Showing posts with label Anti-Ship Missiles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Anti-Ship Missiles. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 9, 2024

LRASM Testing

How many new weapon systems work perfectly (or even moderately well) in their first combat test?  The answer, of course, is none.  That’s why it’s so important to conduct as realistic testing as possible of new weapon systems and to test according to the way you anticipate using the weapon.
 
For example, the Navy’s ‘new’ AGM-158C Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) will be used in massed attacks of hundreds of missiles when attacking a Chinese surface or carrier group.  Anything less will be an unsuccessful waste of time, resources, and opportunities.  Therefore, we’ve undoubtedly been conducting tests using many dozens of missiles to prove out the concept and uncover the hidden problems – because, of course, there are always hidden problems.

LRASM


The LRASM program began in 2009 so now, 15 years later, the weapon must be pretty thoroughly tested and debugged … right?  Well, let’s check in on the latest test.
 
The U.S. Navy in partnership with Lockheed Martin successfully conducted a historic Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) flight test with four missiles simultaneously in flight.

Four missiles?  Four?  Four??????  4????????  Fifteen years into the program?!  We’re going to use these in volleys of many dozens or hundreds.  Fifteen years later we’re now proudly testing four missiles … apparently for the first time ever?
 
What happens when we launch seventy or a hundred missiles simultaneously?  Will they co-exist in the same airspace or will they collide as they conduct their individual maneuvers and respond to variations in wind speed, direction, turbulence, and engine wash from the surrounding missiles?  Can we apply mid-course guidance updates to that many missiles in the same small airspace or will the signals get lost, interfered, or mixed up?  Can the weapon’s sensors function with that many other missiles around?  How big of a radar return will that many missiles generate?  These are supposed to be somewhat stealthy missiles but will that many missiles just provide an easy detection for enemy sensors or can the aggregate remain stealthy despite being a giant ‘ball’ of missiles?
 
Four????  There are always unanticipated problems.  Four????
 
So, how does the Navy think the test went?  I’ll bet it was flawless.
 
During the 12th Integrated Test Event (ITE-12), the U.S. Navy was able to demonstrate the weapon’s inherent high-end lethality from mission planning through kill chain integration and its effects on the target. All mission objectives were met … [1]

When are all mission objectives ever not met according to Navy and contractor announcements?
 
The LRASM program has been in existence for 15 years and this is the 12th test???  Assuming each previous test involved just one missile, as suggested by the breathless excitement of this announcement about multiple missiles, that means we’ve tested just 11 missiles in 15 years and, likely, the majority of those tests didn’t involve actual missile performance but were things like captive carry tests, pylon separation tests, telemetry/comms tests, and so forth.  How many actual, end to end tests have been conducted?  I can’t find any data but it’s probably just a few.
 
So, to repeat, how many new systems fail their first combat test?  All of them plus, now, this one, for sure.
 
 
 
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[1]Naval News website, “Lockheed Martin Conducts Test With 4 LRASM In Flight”, Naval News staff, 3-Apr-2024,
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/04/lockheed-martin-conducts-test-with-4-lrasm-in-flight/

Friday, January 12, 2024

Houthis and the Marines – Same Mission?

Reader ‘Robtze’ just thoroughly embarrassed me in a comment with an incredibly astute observation that I completely missed.  He observed/asked whether the Houthis were executing the same mission  the Marine Corps envisions with their island/coastal missile shooter concept.
 
To address his comment, yes, this is almost exactly the mission set.  Let’s take advantage of this remarkable similarity and examine how the coastal ‘missile sniping’ concept is working out.
 
Weapons.  One probable difference is the weapons.  While we have no definitive information on the missiles the Houthis are using, it’s likely that they’re smaller and shorter ranged than the missiles the Marines envision using.
 
Targeting.  From day one, this has been one of the unaddressed, major mysteries about the missile shooting concept.  The Marines have no ability to target beyond the horizon and, if they did, the size and scope of that effort would totally negate the ‘hidden’ and ‘small’ characteristics of the concept (using medium to large UAVs, for example).  We see that many of the Houthi missiles appear to be blind fired, being described by US spokesmen as having indeterminate targets. 
 
From this, we can infer that the targeting issue is a valid one that is not easily solved and will, indeed, be problematic for the Marines.
 
Logistics.  One difference is that the logistic (resupply) issue isn't present for the Houthis since this isn't an isolated island.  They can obtain supplies overland.  Of course, even in this case, the supply routes and methods present a vulnerability that could be targeted and disrupted by US forces.  It seems patently obvious that this logistic vulnerability will exist many times over for Marines on an isolated island in Chinese controlled waters.
 
