Dropping Like Flies

The Air Force has publicly stated that large UAVs are not survivable on the modern battlefield.  ComNavOps has emphatically stated that, also.  Despite that, many commentators remained convinced that our UAVs will somehow, magically, provide us with total situational awareness.  Well, here’s some evidence that supports ComNavOps’, and the Air Force’s, belief.  From the Atlantic Council  (a supposed non-partisan think tank) website,
 

Since November 2023, the Houthis have claimed responsibility for downing fourteen MQ-9 Reaper drones …[1]

I’ve read unverified, updated reports that the Houthis have shot down as many as 20 MQ-9 Reapers.
 
I have no verification of the reports and no sense of the credibility of the Atlantic Council but it does fit exactly with what I believe and what seems patently obvious:  that slow, non-stealthy, non-maneuverable UAVs are simply target drones on the modern battlefield.  Similar reports from other sources vary in number of Reapers shot down but all are in the 14-20+ range.
 
 
Further evidence comes from the current strikes against Iran, as reported by Air & Space Forces website,
 

MQ-9 Reapers are flying numerous orbits over Iran, gathering intelligence and taking out missile launchers in Operation Epic Fury. Yet Iran has managed to down about 10 of the armed drones …[2]

If a thoroughly decimated military like Iran can manage to down that many drones, imagine what a coherent, peer enemy like China could do.  Large UAVs have a lifetime measured in minutes against a competent peer enemy and have no place on the modern battlefield.
 
One of the fears that I have is that the US will take “lessons” from this Iran conflict and apply them inappropriately to a future war with China just as we seem to be doing with the Ukraine “lessons”.  Both conflicts involve utterly inept militaries which renders any “lessons” invalid.
 
The only valid lesson is that large, slow, non-stealthy, non-maneuverable UAVs are not survivable in a contested air space and we are foolish to count on them.
 
 
 
_____________________________

 
[1]Atlantic Council website, “How the Houthis’ strikes on US MQ-9 Reaper drones serve a wider regional agenda”, Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco, 26-Feb-2025,
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/houthi-strikes-on-us-mq9-reaper-drones/
 
[2]Air & Space Forces Magazine website, “MQ-9s Over Iran: Striking and Finding Targets—But Taking Some Losses”, Chris Gordon and Stephen Losey, 11-Mar-2026,
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/mq-9s-over-iran-striking-and-finding-targets-but-taking-some-losses/

MQ-9 Reaper Shootdown

By now, you’ve probably read about the shootdown of a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper UAV over Yemen.  The event has been confirmed by U.S. military officials (1). 

Why is this of significance to a Navy website, you ask?  Well, I’ve repeatedly harped on the theme that our planned surveillance and targeting platforms such as UAVs, P-8s, and other large, slow, non-stealthy aircraft are not survivable and, as such, will be unavailable to perform their tasks in a peer war.  If some low end threat in Yemen can shoot down a top of the line UAV, what will China or Russia do to our UAVs and patrol aircraft?

MQ-9 Reaper

I’ve repeatedly told you to turn this situation around.  If Chinese or Russian large, slow, non-stealthy UAVs or patrol aircraft were attempting to surveil or target our forces, would we allow it?  Of course not!  And yet we think we’ll be able to conduct surveillance and targeting of them, unimpeded. 

We need to recognize this inherent flaw in our thinking and rectify it or we're going to be fighting the next war blind.

_________________________________

(1)Defense News website, “US MQ-9 drone shot down in Yemen”, Shawn Snow, 2-Oct-2017,

https://www.defensenews.com/flashpoints/2017/10/02/us-mq-9-drone-shot-down-in-yemen/