Wednesday, June 3, 2020

Eliminate History

The Commandant of the Marines has previously stated that maternity leave and gender issues are top priorities for him – you know, along with dismantling the Corps – and now he adds to that the removal of any vestige of the Confederate States from the Civil War.  This includes Confederate battle flags and any other symbol that is or might be construed as being related to the Confederate States.

Here’s some quotes from the Commandant’s letter banning Confederate symbology.

All of our installations have regulations prohibiting the display of symbols related to hate speech. (1)

So, apparently, pride in one’s heritage is now hate speech?

… help cultivate an environment which promotes unity and security by limiting offensive or divisive displays. (1)

What about homosexual displays?  Those are most certainly divisive and offensive to many!

Leaders must always act thoughtfully when enforcing these provisions because they directly impact a precious constitutional right—the right to free speech. (1)

Listen up, Marines!  You have the Constitutionally guaranteed right to free speech … as long as it exactly duplicates what the Commandant says.

I must identify symbols or subcultures that degrade the cohesion that combat demands of us. (1)

So, rather than allow any individuality, any displays of historical pride, any celebration of heritage, or any freedom of speech, the Commandant has made it his mission to stamp out any symbols or subcultures … unless, of course, they’re ones he, personally, approves of.

Now, before any of you begin banging out your indignant, outraged protests and condemnation of my support of slavery (I know, many of you already have), note that I haven’t actually said that I support slavery.  I also haven’t actually said that I support the display of Confederate symbology.  What I’ve said is that I note the classification of some types of symbols as hateful and divisive while other symbols are deemed okay despite also being hateful and divisive.

Frankly, I don’t have any idea why Confederate symbology would be displayed in the Marines.  Perhaps there are units that trace their lineage back to the Confederate states and units?  I have no idea.

What I do know is that who we are is the sum of all of our past experiences both good and bad.  Trying to eliminate all historical record of periods, actions, and attitudes we find disagreeable, however appropriate and typical they may have been for their time, is horribly wrong.  We need to study, understand, and learn from our entire past not just the selected bits we deem ‘good’.  We must never forget the Nazis, the Holocaust, slavery, or any other evil act.  Instead, we must study them and constantly remind ourselves of what they meant and what they mean to us, today, in terms of lessons learned.

When we try to tear down statues of Confederate heroes we are editing our history and that is never a good thing.  When we try to remove all reference to Thomas Jefferson (President and founder of the University of Virginia) from the University of Virginia because he owned slaves we are editing our history.  This also reminds us that most events and people in history are neither all good nor all bad.  To discard parts of our history because some particular aspect of it was bad is to lose all the good that went with it.  To tear down George Washington because he owned slaves is to lose the lessons of all the good that he did and all the good he represents.

With all that said, there are three takeaways from this discussion:

  • Embrace history, don’t fear it.
  • Be consistent.  If you want to ban symbology, ban all symbology not selected symbols that you personally disagree with – that’s just hypocrisy. 
  • If this is what the Commandant is spending his time on then we have the wrong Commandant.


Note:  I know this touches on a charged issue.  If you choose to comment, be absolutely certain that it's about something I actually said, not something you think I said.  Failure to do so will result in a deleted comment.


Update

Note:  I'm shutting down commenting on this topic as I can already see that the comments are headed in an unproductive direction.  I had hoped that the larger issues could be discussed logically and objectively but it's apparent that comments and discussion will devolve into comments about slavery.  Commenting will resume with the next post.  Comments remain open for all other posts.  Thank you for your understanding.


__________________________


Monday, June 1, 2020

Zumwalt Status Update

The Zumwalt has finally finished its combat system installation and activation and testing is currently taking place at Pearl Harbor.  At last, nine years after physical construction began, Zumwalt is nearly physically complete and functional.  To celebrate, let’s briefly recap the ship’s history and check its current status.  Here’s a timeline of the ship’s major events.