One of the characteristics of the Houthi attacks is the scarcity of attacking weapons.  It would have been reasonable to expect that they would launch swarms of drones or saturation levels of missiles to try to increase the odds of getting a hit on a Navy warship.  That has not happened which leads one to wonder if their weapon inventories are significantly limited.  If so, this would, again, raise the logistic issue with resupply of missiles, despite being overland, being a weakness.  Again, this illustrates the difficulty (impossibility) of the Marines getting resupplies under their concept.
 
Survivability.  The US and UK have finally executed a counter-strike. 
The US and UK launched some 72 strikes against 60 targets in 16 locations.  The Pentagon described its targets as radar systems, drone storage and launch sites, missile storage and launch facilities and Houthi command and control nodes.[1]

This suggests that an isolated Houthi force, with no significant air defense or counter-air capability cannot prevent the enemy from locating and destroying them.  The Marines, of course, with no significant air defense or counter-air capability, believe that they’ll be able to operate undetected on tiny islands a miniscule fraction of the size of Yemen.  This incident would seem to suggest that the Marine concept is heavy on wishful thinking and light on reality.
 
Effectiveness.  The ultimate measure of the worth of anything is in the results.  The Houthis, due to targeting difficulties and, apparently, logistic (missile inventory) challenges, have been remarkably ineffective.  Some four dozen or more attacks have generated no sunk ships, no hits on a warship, and only minor damage to several ships.
 
The Marines, of course, can expect even less success.  Chinese ships merely have to remain beyond the 12 mile or so horizon and thus achieve total safety due to the lack of targeting.  In addition, there won’t be any Chinese merchant shipping in an active war zone so the Marines would be shooting at warships, not commercial vessels and the Houthi experience demonstrates that warships are, thus far, immune to damage from limited attacks by low end weapons and drones.
 
 
Conclusion
 
This Houthi scenario is offering us a rare opportunity to observe the Marine missile shooting concept in action.  The Marines were quick to jump on – and badly misinterpret – the Ukraine experience to justify their vision.  Will they be as quick to jump on this scenario which is a near perfect duplicate of their concept and is failing badly?  I suspect you know the answer.
 
 
 
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[1]Redstate website, “A 'Morning After' Look At the Strike on Yemen and What It Is Likely to Mean”, streiff, 12-Jan-2024
https://redstate.com/streiff/2024/01/12/a-morning-after-look-at-the-strike-on-yemen-and-what-it-is-likely-to-mean-n2168651

Wednesday, November 9, 2022

Crossed Missiles

We’ve all seen the photos of deck mounted racks of anti-ship missiles, right?  It’s almost always two 4-cannister racks mounted in a side-by-side, criss-cross arrangement so that the two racks point in opposite directions.

 

NSM Launcher Racks


This arrangement is neat, compact, and efficient … and idiotically foolish from a combat perspective.  It puts the ship’s entire dedicated anti-ship weaponry in one location, susceptible to a single hit which would eliminate the ship’s entire anti-ship capability.

 

Worse, on the Independence LCS variant, a single hit on or near the missile racks would also likely destroy the 57 mm gun since neither the racks nor the gun are armored.  Simple shrapnel would destroy both missiles and gun.

 

NSM Launchers on Independence Class - Note Proximity
to 57 mm Gun


The Freedom variant LCS has a proposed slightly different Naval Strike Missile (NSM) rack arrangement with the two racks separated a bit.  I haven’t actually seen a photo of a Freedom variant with installed NSM racks yet so that arrangement is only speculative.  Still, as seen in the photo below, the racks are not far apart and are even closer to the 57 mm gun than on the Independence variant.  A single hit in that area would certainly destroy the two missile racks and the gun.

 

NSM Launchers - Note Proximity to 57 mm Gun and 
Vulnerability to a Single Hit


It’s not just the LCS.  Below is a photo of criss-crossed Harpoon racks on a Burke class destroyer.

 

Harpoon Racks on Burke Class


The criss-cross arrangement has always been a characteristic of US ships.  Below is a photo of criss-crossed Harpoon racks on the stern of a Ticonderoga class cruiser.

 

Harpoon Racks on Stern of Ticonderoga Class


One of the tenets of combat effectiveness and survivability is separation of equipment.  In other words, don’t put all your eggs in one basket.

 

It’s bad enough that our ‘ship of the line’ Burke class destroyer would mount only eight dedicated anti-ship missiles - a woefully small amount for naval combat – but to risk losing all of them to a single hit is sheer idiocy that violates common sense combat design principles.  The missile racks need to be separated, as far apart as possible.  In general terms, one rack should be located forward and the other aft, either on the centerline or staggered offset to port and starboard.

 

 

 

________________________________________

 

On a related note, below is a photo of a Harpoon canister being loaded on a rack, for those of you who are wondering about reloading at sea during a battle.  Sorry, can’t be done with the current arrangement. 


