really a direct improvement to
combat effectiveness. Thrust, on the
other hand, can enhance combat effectiveness but not significantly in the small
amount we’re talking about. Thermal
signature reduction also offers a direct improvement to combat effectiveness
but the degree of improvement is unquantified and will likely be minor.
Without a doubt, gains in thrust (even small gains), fuel
efficiency, and range are all nice to have.
No one would argue with them or turn them down … if they were free. However, as with any new, cutting edge
technology, they most certainly will not be free in terms of dollars, time, or
reliability. There will be staggering
prices to be paid.
Consider the examples of the LCS, Zumwalt, F-35, and
Ford. All promised huge gains but the
reality is that the gains have been non-existent to minimal and, in some
respects, have resulted in decreases in combat effectiveness while incurring
horrific costs and massive schedule delays.
Do we really think that never before done adaptive engines will be the
breakthrough technology that will achieve all its goals and do so
affordably? Only a fool would believe
that.
So, again, is it worth it?
I would suggest, no.
Conclusion
An adaptive engine will, without a doubt, result in staggering
costs, increased complexity, decreased aircraft readiness and minor
improvements mainly financial and logistic in nature. Are the improvements worth the cost and
problems? K.I.S.S. rules the
battlefield. Is a more complex and less
reliable engine the way to follow the K.I.S.S. mandate?
We also need to consider the implication for war. When the war with China comes, we’ll need
lots of engines. The more complex the
engine, the fewer we’ll be able to produce and the longer they’ll take to
make. During war, it’s better to have a
simpler engine that meets 80% of the performance needs and can be quickly and
easily produced than to have complex engines that are difficult to make and
cannot be produced in the required quantities.
China is coming for us and we need to reorient our thinking
to wartime production requirements instead of long, drawn out, unaffordable,
complex peacetime requirements. The
adaptive engine appears to be more of a business case than a combat case.
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[1]Wikipedia, “General Electric XA100”, 14-Apr-2022,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric_XA100#:~:text=The%20General%20Electric%20XA100%20is%20a%20three-stream%20adaptive,fighter%20program%2C%20the%20Next%20Generation%20Air%20Dominance%20%28NGAD%29
[2]The Drive website, “F-35s Could Get New Engines As Soon
As 2027”,Thomas Newdick & Joseph Trevithick, 11-Dec-2021,
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43456/f-35s-could-get-new-engines-as-soon-as-2027