Event
Year
Comment
Laid Down
2011
Beginning of physical construction
Launched
2013

Delivery
2016
Delivered incomplete; Phase II of construction pending
Fake Commissioning
2016

Transit to Homeport San Diego
2016
Lost power due to water leak in lube oil; had to be towed
San Diego Fitting Out
2016
Phase II construction and initial combat system install
PR Cruise
2019
Public relations cruise and transfer to Pearl Harbor for combat systems installation
Combat Systems Installation and Activation
2019
Combat systems installation and testing at Pearl Harbor
Real Commissioning
2020
Commission granted by ComNavOps



So, nine years to complete the ship.  Hmmm …  How are we going to replace lost ships in a war?  We should be seriously examining our ship designs and asking why it takes nine years to build a ship.  But, I digress …

Let’s quickly review the ship’s status.


Weapons.  The major problem with the Zumwalt is that it has very little in the way of weapons which means it has only limited use in combat.  The ship’s main weapon, Advanced Gun System (AGS) - the weapon the entire ship was designed around – is non-functional due to cancellation of the only ammunition the gun could fire, the LRLAP round.  That leaves the ship with a total weapons fit of the following:

  • 80x Mk57 VLS cells
  • 2x 30mm machine guns

Note the complete absence of any point defense weapons like CIWS or RAM/SeaRAM.  This is not a ship that stands a good chance of survival in combat. 

Worse, we’ve discussed that the Zumwalt’s VLS cells have only limited capability because it doesn’t have the full Aegis combat system software.  Currently, Zumwalt does not have Tomahawk or Standard missile launch capability although the Navy requested funds from Congress to integrate the Tomahawk capability.(2)  What does that leave?  I guess the ship is a giant ESSM barge.

On the ‘plus’ side, the Zumwalt just conducted its first live fire of its 30 mm machine guns, only four years after being commissioned! (3)

You’ll also note that the Zumwalt has no offensive weapon capability since the guns are non-functional and Tomahawk missiles are not supported.  So, that leaves Zumwalt as a purely defensive ship whose self-defense system is also non-functional (see the next section).

Ship Self-Defense System.  Due to the lack of illuminators and the decision to delete half of the Dual Band Radar, the Zumwalt has no functional missile guidance system.  The Navy is currently trying to modify missiles with the Joint Universal Weapons Link to accept radar guidance from the SPY-3 but that, in turn, appears to be negatively impacting radar performance (see, “Zumwalt Self-Defense Problems”).  The upshot is that Zumwalt’s self-defense system is non-functional.

Crew Size.  Zumwalt, like the LCS, was designed for minimal manning with a crew of around 140 on a cruiser size ship with a displacement of 16,000 tons.  By comparison, the Burke has a crew of 320 and a displacement of 9200 tons.  As the LCS has demonstrated, minimal manning has been an abject failure in every respect.  When the lack of point defense is combined with the lack of crew for damage control the situation is even worse.

Ballistic Missile Defense.  Information on the Zumwalt’s BMD capability, or lack thereof, is sketchy and confusing.  The Navy has, at various times, stated that the Zumwalt is capable of firing the Standard missile family and is not capable of operating Standard missiles.  What this appears to mean is that although the VLS cells can launch physically launch a Standard missile, they cannot be guided because the ship lacks the Aegis combat system which provides the missile guidance.  Regardless of the physical ability of the ship to eject a Standard missile from the VLS cells, it appears that the ship has no BMD capability due to a lack of BMD software in its combat system.

Experimental Squadron.  For the moment, the Navy plans to use the Zumwalt as a test bed for an unmanned squadron of ships that will include the first four LCS, DARPA’s Sea Hunter, and the Zumwalts.(1)  Wow!  What a collection of misfits!

Stealth.  Supposedly the ship’s most important attribute, stealth, was going to allow the ship to sit close inshore and rain death on our enemies while remaining undetected.  Setting aside the fantasy level of thinking contained therein, even the stealth has been degraded.  While the first two ships were constructed with a resin-wood composite deckhouse that supposedly had special stealth characteristics, the third and final ship was built with a standard steel deckhouse.  What’s more, the final fitting of the ship reveals that non-stealthy platforms, masts, sensors, and antennae have sprouted on the ship like mushrooms and have, presumably, negatively impacted whatever stealth the ship may have had.


Note all the non-stealthy projections, masts, platforms, antennae, etc.


Summary

Well, there you have it.  That’s what a $25B+ program gets you – a ship with no offensive weapons, no functional self-defense, no point defense, degraded stealth, and a crew too small to fight the ship and execute damage control.