Harpoon Canister Being Loaded Onto Rack


On a related, related note, you may recall that the Perry class frigate’s Mk13 single arm missile launcher had a 40-missile magazine that could accommodate a mix of Standard and Harpoon missiles.  That old, obsolete ability to carry a large number of anti-ship missiles is starting to look pretty good, now, isn’t it?

 

Perry Class Mk13 Missile Launcher



Monday, October 31, 2022

Missiles Versus Battleships

One of the common rejoinders employed by battleship critics is that modern anti-ship missiles would quickly and easily sink a battleship.  Of course, this statement is made with zero supporting evidence.  On the contrary, there is much evidence that suggests – but does not explicitly prove – that battleships would be largely immune to anti-ship missiles.

 

Battleship critics have suggested two modes of ‘killing’ a battleship:

 

  • Outright sinking using modern anti-ship cruise missiles
  • Mission killing due to destruction of top side electronics, sensors, and weapons

 

We’ll examine each of those modes but, first, let’s understand some underlying concepts.

 

 

Relevant Concepts

 

Armor Piercing Shells – A battleship’s main weapon was the 16”+ gun firing 2500 lb armor piercing (AP) or high explosive (HE/HC) shells travelling at velocities of Mach 2+.  For example, the Iowa’s 16” AP/Mk8 weighed 2700 lb and had a muzzle velocity of 2425 ft/sec (1653 mph, Mach 2.1).

 

What is an armor piercing (AP) shell?

 

U.S. Navy World War II nomenclature uses the words "Armor Piercing" (AP) to mean that the base-fuzed, hard-nosed projectile so labeled has a thick, steel AP cap designed to allow intact penetration through some thickness of Class "A" (face-hardened) armor plate.[1]


AP Shell Mk 8

Armor piercing shells were designed, as the name implies, to penetrate a ship’s armor.  This was accomplished by placing a heavy, solid metal cap over the explosive shell.  Grossly simplifying, the cap was a sacrificial ‘point’ that would penetrate the armor allowing the explosive shell behind it to enter the ship intact and functional before exploding. 

 

Armor – A battleship’s armor (we’re talking about US battleships in this post) is intended to protect vital equipment.  Any equipment not protected is not vital – useful, undoubtedly, but not vital.  As a general statement, battleship armor was designed to provide immunity to another battleship’s weapons which means 16”+ shells.  It is noteworthy that the Iowa class was designed to be immune to 16” plunging fire.

 

Armor was not, as so many people believe, simply thick plates of steel attached to the sides of the ship.  Instead, it was a sophisticated system of plates, layers, carefully calculated void spaces, differing materials and treatments of steel, calculated angles (obliquity), etc. all working together to defeat attacking shells.

 

The main mechanism of armor protection was the act of decapping incoming AP shells before they could penetrate the armor.  In other words, the armor was designed to strip the armor piercing cap off the incoming shell before penetration could occur.  If the shell could be decapped, the shell’s penetration would be prevented or severely limited.  Navweaps website has articles by Nathan Okun that go into much greater detail, for those interested.[1,2]

 

Armor penetration requires a rather lot of information, but decapping of the projectile by breaking the rather weak solder and/or mechanical bond between the nose and cap base is very, very simple:

 

0.08-0.08049-caliber thickness of any kind of homogeneous iron or steel plate has a 50% chance of decapping any kind of capped projectile over 40mm in diameter under ANY impact condition, penetrating or not.

 

0.0805-caliber and up thickness always decaps the projectile, penetrating or not.[2]

 

 

The USN Iowa and South Dakota class battleships have an internal inclined main armor belt. What isn't well known is that they also have a shell plating outside of this belt that acts as a decapping plate. On the South Dakota's, this shell plating is 1.25" thick (3.2 cm) and on the Iowa's it is 1.5" thick (3.81 cm). Using Nathan's formula above, the South Dakota's plating would be sufficient to decap any projectile up to 15.5" (39.4 cm) and the Iowa's plating would be sufficient to decap any projectile up to 18.6" (47.3 cm). This would imply that the Japanese Type 91 18.1" (46 cm) APC projectiles fired by the Yamato would be decapped by the Iowa's shell plating before they reached the main armor belt. Decapping an AP projectile greatly decreases their armor-penetration ability against face-hardened naval armor (unprotected projectile nose now shatters into pieces) at under 45° impact obliquity angle.[2]

 

 

The angle of impact (obliquity) of a shell on armor was also immensely important.  A perfectly perpendicular strike on armor was the most difficult to defeat while angled impacts acted to disperse the force parallel to the armor, causing a ricochet or greatly reduced damage.  This is why armor was angled when possible and where appropriate.  Again, I’m grossly simplifying the physics and mechanics of this. 

