How often have we seen comments stating that our carriers
are hopelessly outmatched against China because a carrier has only around forty
combat aircraft (160 in a 4-carrier group) and China has thousands of
aircraft? As good naval analysts always
do, let’s turn to history to see what lessons we can learn that might be
applicable. A salient example is the US
Navy’s WWII attack on Japan’s Truk island bases on 17–18 Feb-1944.
Truk was the major Japanese base in the South Pacific and
was referred to as the "Japanese Pearl Harbor" and "the
Gibraltar of the Pacific”. It was
believed to be heavily defended, fortified, and nearly impregnable with five
airfields and a seaplane base and large numbers of warships.
It was feared that an attack on Truk would be quite costly
and might well not succeed. Despite
this, an attack was ordered (Operation Hailstone) and conducted by three
carrier task forces consisting of 5 fleet carriers (Enterprise, Yorktown, Essex, Intrepid, and
Bunker Hill) and 4 light carriers (Belleau Wood, Cabot, Monterey, and Cowpens) along
with seven battleships, including Iowa and New Jersey, and many cruisers and
destroyers.
The US carriers employed their usual run in under cover of
night and pre-dawn launches to begin the attacks and achieved total
surprise. The result was a completely
lop-sided victory for the US and Truk was never again a significant threat.
As it turned out, the Japanese had already begun withdrawing
major naval units from Truk prior to the attack but that does not lesson the
courage and skill of the attackers.
What can we learn from this?
Surprise –
Surprise has forever been a major contributor to success on the battlefield and
there is no better instrument for achieving surprise on the naval battlefield
than a carrier group (submariners might argue that!). In WWII, carriers conducted high speed run
ins to their target under cover of night.
Today, darkness offers less cover but the tactic is still valid. A carrier at sea is generally “invisible” and
can show up anywhere at any time. An enemy’s
superiority can be decisively overcome if surprise can be achieved. The art and task of the military planner is
to arrange matters so as to achieve surprise.
Localized Superiority
– It doesn’t matter how many assets the enemy has in its total inventory. What matters is how many are instantaneously
available at the point and moment of attack – a concept that seems to elude
many of today’s naval observers. The
Japanese had superior numbers of aircraft when the initial US fighter sweep
arrived but the Japanese aircraft were largely caught on the ground (see,
Surprise, above) thus enabling the US to establish and maintain local,
effective superiority. As long as the
attacking force doesn’t hang around too long, local superiority can be achieved
and maintained for the duration of an operation. Thus, the oft claimed superiority of numbers
of Chinese aircraft in their total inventory is meaningless. What matters is how many they can put into
the air at the moment of attack. Even
having superior numbers locally is meaningless if surprise is achieved and the
aircraft are caught on the ground.
Firepower – In
addition to the hundreds of attacking aircraft, the US utilized large caliber
naval guns on its battleships and cruisers to bombard bases and facilities on
the islands and sink several fleeing ships, thus effectively supplementing the
carrier aircraft. As devastating as the
air attacks were, nothing compares to large caliber naval gunfire for
effective, sustained, unstoppable (with air superiority established!)
destruction. This is a lesson the Navy
has completely forgotten. We have no
surface firepower and will one day rue the absence. Large caliber naval guns are a devastating
weapon and it is the responsibility of the naval planner to recognize that and
work to bring that firepower into play, as appropriate.
Another aspect of firepower is numbers of delivery
platforms. The attack on Truk succeeded
due to the immense numbers of carrier aircraft involved (500 aircraft). An aircraft can only deliver a very limited
amount of firepower and has no ability to sustain that delivery without
returning to its base/carrier to rearm which means aerial firepower can only be
applied sporadically. This limitation
was overcome at Truk (and throughout the war) by applying huge numbers of
aircraft. Each individual aircraft
carried an almost insignificant amount of firepower but numbers
compensated. Our carrier air wings,
today, consist of only around thirty actual combat aircraft (subtracting out
combat aircraft relegated to tanker duty because we idiotically gave up our
tankers without replacement). We’ve
forgotten that quantity matters when it comes to delivering firepower.
Courage – Last
but not least, Truk teaches us the importance of courage. At the time, there was a great deal of
trepidation about an attack on Truk but we went ahead anyway. Today, we have far too many Chicken Littles
who see nothing but doom and gloom and are unwilling to take the slightest
risk.
Who Dares, Wins
Fortune Favors the Bold
These are the mottos and philosophies we should be living
by, not
What Will the Chinese Think?
We Can’t Risk Escalation
Look at all the people, including within the military, who
are terrified by the mere thought of engaging Iran, a third rate military, at
best, certain that we cannot win.
As with any battle throughout history, there are important
lessons to be learned and, as with every battle throughout history, the Navy is
deaf, dumb, and blind to the lessons history is screaming at us.
Fortune Favors the Bold
We Can’t Risk Escalation