_____________________________________

(1)USNI News website, “Navy Stands Up Surface Development Squadron for DDG-1000, Unmanned Experimentation”, Megan Eckstein, 22-May-2019,
https://news.usni.org/2019/05/22/navy-stands-up-surface-development-squadron-for-ddg-1000-unmanned-experimentation

National Interest website, “Drones Are Giving The Troubled Zumwalt Destroyer A Place In The Navy's Strategy”, David Axe, 2-May-2020,
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/drones-are-giving-troubled-zumwalt-destroyer-place-navys-strategy-149866

(3)MilitaryLeak blog, 21-May-2020,
https://militaryleak.com/2020/05/21/us-navys-uss-zumwalt-completes-first-live-fire-test/

Thursday, May 28, 2020

Escorts

The key to understanding this post is grasping and accepting that the engagement window for a ship to defend against attacking missiles will allow just 4 shots per target (see, “Engagement Range”).  Most of us have grown up seeing WWII videos of ship anti-aircraft gunners pouring thousands of rounds into the air as the enemy planes slowly approach and then enter their terminal dives and weapon releases.  Each target engagement can last for several minutes.  This is no longer the case.

While I view history as timeless in its lessons, irrespective of technological advances, this is an example where technology has altered the details, if not the fundamental concept.

Each target engagement will last 4 shots.  It doesn’t matter how many missiles you have in your magazine, you’ll only get 4 shots per target.  If you don’t understand this, there’s no point reading the rest of the post.  This is not an opinion on my part, this is simple and pure physics.


With that out of the way …


One of the problems that has become obvious over the course of many posts and comments is that most people do not understand the concept of escort vessels.  Really?  What could be more simple, you say?  You assign a couple of Burkes to provide anti-air (AAW) protection and, of course, being multi-function, they have the added benefit of being able to provide anti-submarine (ASW) protection, as well !  Well, there’s a little more to it than that.  In fact, there’s a lot more to it than that!

Unfortunately, far too many observers/commenters believe that around 2-4 escorts is sufficient for a high value target (HVU) like a carrier, convoy, or amphibious group because that’s all they’ve ever seen the Navy operate.  The more extreme observers might call for 6-8 escorts.  However, even this is woefully insufficient and now we’re going to see why and we’re going to correct this misconception.

As always, let’s begin with a review of history.


Historical Escorts

We forget just how many escorts a WWII carrier task force required.  Admiral Marc Mitscher described the escort requirements of a carrier task force in the following statement from Wikipedia.

Said Mitscher: “The ideal composition of a fast-carrier task force is four carriers, six to eight support vessels and not less than 18 destroyers, preferably 24. More than four carriers in a task group cannot be advantageously used due to the amount of air room required. Less than four carriers requires an uneconomical use of support ships and screening vessels.” (1)

The support vessels were cruisers and battleships.  Combined with 18-24 destroyers, the total escort requirement was 24-32 ships – a quantity that seems shocking to us, today, because we’ve forgotten the requirements of combat.

Having reminded ourselves of the historical precedents, let’s conduct an analytical examination of today’s requirements.  Escorts are needed to perform two basic functions:  anti-air protection and anti-submarine protection.  Additional functions such as electronic warfare and anti-surface protection are also required but can generally be performed by the AAW or ASW vessels.


Anti-Air (AAW) Escorts

There are several aspects to consider when discussing AAW escorts.

Threat Axis.  Unless you have absolute knowledge about the enemy’s attack plans – and you never do – the threat axis is unknown.  Yes, you may well have a general idea of what direction an attack will come from but a ‘general idea’ is far from certain. 

In WWII, the identification of the threat axis was a bit more obvious.  While aircraft could, and did, attempt to circle around and try to approach from alternate or several angles, their ability to do so was limited by their range.  Attacking aircraft were generally near their maximum range by the time they reached the target and began their terminal attack runs so they rarely had the fuel required to perform wide swings around their targets to approach from unexpected directions.  Additionally, wide swings provided more time for the defensive aircraft and AAA to attrite the strike so the strikes generally made fairly straight approaches with just some terminal maneuvering, especially for torpedo attacks.