 

Another important factor that most people are unaware of is just how extensive the armor coverage was.  For example, the conning tower of the ship was heavily armored as opposed to today’s ships whose bridge superstructures are not armored at all and consist of what amounts to thin aluminum foil, for all practical combat purposes.  Note the thickness (17.3”) of armor around the conning tower of the New Jersey in the photo below.

 

Armored Conning Tower 

Critics who think a battleship’s topside would be destroyed by missiles are unaware of the extent of armor.  WWII ships were built with armored structures and equipment that we don’t even consider for armor today.  The topsides, while not protected as heavily as the hull, were still heavily armored.

 

One of the common misguided notions is that anti-ship missiles will conduct pop-up attacks and strike the vulnerable decks from above where the battleship is helpless. Battleships were design to defeat plunging fire.  From Wikipedia,

 

The deck armor consists of a 1.5-inch-thick (38 mm) STS weather deck, a combined 6-inch-thick (152 mm) Class B and STS main armor deck, and a 0.63-inch-thick (16 mm) STS splinter deck. Over the magazines, the splinter deck is replaced by a 1-inch (25 mm) STS third deck that separates the magazine from the main armored deck.[3]

 

Thus, overhead strikes were well accounted for with the upper deck providing the decapping function and the underlying deck providing the main resistance against whatever penetration did occur.  Of course, if it were established that overhead attacks were a common staple of missile attacks, a modern version of a battleship could easily redesign the armor to beef up that area.

 

Anti-Ship Missiles - Now that we understand what is required to have a chance of penetrating battleship armor (meaning an AP shell) and how the armor acts to protect the ship, let’s look at the modern ‘shell’ which is, of course, the anti-ship missile (ASM).  ASMs can be crudely grouped into two categories:

 

Light – typified by the Harpoon (1500 lbs, 490 lb warhead), Exocet (1700 lbs, 360 lb warhead), and C-80x family (418 lb warhead), among others.  These are relatively small, light, generally subsonic, and have warheads in the few hundred pound range.

 

Heavy – typified by the BrahMos (6600 lb, 660 lb warhead), P-700 Granit (15,400 lb, 1650 lb warhead), and P-800 Oniks (6600 lb, 660 lb warhead).  These missiles are relatively large, heavy, generally supersonic, and have warheads in the 600-1000+ lb range.  Some of these missiles are described as semi-armor piercing, whatever that means.

 

 

Shell-Missile Comparison

 

The obvious next step is to understand how shells and missiles compare as far as their ability to penetrate battleship armor.

 

Skin – A key characteristic of shells and missiles is the thickness of their ‘skins’.  A missile, even the largest, has relatively very thin skin amounting to no more than that necessary to hold the internal components in place and provide an aerodynamic shape.  In contrast, naval shells have very thick walls which both aid in penetration and serve to contain and compress the explosive chemical reaction (the blast). 


Penetration – The common, light ASMs are not generally claimed to be armor piercing and are, conceptually, simply explosives and motors contained in a very thin skin of aerodynamically shaped sheet metal.  They have no armor piercing capability whatsoever beyond their inherent kinetic energy which is woefully insufficient to penetrate significant armor.  The armor would not even need to perform its de-capping function since the missiles have no armor piercing cap.  The missile would simply explode against the outside of the armor, doing little more than scratching the paint.

 

Several decades ago, I read reports of tests by the Navy involving launches of anti-ship missiles against armor plates.  Unfortunately, at the time, I did not save the reports and have been unable to find them now.  As I recall, the missile was the Harpoon.  I do not recall the armor plate thickness or composition.  Regardless, the result was that the missile achieved no penetration and did no damage.

 

As noted, some missiles claim to be ‘semi-armor piercing’ but I’ve seen no description or definition of what that means.  Presumably, it means it might be able to penetrate some small degree of armor but, unless the missile contains true armor piercing caps equivalent to 16” battleship shells and the rest of the missile body is encased in a thick shell, the missile will have no chance of penetrating any significant degree of armor.

 

Few – I actually don’t know of any – anti-ship missiles have actual AP noses.  Battleship armor is designed to decap heavy, large caliber shells so, logically, an AP missile, if such existed, would also be decapped and prevented from penetrating.

 

I am unaware of any credible testing of anti-ship missiles against armor.  There have been Russian claims but they are unverifiable and Russian claims are almost invariably greatly exaggerated, as the Russian performance in Ukraine has demonstrated.

 

 

Discussion

 

We noted that battleship critics claim two modes of ‘destruction’ of battleships:  Let’s consider the two modes.