Today, cruise missiles with thousand mile ranges can use waypoints to approach from any angle.  Therefore, every axis is a potential threat axis although more direct axes still have a somewhat higher likelihood of attack.

So, to cover ever axis requires that the escorts be arranged evenly in a circle around the high value unit they’re escorting.  This, alone, would suggest the need for at least a dozen or more escorts.

Effective Engagement Range.  We’ve previously discussed that the most likely AAW engagement scenario involves sea skimming aircraft or missiles that are detected at the radar horizon (call it 20 miles, optimistically) (again, see, “Engagement Range”) and that engagements will involve short/medium range ESSM missiles with very brief engagement windows.  Two salvos of two missiles each would be a fortunate engagement.  That being the case, those marvelous ships with a thousand VLS cells are pointless, as we’ve pointed out in the past.  Each ship, regardless of how many VLS cells it has, is likely to only get off four defensive missile shots per engagement.  That being the case, it is obvious that the only way to get more missiles into the engagement is to have more ships since more VLS cells per ship doesn’t help.  This, again, suggests the need for as many AAW escort ships as possible.  Thus, one would like to have 2-4 ships along every threat axis.  The arithmetic on this quickly leads to very large escort numbers.

Probability of Kill (pK).  It’s necessary to consider the defensive pK against attacking missiles when trying to determine the required number of escorts.  For example, if the pK is very high, you only need a few escorts because you only need a few defensive missiles but if the pK is very low then you need lots of escorts to make up for the individually low pK (recalling that each ship will only get a very few shots per engagement). 

So, what is the pK?  Well, that depends in great measure on the geometry of the intercept.  If the attacking missile is coming straight at you, then the geometry is simple, your defensive missile is not required to maneuver, and the pK is high.  At the opposite extreme, if the missile is going past you (nominally, a 90 degree off-axis defensive shot), aimed at some other ship/target then the pK is going to be very low because off-axis shots require a great deal of maneuvering by the defensive missile.

The reality is that modern attacking missiles, even one coming straight at you, enter into wild, violent, evasive maneuvers in the terminal attack phase precisely to make the defensive shot a somewhat off-axis shot and, thus, a lower pK.

There is very little data available on actual naval defensive missile engagements and what there is, is not encouraging.  Historically, the pK of defensive missiles, even against direct attacks, is 5%-25% (see, “AAW”). 

It’s readily apparent, then, that if the escort is not the main target, which it usually isn’t, the defensive pK will be very low which requires that multiple escorts be placed as nearly on the direct threat axis as possible.  The only way to ensure direct threat axis placement is with large numbers of escorts distributed evenly around the escorted target so as to ensure that there are at least some escorts in the direct path of the attacking aircraft/missiles.

Layered Defense.  The best defense is one that begins as far out from the HVU as possible.  Recognizing that the most likely engagement will occur at radar horizon distances (15-20 miles), the only way to push the initial engagement out from the HVU is to create multiple defensive layers of escorts spaced at 15-20 mile intervals out from the escorted high value unit so that the attacking aircraft/missiles have to pass through multiple layers and multiple engagement opportunities in order to get to the HVU. 

We did this in WWII with distant rings of destroyers backed by closer rings of cruisers and, finally, a very close ring of battleships (the WWII equivalent of Aegis).  To get, say, three rings requires a radius of 45-60 miles which means a 90-120 mile diameter defensive sphere around the HVU!  When one contemplates the number of ships required to attain effective engagement density across a 90 mile diameter defensive circle and still cover every threat axis, it becomes instantly apparent that many, many escorts are needed.

Positioning.  Modern aircraft and missiles are far too fast to allow for escort repositioning once an engagement has begun.  Whatever position the escorts are in when an attack begins is the position they’ll have to fight from.  Thus, we must have enough escorts to provide adequate protection from any axis.  Repositioning during an attack is not an option.


Anti-Submarine (ASW) Escorts

If the ASW function resides on ships separate from the AAW function then the escort requirement further increases.

Engagement Range.  Modern subs have torpedoes with ranges of up to 60 miles.  It is vital to detect and engage subs beyond their torpedo range to the HVU.  That means engaging at ranges of 60+ miles.  Given the slow pace of ASW engagements, great standoff distance is also necessary to allow the HVU to continuing advancing while the ASW engagement is being conducted.  If ASW engagement begins at, say, 20 miles, the HVU would have to immediately turn away and begin a high speed run in the opposite direction.  This is counterproductive in getting the HVU to its destination.

Subs also have guided missiles with ranges of a hundred miles or more although this becomes an AAW problem at some point.

Numbers.  WWII demonstrated that the most important factor in successful ASW was numbers of ASW assets.  The Cold War simply reinforced this lesson.  Thus, having a single ASW escort in any engagement is unlikely to produce a positive result.  Successful engagements will require multiple ASW assets.  Now, not all of the numbers need to be ships.  Some/all of the assets can be aircraft but, ultimately, the aircraft require ships to operate from.

Threat Axis.  Unlike the aerial threat, submarine threat axes are much more limited and are primarily centered around the course of the advancing HVU.  Subs that are significantly offset from the course of advance will be unable to achieve a viable intercept position without significantly increasing speed and making their presence known.  Thus, while a few flank and rear ASW escorts are needed, the majority can be concentrated along the forward arc of the direction of travel.


Electronic Warfare (EW) Escort

We should have a few dedicated EW escorts.  Our current ships are limited to small, underpowered SLQ-32 / SEWIP components that are designed to provide self-defense, only.   A dedicated, high powered area defense EW ship is needed that can operate antennae as large as needed and as many as needed along with numerous, high powered transmitters for jamming.  Think of this as the EW version of Aegis.

We use dedicated, large EW aircraft so why not ships?  Compare the size of even aircraft EW equipment to ship EW equipment and it becomes immediately obvious how meager our shipboard EW is.


Attrition

Another factor in escort number determination is attrition.  Some extra escorts are necessary to allow for possible losses.  Without some extra escorts, the entire group would be forced to retire upon the first loss of an escort.



Escort Concept

Having considered the above requirements, let’s see if we can bring it all together and conceptualize an escort requirement.  We’d like to have multiple defensive rings similar to the following:



Escort Concept
Defensive Ring
Radial Distance, miles
No. of Escorts
Purpose
Inner
1
4
engage leakers
Second
20
18a
main engagement zone
Third
35
8b
early warning / early engagement
Fourth
60
8c
ASW / early warning


a each ship covers a 20 deg sector
b each ship covers a 45 deg sector
c ships spread across 45 deg arc on course of advance



This gives us three engagement zones plus a distant ASW zone using a total of 38 escorts.  Most of you will be stunned at the number but it’s an historically and analytically supported requirement.  We’ve just forgotten how many ships are needed to form a survivable, defensible group. 

Another aspect that leads to larger escort requirements today is the increased range and speed of attacking weapons (aircraft and missiles).  In WWII, aircraft had to basically overfly the target ship to release weapons and their speed of approach was only around two hundred miles per hour which provided extended engagement windows (time) for the defenders.  With today’s weapon’s range and speed and the resulting short engagement windows, the only compensation is to engage further out and with more escorts.

This immediately leads one to wonder why the Navy never exercises with this kind of escort density.  Hey, it’s peacetime – I get it.  There’s no need to provide that level of escort on a routine, peacetime basis.  But, shouldn’t we be exercising this escort concept on a regular basis so that we know how to do it when war comes?  I guarantee you that none of our current admirals or captains have the slightest idea how to manage a wartime escort group, where to place the escorts, what tactics to use, or how to maneuver a large, spread out group. 

Consider the ASW escort challenge …  What will the rest of the group do if a submarine is detected?  Keep going?  Turn away?  How many escorts should engage?  Can we afford to detach escorts for prosecution of the target?  How do we compensate if we detach escorts?  This is the tactical level of control that none of our naval officers have any grasp of and never will since we don’t practice it.  We’re going to wind up learning the hard way when war comes and the price of that learning will be sunk ships and lost crews all because the Navy refuses to conduct serious combat exercises now, during peacetime.

Note that the above only applies to a single HVU or a closely clustered group of HVUs.  For a wartime group of 4 carriers, the carriers themselves will be separated by 5-10 miles so the size of the defensive rings and the number of escorts would have to be adjusted accordingly – something we should be learning about in exercises but aren’t.