 

Sinking – In order to achieve a sinking, an ASM would have to penetrate multiple layers of armor to reach vital internal areas.  Even then, that would not open holes for water ingress.  Fire, of course, is always a threat to ships but with vital equipment protected, armor abounding, and extensive compartmentation, it would be very difficult to achieve a sinking. 

 

Mission Kill – As noted, topside equipment is subject to damage but nothing topside is vital.  Battleships were designed with armored sensors and had multiple redundant and backup systems so significant impairment of a battleship’s function via topside damage would be extremely difficult to achieve.  A modern version of a battleship would have its various radar, electro-optical, infrared, and electronic warfare sensors housed in armored structures as the WWII battleships did with their various radar, fire control, and optical sensors.

 

A modern version would have many isolated self-defense weapons (SeaRAM, CIWS) each of which has its own self-contained radar. A single hit could not damage much of a ship's defensive weapons. Besides, defense is what escorts are for. Citing the fact that a battleship was sunk somewhere in history does not invalidate the power and survivability of the type.

 

No ship is invulnerable but a battleship is the least vulnerable ship ever built. A battleship group with Aegis escorts would be an exceedingly difficult group to defeat.

 

Some might say that this entire discussion is pointless because we are never going to bring battleships back.  Well, that may or may not be true but there is a larger point to this and that is the role and value of armor.  Whether that armor is applied to a true battleship or to some other type of ship, this discussion reminds us that armor serves an invaluable purpose and should be part of every warship design.

 

 

 

________________________________

 

[1]NavWeaps website, “Decapping Revisited”, Nathan Okun,

http://www.navweaps.com/index_tech/tech-085.php

 

[2]NavWeaps website, “The Armor Thickness Necessary to Decap an APC Projectile”, Nathan Okun,

http://www.navweaps.com/index_tech/tech-045.php

 

[3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa-class_battleship#Armor


Wednesday, August 24, 2022

You Can’t Have It Both Ways

A reader, ‘BM’, recently offered a comment about the Marine’s small, missile-shooting units that sparked some interesting thoughts regarding the logic of the entire concept.[1]

 

To ever so briefly review the Commandant’s concept, he envisions small units of missile-shooting Marines hidden on islands scattered throughout the enemy’s zone of control and exercising sea control in order to assist the Navy.

 

The objective is clear, if highly questionable.  However, we’ll set the wisdom of the objective aside and focus on the logic of the execution.

 

Reader ‘BM’ posed the question, "how is [a Marine missile unit] better than a flotilla of ships sailing around to actively hunt enemy ships?"

 

I offered the reply that the Commandant's response would be that a flotilla of ships will be quickly spotted by the enemy and attacked whereas his small, missile units will be able to operate undetected. He has basically stated this in so many words.

 

That lead to recognition of [one of] the gaping logical discontinuities with this concept.  The Commandant believes that ships will be easily spotted.  Indeed, his vision takes the detection of enemy ships as a given – witness the fact that he hasn’t even devoted any thought to what kind of detection and targeting assets will be needed and yet – and this is the discontinuity - he believes that his own ships, the LAWs, will operate undetected, transporting Marines through enemy waters, and flitting back and forth to conduct resupply and relocation.

 

So, Navy ships would be quickly spotted and the Marines will quickly and easily detect enemy ships for hundreds of miles around (without, apparently, even requiring any special surveillance assets !) and yet the Marine’s own ships, the LAWs, will be able to sail through enemy waters (at 14 kts !) for days at a time, penetrate enemy controlled seas, beach and spend hours/days unloading a large assortment of vehicles, supplies, equipment, gear, and troops, and be able to resupply and transport Marines from island to island in a cat-and-mouse game that the enemy will never detect and never catch on to.

 

You can't have it both ways. Either ships can be easily spotted, both the enemy’s and our own LAWs, in which case the Commandant’s entire concept falls apart or they can't, in which case the Commandant’s entire concept of spotting enemy ships and attacking them falls apart.  Either way, the concept falls apart due to the logical discontinuity.

 

LAW - It's either invisible or it's not.  You can't have it both ways.

Frighteningly, this kind of logical discontinuity is the norm in military thinking today.  We’re enthusiastically running down paths that exist only on the basis logical disconnects.  We’re building a force whose foundational principle is that everything we do will work and nothing the enemy does will work.  This is delusion taken to an extreme and it is preventing the development of realistic doctrine and tactics and the creation of a force structure that will actually work..

 

 

 

 

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[1]https://navy-matters.blogspot.com/2022/07/marine-missiles.html?showComment=1657889719975#c6280158136513416774


Friday, July 15, 2022

Marine Missiles

Marine Commandant Berger keeps talking about hidden bases with small units that will rain missiles of death and destruction down on the hapless Chinese who won’t have a clue where the Marines are.  Well, let’s attempt to be fair and take a look at the missiles that the good Commandant envisions using.  Are they small enough to remain hidden?  Can they be easily moved as the Marines nimbly relocate from island to island on Light Amphibious Warfare (LAW) ships?