We also have to make adjustments for reality.  While we might like to have thirty or fifty or hundred escorts, if we only have, say, 15 available then we have to modify our thinking.  Part of that modification might be to cancel missions that have inadequate escort availability.  Alternatively, we might have to sail with lesser numbers of escorts.  How do we adjust?  Where do we place our limited escorts?  How does inadequate numbers affect our tactical usage of the escorts?  These are the types of scenarios we should be exercising and learning, now, during peacetime, instead of wasting our time on useless deployments to show the flag or chase pirates in skiffs.  We are wasting this valuable peacetime.

Fletcher Class Destroyer
Finally, let’s compare our potential existing escort strength to the conceptual needs we’ve just described.  We have around 80 Burkes/Ticos so we can fill out two task forces – and that’s before we’ve lost any ships to combat.  Are two task forces enough to conduct a peer war?  I don’t think so.  Compare that to WWII when we built 175 Fletcher class destroyers, alone, and many dozens of cruisers and battleships.  Of course, we also had hundreds of older destroyers and destroyer escorts and, as the war went on, another hundred or so of newer Sumner/Gearing class destroyers.  We’re not even close to that level, currently, nor should we be.  We didn’t have all those ships when WWII started.  We built them rapidly as the war progressed.  The problem is that we no longer have the ability to rapidly build up ship numbers.  We lack the shipyards, the work force, and, worse, our designs have become so complex that it requires years to build a single Burke class destroyer.  We absolutely need to revisit our entire warship design philosophy with an eye towards simplifying it for rapid mass production.

All right, there you have it.  You now understand the role of escort ships and you have some idea of how many are needed and how they should be used.  For the Navy, it’s now time to start exercising these concepts and finding out what works and what changes need to be made.  We also need to start developing combat commanders who have actual command experience with large escort groups.  Peacetime is a precious commodity – it’s the time to prepare for war and we’re squandering it with worthless deployments, pirate chases, and flag waving.



_________________________________

(1)Wikipedia, “Fast Carrier Task Force”, retrieved 4-May-2020,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fast_Carrier_Task_Force

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Keep Buying More Ships

Recently, I mentioned that we’re producing ship captains and crews whose tours never leave dock.  I get the feeling that some of you may not have believed me.  Well, here’s a timely example.

The move of attack submarine USS Boise (SSN-764) to the dry dock at Newport News Shipbuilding in Virginia ... after the sub has been sitting pier side at nearby Norfolk Naval Shipyard for more than four years waiting for maintenance to begin. (1)

A submarine – one of our precious and most valuable assets – sitting pier side for four years waiting for maintenance.

Let’s just keep buying new ships, though, Navy.  Why invest in shipyards and drydocks when we can get Congress to approve new ships?  So what if most of our carriers and half our sub fleet is sitting idle.  As long as we can buy new ships, we’re happy!

How has no one been fired?


Nothing To Do But Wait


______________________________

(1)USNI News website, “NAVSEA Says Attack Sub Repairs Much Improved as USS Boise Enters Yard Following 4-Year Wait”, Megan Eckstein, 26-May-2020,
https://news.usni.org/2020/05/26/navsea-says-attack-sub-repairs-much-improved-as-uss-boise-enters-yard-following-4-year-wait

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Marine Defense Battalions

You probably recognize that the Marine Corps Commandant’s land-based sea control units are, essentially, just a repeat of the WWII Marine Defense Battalions (MDB) which were created in 1939 to defend island bases against Japanese invasions and to provide coastal defense for forward bases.  Eventually, 20 MDBs were formed and dispersed across dozens of island locations.  Despite the name, the MDBs were not, actually, battalions but were closer to regiments or companies in size.

MDBs used coastal artillery guns and anti-aircraft guns to carry out their mission.  From Wikipedia, a MDB 1939 table of organization and equipment (TOE) included: (2)
  • HQ Company
  • Service battery - Six platoons, each with a searchlight and aircraft sound locator
  • Coast Defense Group - Three batteries, each with two Mark 15 5"/51 caliber guns
  • Antiaircraft Group - Four AAA gun batteries, each with four mobile 3-inch M3 guns;  two AAA machine gun companies, each with 24 Browning M2 water-cooled .50-caliber machine guns on AA mounts;  two beach protection machine gun companies, each with 24 Browning M1917A1 water-cooled .30-caliber machine guns

Does any of this sound familiar?  Substitute missiles for artillery and you have, almost exactly, Commandant Berger’s island-based sea control units.