 

Note:  The inspiration and, indeed, much of the organization and content of this post is taken from a Naval News website article by Peter Ong.[1]

 

 

Naval Strike Missile

 

The smallest of the potential missiles for the Marines is the Naval Strike Missile (NSM). 

 

The Marine Corps’ Navy Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) mounts two Naval Strike Missiles (NSM) on a remote-operated, driven, and NSM launched unmanned Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV) 4×4 vehicle.  … The 900-pound (410 kilogram) NSM (or 910 pounds with booster) can be internally loaded aboard a CH-53 and onto the flatbed of a Medium Tactical Vehicle Replacement (MTVR) 6×6 truck via a forklift.  … it is possible to push an NSM container on a trolley cart but loading it onto the JLTV will require a … forklift.[1]


NMESIS Naval Strike Missile on JLTV



That’s a hefty brute of a vehicle.  Note that it carries two missiles.  To be operationally relevant and combat effective, a unit is going to need … what ? … twenty or so missiles, at a minimum?  That would be a minimum of ten such vehicles.  That’s no longer a small, secretive, hidden footprint.  Of course one could always use fewer launch vehicles and just use reloads but that would require forklifts and some type of missile storage facility which, again, is not a small, secretive, hidden footprint.

 

These vehicles (JLTV or forklifts) give off very large infrared signatures, especially in the tropical sun.  Again, not conducive to remaining hidden.


From Wikipedia, here's a description of the components of a Norwegian coastal defense battery which is, essentially, what the Marines are trying to set up:


An NSM coastal battery consists of three missile launch vehicles, one battery command vehicle, three combat command vehicles, one mobile communication center, one mobile radar vehicle with TRS-15C radar, one transport and loading vehicle, and one mobile workshop vehicle. 

Again, that's not a small footprint ! 

 

 

Tomahawk

 

Another missile option is the cutting edge, brand new, ultra advanced, futuristic  Maritime Strike Tomahawk ... which you knew this as the 1980’s – 1990’s era Tomahawk Anti-Ship Missile (TASM).  In any event, the Tomahawk will be deployed on 40 ft long, 34 ton, M872 trailers.

 

The semitrailer is designed to be towed over smooth, hard-surfaced roads with loads up to 34 tons (68,000 lbs payload) at speeds as high as 55 mph (88 km/h). It can also be towed over unimproved roads, trails and open rolling terrain with the same load limit, but at a sustained speed of no more than 10 mph (16 km/h).[2]

 

The M872 semitrailer is designed to be towed by the M915 Series 6x4 Truck, Tractor.[2]

 

Tomahawk Launching From Trailer Mounted VLS Cell


Note the immense size of the trailer, VLS cell, and then factor in the trailer tow vehicle.  The photo depicts a feasibility demonstration but the final launch vehicle will not be any smaller.  Again, assuming we want more than a single missile shot, we’ll need dozens of these trailers, tow vehicles, and, potentially, large cranes to handle the VLS cells.  Imagine a large city freeway with a string of twenty giant tractor-trailers and you’ll get an idea of how hidden this operation will be.

 

Also, note the 10 mph speed limit for movement over unimproved roads and terrain.  This will not be a quick, agile, shoot and scoot operation !

 

The MST uses a two-way communications link for mid-course guidance and targeting updates.  This could prove problematic during combat as it violates EMCON and allows the enemy to locate the communications source. 

 

 

 

HIMARS

 

Another missile option is the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HiMARS) which is a podded rocket system with six rockets per HiMARS pod and are launched from a modified USMC Family of Medium Tactical Vehicle (FMTV) 6×6 truck.[1]  HiMARS rockets may require new seekers to target moving ships.

 

HIMARS Pod on FMTV 6x6 Truck



Note the size of the 6x6 truck.  Again, several such trucks/pods would be needed.

 

 

 

Conclusion

 

The options discussed above all involve dozens of sizeable vehicles – no easy thing to hide on an island inside your enemy’s zone of control.  Also, bear in mind that other necessities must be provided including large amounts of fuel, fuel handling equipment, vehicle maintenance and repair capabilities, spare parts, etc. in addition to the operator’s food, health, and shelter needs.  All of this is in addition to the gear and supplies that the regular Marines will require.  While the Commandant may have some fanciful notion of Marines living off the land (that has actually been discussed in various published articles), that is simply not feasible for any sustained period of time.  There is also the matter of health.  The tropics are renowned for myriad diseases and Marines weakened by malnourishment will be quickly rendered sick and ineffective.

 

We’re also ignoring the challenges associated with transporting and loading/unloading large vehicles to/from islands in secret.  Does the Commandant really believe he can transport and unload dozens of large vehicles without being noticed?

 

The other aspect that is not covered is targeting.  The Marines will need some type of UAV or radar or something to provide targeting beyond the 12 mile horizon.  That thousand mile Tomahawk sounds great on paper but how are you going to get thousand mile targeting?  Whatever vehicle or sensor the Marines use will further reduce their ‘hiddenness’.  Sensor assets will require two-way communications which, again, point back to the Marine’s location.

 

When all the vehicles, UAVs, sensors, support equipment, storage facilities, etc. are considered, it is difficult to see how anyone can believe that missile-shooting units will remain undetected even assuming that they can penetrate the enemy’s zone in a small, non-stealthy, painfully slow LAW and establish themselves on an island in the first place.

 

Finally, the Commandant has stated that in the unlikely event that the Marines are discovered, they will simply hop aboard a LAW  and relocate, thus regaining their secrecy.  Of course, loading and unloading all the equipment we’ve discussed is not an insignificant feat in itself.  Trying to load all the vehicles and equipment onto a LAW will be a pretty noticeable event, one would imagine.

 

By the way, when this unlikely relocation becomes necessary, where will the multiple transport LAWs come from?  Will they be floating offshore, waiting?  If so, wouldn’t they be quickly spotted?  If they’re not waiting and, instead, they’re back on, say, Guam.  It will take weeks to get them to the Marine’s island.  That’s not exactly going to allow for quick, agile relocations, is it?

 

Nothing about this concept appears feasible.  The Commandant either needs to come out and address some of these issues, at least in general terms, or he will continue to face resistance.  He appears to have successfully stifled internal dissent but has run into staunch resistance from former Marine generals and other top-ranking former officials.  Commandant, if you want support you’ve got to provide some information and address the gaping holes in the logic of the concept.

 

 

 

 

 

Side note:  Does anyone recall the Cuban missile crisis?  The Soviets attempted to secretly transport missiles using small, slow, unarmed transport ships (sounds like a LAW !) and place the missiles on the island of Cuba without being noticed and yet they were instantly spotted with 1950’s – 1960’s technology.  How’d that work out?

 

 

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[1]Naval News website, “A Look At The Sizes Of U.S. Land-Based Strike Missiles”, Peter Ong, 29-Jun-2022,

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/a-look-at-the-sizes-of-u-s-land-based-strike-missiles/

 

[2]https://olive-drab.com/idphoto/id_photos_m872_trailer.php


Friday, February 4, 2022

Missile Attack Analysis

We’ve discussed the mechanics and timing of an anti-ship missile attack in various posts and comments.  It’s clear, however, that a lot of people don’t quite have a grasp of how short the window of time is for defensive efforts because I consistently see comments about the value of having a large number of VLS cells despite the fact that we’ve demonstrated, repeatedly, that a defending ship will be very fortunate to get off two salvoes (4 missiles total) per attack.  Well, it’s time to bring it home, graphically, with a second by second analysis of a theoretical attack and see what the implications are for our defenses.

 

 

Assumptions:

 

Anti-ship Missile

 

Type = Chinese C-80x family

Speed = Mach 0.9 = (761.2 mph * 0.9 = 685 mph = 11.4 miles/min = 0.19 miles/sec)

 

Defense

CIWS, effective range = ¾ mile

ESSM, effective range = radar horizon; launch rate = 1 missile every two seconds from two separate VLS clusters for an overall launch rate of 1 missile per second.  ESSM missile speed = Mach 4 = (761.2 mph * 4 = 3,045 mph = 50.7 miles/min = 0.85 miles/sec)

 

Radar Detection Point - For a radar 18 m high (Burke arrays) and a target 5 m above sea level (sea skimming anti-ship cruise missile), calculations[1] give,

 

Radar Horizon = 10.9 miles = 9.44 nm

Radar Target Visibility = 16.6 miles = 14.4 nm

 

Note: the radar target visibility distance is slightly greater than the nominal radar horizon due to ducting of the radar waves.

 

 

Scenario

 

For simplification, this scenario involves a single Burke and a single attacking anti-ship missile of the type described above.  Further, this scenario assumes that the crew and sensor/weapon systems are exquisitely trained and poised for instant action – eyes glued to screens, no hesitation, instant decision, fingers resting on launch buttons.