So, how did these MDBs fare in combat?  The short answer is that none succeeded.  Every island the Japanese attacked to start WWII, they successfully seized.  The only notable, momentary, success occurred at Wake Island where the 1st MDB with 399 personnel (compare this to the Commandant’s vision of platoon size units) used six 5” guns to repel the first Japanese assault which consisted of 2 light cruisers, 6 destroyers, and 450 troops – a remarkably small assault force.  The Marine’s coastal artillery guns sank one destroyer.  F4F Wildcat aircraft sank another destroyer and the Japanese retreated.  Two weeks later, the Japanese returned with a heavier force and seized the island in just over one day.

At Guadalcanal, the MDB went ashore but did little.

[3rd] Marine Defense Battalion protected the beaches within the Guadalcanal perimeter, but did little more than fend off infiltrators, since the main Japanese counterlandings were all away from the perimeter and unopposed. (4)

And so it went.

As WWII progressed, MDBs were assigned to bases across the Pacific where most languished and did nothing.  The majority of MDBs were eventually reclassified as anti-aircraft units when it became apparent that the Japanese were no longer capable of conducting assaults or naval attacks.

A summary of the MDBs and their WWII service can be found in the links below (2, 3).

So, recognizing the marked similarity between the MDBs and the Commandant’s sea control units, what lessons and conclusions can we draw from the WWII MDBs?

Marine Defense Battalion 5" Gun
Mission.  There is a distinct difference between the MDBs and the Commandant’s sea control units.  The MDBs were defensive and were intended to hold and defend bases whereas the Commandant’s units are not intended to hold territory but, rather, to exert sea control over the surrounding region.  Yes, one could argue that exerting sea control is a form of defense but that’s getting into semantics.  The salient point is that the MDBs could not retreat or move when faced with an enemy whereas the sea control units are, doctrinally, intended to relocate rapidly from place to place when threatened (we’ll ignore the impossibility of doing so for the sake of discussion).

Success and Size.  The MDBs had almost no success and the primary reason was that they were too small to accomplish anything.  An MDB consisted of the equipment listed above and a total of three or four hundred rifle troops.  The Commandant’s small sea control platoon size units are even smaller – much, much smaller.  The envisioned Light Amphibious Warship (LAW) would have a troop capacity of around 75.  That’s simply far too small to survive any type of attack.  The only hope the sea control units have of success lies in somehow being able to magically remain undetected while launching missiles or being able to instantaneously relocate to a new, hidden location, while, again, remaining undetected.  This seems decidedly unlikely.

Forward Basing.  A key difference between the MDBs and the sea control units is that the MDBs were deployed to islands and bases in waters that we controlled whereas the sea control units are envisioned to deploy to secret, hidden bases deep inside enemy waters.  As we’ve repeatedly pointed out, no one has yet explained how a painfully slow, non-stealthy, short ranged LAW will be able to penetrate deep inside enemy waters while remaining undetected.  It is worth noting that the MDB forward basing concept proved to be worthless with the MDBs either failing when exposed to enemy attack or sitting idle on islands that the enemy couldn’t reach because they were in waters under our control.

Secrecy.  The MDBs were not secret, hidden units.  Their existence and presence was well known to the enemy.  Operating units with large artillery guns in secret was not a reality then nor is our fantasy of secretly operating units with multiple, large missile launching vehicles a reality now.

Resupply.  At the outset of WWII, the MDBs that faced Japanese attack were fatally crippled by an inability to obtain resupply.  Wake Island was a notable example of this.  Notably, this resupply failure was in waters that we nominally controlled.  Again, this should tell us something about our ability to resupply sea control units operating from islands deep inside enemy waters – it isn’t going to happen.  The fantasy that we can resupply and support units inside enemy waters is just that:  pure fantasy.  To believe that slow, non-stealthy, supply ships will sail deep into enemy waters, undetected, is delusional in the extreme.



Conclusion.  The lessons of the MDBs are screaming at us and yet we’re ignoring them.  The effectiveness and survival of the sea control units depends on a ridiculous degree of fantasy-level stealth (from non-stealthy ships and equipment !) that didn’t exist in WWII and doesn’t exist today.  Despite these lessons, we’re converting the entire Marine Corps to this nonsensical mission and abandoning every other worthwhile combat capability.  Somewhere, a Chinese general is smiling as he crosses the USMC off his list of threats.




___________________________________

(1)Wikipedia, “Marine Defense Battalions”, retrieved 12-May-2020,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_defense_battalions




Friday, May 22, 2020

Admiral James Kirk

This item caught my eye.  Rear Admiral James Kirk just took command of Carrier Strike Group 11 (CSG 11 – USS Nimitz).  This would be just another routine personnel move except that I recall that Kirk was the first captain of the PCU Zumwalt.  He assumed command of Zumwalt in Oct 2013 and served in the position until Dec 2016, which was shortly after the ship was fraudulently ‘commissioned’.

During his time in command, the Zumwalt conducted zero deployments, had no functioning combat system installed, conducted no workups or combat training, had no functioning gun, carried no surface to air missiles, had no combat capability whatsoever, and spent most of its time pier-side.

That was Kirk’s major command slot.  His only other command was a Perry class frigate.  His major command slot taught him nothing about naval combat or operations, gave him no large-ship shiphandling experience, and provided no experience operating as part of a naval task force.  In other words, he gained nothing from it related to naval combat experience or learning.

Now, Kirk is taking command of a carrier strike group.  He’s not a former pilot, he has no major command experience, and yet he’s taking command of Carrier Strike Group 11.  What jumps out from his resume as saying this … this is the guy best qualified to command a carrier strike group?

From his official Navy bio,

He has served in a variety of afloat and ashore billets as a Surface Warfare officer.  He has served afloat on destroyers, cruisers, frigates and staffs including USS Fife (DD 991), USS The Sullivans (DDG 68), USS HuĂ© City (CG 66), USS John S. McCain (DDG 56), gas turbine inspector on the staff of Commander, Pacific Fleet, and operations officer for Carrier Strike Group Seven/Ronald Reagan Strike Group.  He has commanded both USS De Wert (FFG 45), and USS Zumwalt (DDG 1000).

Ashore, Kirk has served as executive assistant to the Navy’s Chief of Legislative Affairs, action officer on the Joint Staff J8, executive assistant to the director of Surface Warfare (OPNAV N96), and as deputy for Weapons and Sensors to the director of Surface Warfare (OPNAV N96). His most recent assignment was as deputy commander and chief of staff for Joint Warfare Center, Allied Command Transformation in Stavanger, Norway. (1)

His only direct carrier experience was as operations officer for the Reagan group.  So, one command as a frigate captain and a staff position for a carrier and he’s the best we can produce to command a carrier strike group?  He’s the guy who’s best qualified to lead a carrier group into combat?  Seriously?

Now, let’s be fair.  There’s nothing wrong with his resume.  It’s a workmanlike, average, unremarkable body of experience.  There’s nothing wrong with it nor is there anything special about it.  We only have around nine carrier strike group commands in the entire Navy.  Shouldn’t the admirals in command of those groups be really exceptional, standout people with amazing resumes?

This guy is clearly on track to become CNO one day if he can maintain his mistake free, uneventful career.

This brings up another point.  With an immense backlog of ships sitting idle, awaiting maintenance, we’re seeing more and more captains and crews serving out their terms without ever leaving dock or rarely so.  We’re producing captains and admirals who are rising through the ranks with some serious lack of sea time and operational experience.  We’ve got submarines that have been idle for years, awaiting maintenance.  We’ve got submarine commanders whose total experience is just sitting beside a dock.

Is it any wonder that our ships are running aground and colliding with giant cargo ships?  Is it any wonder that our admirals are incapable of formulating effective operations and tactics?  Is it any wonder that we come up with idiotic ideas like small, unmanned ships to replace Burkes?

We have got to change.  We have got to get our ships to sea and conducting high intensity, realistic wargames.  We have got to start developing combat commanders instead of dockside babysitters.



_________________________________