 

The general sequence of events is

 

  • Detect target
  • React
  • Launch defensive missiles
  • Observe results
  • Repeat until target is destroyed or ship is hit

 

It is necessary to understand the Navy’s typical engagement sequence which is shoot-shoot-look.  This means that two missiles are launched at a target and then the defending ship waits to see the results.  This waiting period allows the cluttered radar picture, which has been obscured by exploding missile debris, to clear as the debris from the intercept attempt falls clear and the actual target is reacquired, if it survived.

 

 

Event

 

Here, then, is the second by second analysis of an attack and defense.

 

 

Elapsed Time, sec

Missile Range, miles

 

Action

0

16.6

 

Missile crosses radar detection horizon

5

15.6

 

Operator verifies contact and reports detection

5-10

14.7

 

Command absorbs information

11-16

13.6

 

Engagement orders issued, targets assigned

16-19

13.0

 

Engagement enabled

20-21

12.6

 

2x ESSM missiles launched

22-24

12.0

 

Missiles tip over and acquire target

27

11.5

 

ESSM = 2.55 miles outbound from ship

30

10.9

 

ESSM = 5.1 miles outbound from ship

35

9.9

 

ESSM = 9.3 miles;  intercept explosions

36-40

9.0

 

Radar picture clearing

41

8.8

 

Re-engage

42-43

8.4

 

2x ESSM missiles launched

44-46

7.9

 

Missiles tip over and acquire target

50

7.1

 

ESSM = 2.55 miles outbound from ship

53

6.5

 

ESSM = 5.1 miles outbound from ship

54

6.3

 

ESSM = 5.95 miles;  intercept explosions

55-59

5.4

 

Radar picture clearing

60

5.2

 

Re-engage

61-62

4.8

 

2x ESSM missiles launched

63-65

4.2

 

Missiles tip over and acquire target

70

3.3

 

ESSM = 3.4 miles; intercept explosions

71-75

2.3

 

Radar picture clearing

76-86

 

 

CIWS/RAM engages for 11 seconds

87

0

 

Missile impacts ship

 

 

There it is, 87 seconds to defend against an attack.  That’s not much time and you can clearly see that there is only time for a theoretical maximum of three defensive engagement salvoes and the third is unlikely because it’s too close and would probably wind up within the missile’s non-engagement safety zone.  Also, the sequence is based on absurdly optimistic conditions of perfect, unhesitating response and speed of execution.  In addition, various time consuming steps were left out such as weapon system warm up time, external safety alarms and time to clear the decks of personnel, etc.  Perhaps the Aegis system, operating in full auto mode could approximate this kind of response time;  I have no idea.

 

Far more realistically, a ship would be lucky to get off a single salvo and two would be phenomenal. 

 

Thus, having ten thousand VLS cells and missiles would be utterly useless in any single engagement.  As we’ve demonstrated, a ship would be fortunate to get off 2-4 defensive missiles.  The remaining 9996 missiles are of no use.  This suggests that our ship design tendency toward ever larger VLS loads is pointless, at least from a defensive AAW perspective.  Using the cells for offensive cruise missile attacks is another story.

 

Now, consider the above scenario and timing from a more realistic perspective.  The radar/sensor operators are going to get momentary indications and will have to wait to try to firm up the possible detection.  The ‘command’ will hesitate, wanting confirmation, and will require some time to evaluate the situation.  Weapon operators will not have their fingers resting on launch buttons and will need some time to configure their systems, obtain weapon tracks, and prepare for launch.  Missiles, while not needing much time, still need a brief ‘warm up’ period.  And so on.  All of that adds time – time that is simply not available.  Hence, a ship would be lucky to get off a single defensive salvo.

 

 

Conclusion

 

Some of the conclusions from this scenario are:

 

  • Detection beyond the horizon is critical, though very difficult;  UAV ‘screen’ to provide early warning?
  • Auto mode is the preferred mode in combat
  • Training is critical to minimize hesitation time
  • The defensive action sequence needs to be shortened as much as possible and ‘command’ layers need to be eliminated, to the extent possible
  • Desperately need a better radar that can maintain target contact in a debris filled sky so that missiles can be launched continuously without needing to wait for the ‘look’ portion of shoot-shoot-look.  Ideally, we want shoot-shoot-shoot-shoot-shoot …

 

 

________________________________

 

Disclaimer:  I have not participated in an actual missile defense exercise so I may well be wrong about some of the events or timing – although it’s hard to imagine I’m overestimating any times!  These are just my semi-informed best guesses.  If anyone has actual experience and cares to share it, I’d appreciate it.

 

This post is NOT intended nor purported to be an actual combat simulation.  It is simply an exercise in the approximate timing of some of the events in a missile defense scenario so as to provide a feel for the time frames involved.

  

 

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[1]https://www.translatorscafe.com/unit-converter/en-US/calculator/radar-horizon/?hr=10&ht=15&u=m