We’ve come to believe that long, drawn out development
programs spanning decades are the norm for new aircraft. That’s our paradigm and because we labor
under that paradigm, we see decades long development programs as normal and
don’t question it. In fact, we question
when someone suggests a shorter development cycle. For example, read the responses to the post, “How To Build A Better Aircraft” to see the knee jerk,
paradigm-inspired, negative reactions.
The reality is that our paradigm could not be more wrong.
Let’s consider the example of the F6F Hellcat, the aircraft
that won the naval aviation war in the Pacific.
The Hellcat went from prototype contract award in Jun-1941 to first
production aircraft in Oct-1942, a period of only 16 months and then entered squadron
service on the USS Essex just 4 months later in Feb 1943.
 |
| F6F Hellcat |
In contrast, the F-35 has been under development for well
over two decades with the first X-35 demonstrator prototype contract having
been awarded in 1997. Development is
still ongoing with the Block 4 full combat software suite still not ready and
likely never will be !!!!!!
What if the F-35 had been needed for WWII? It would have been the mid-1960’s before the
aircraft would have been ready even in the limited form it is today. We’d have lost the war while waiting for the
F-35 (well, no we wouldn’t but I’m making a point).
Most of you are already pounding out a reply pointing out
(rationalizing failure, actually … think about that … about what you’re
defending …) that the F-35 is vastly more complex than the Hellcat so, of
course, it would take more time. Well,
why don’t you pause your typing for a few minutes and let’s examine that
argument.
First, is the F-35 really more complex than the Hellcat was,
for its time? The Hellcat incorporated new
technology such as laterally distributed, hydraulically actuated, landing gear
that rotated 90 degrees while retracting.
It had a new powerplant, the Pratt & Whitney R-2800-10 with a two
stage, two speed, supercharger. The
propeller featured variable pitch which was regulated by oil pressure via the
propeller governor. And so on.[1]
Adding to the complexity and degree of difficulty was the
fact that all design work was done by hand.
There were no computers, no computer aided design (CAD), no computer
drawn blueprints, and no computer performance modeling and simulations. Calculations were done by hand or, perhaps,
with the aid of a slide rule. Aeronautical
theory was barely out of its WWI infancy.
Aircraft design was largely a matter of corporate institutional
knowledge, trial and error, and ‘feel’ from the designers.
Production was a challenge.
There was no automated, robotic assembly; everything was hand built. New production techniques, such as the use of
flat aluminum sheets on the Hellcat, were being conceived and put into use on
the fly.
The Hellcat was a complex undertaking, for sure!
It’s highly debatable that the F-35 is more complex than the
Hellcat was. However, that’s an
unproductive debate. For the purposes of
this discussion, let’s stipulate that the F-35 is more complex than the Hellcat
was. [uh … I’ve got a bad feeling about this] In fact, let’s stipulate (with no supporting
evidence) that the F-35 is the most complex undertaking man has ever
attempted. That should satisfy the F-35
apologists and allow us to move on with our discussion. [oh, oh
… why does this feel like a trap
coming?]
Having reminded ourselves about the development time of the
Hellcat and the F-35 (and blamed the complexity of the F-35 for the extended
development time!), let’s ask ourselves, which is better: a short development time or a long
development time? It’s not a trick
question. The answer is obvious. A short development time is infinitely preferable
to a long development time.
The F-35’s protracted, glacially slow development time is
all kinds of bad and wrong. The F-35’s
original design requirements, established well over two decades ago, are no
longer relevant. Many aspects of the
F-35, such as the IRST, now border on obsolete because they were spec’ed a
couple of decades ago. What might have
been revolutionary capabilities two decades ago, such as the sensor fusion, are
now commonplace and likely better in other aircraft. The degree of stealth that might have been
useful and very effective two decades ago is now considered merely
semi-stealthy and is losing its effectiveness every day.
Far worse, this kind of protracted development is simply not
acceptable in a world that might go to war at any time. The Hellcat is the model for useful
development time.
Now, let’s re-examine our reason (rationalization) for the
F-35’s prolonged development. What did
all you apologists just clamor about? Oh
yes … the complexity of the F-35. [and the trap closes!]
So, if complexity is the reason for protracted development
times and if prolonged development times are bad then it stands to reason that
complexity is bad. Simple logic. Also, blindingly obvious.
Thus, the very complexity that the F-35 supporters and
apologists proudly proclaimed earlier in the post is, in reality, the reason
why the F-35 has been such a failure!
The fanboys have proudly latched onto the root cause of failure and are
promoting and defending it. [… oops!]
So, having identified what’s wrong with the F-35, let’s now
address the ‘why’. Why is the F-35 the
most complex undertaking ever attempted by man?
Again, it’s not a trick question.
The answer, of course, is because we attempted to leapfrog generations
of rational, methodical, educational development in an attempt to jump into the
future. In other words, we unwisely
latched onto revolutionary instead of evolutionary.
In contrast, the Hellcat, while it had new features which
were then state of the art, was still an evolution of the F4F Wildcat and, as
such, was a magnificent and timely success.
Revolutionary development usually fails and, if it succeeds, takes
decades. Evolutionary development
produces a useful, timely product. Which
approach should we be following? Again,
not a trick question …
There’s nothing wrong with pursuing revolutionary
developments … as long as they stay in the lab until they’re ready. It is folly to base production programs on
non-existent, revolutionary technology.
We have to break this cycle of attempting to develop
exquisite, leap ahead technology that winds up consuming billions/trillions of
dollars and never actually pans out.
We’ve had enough LCS, Zumwalt, F-35, Ford programs that reach for the
stars and land in the mud. We need
Hellcats. If the Navy is right about
their prediction of war with China (assuming we opt to contest China’s assault
on Taiwan), we need Hellcat’s, now, more than ever.
Consider the F-35.
What if, instead of trying to create a sensor fused, holographic, multi-dimensional,
subspace, see-through image displayed on a magic helmet in an aircraft that
tried to do all things for all services by implementing horizontal and vertical
takeoff and landing and can’t communicate with anyone other than itself, we had
designed a state of the art (but no further!), single function aircraft, using
only existing technology? We’d have had
an optimized, operating aircraft fifteen years ago and it would have been the
best aircraft in the world, at the time!
We’d have had a modern Hellcat!
Instead, we have a flying black hole of a money pit … you know, the 50%
of the time it’s actually ready to fly (F-35 readiness rates being what they
are; see, “The
Real Aircraft Readiness Rates”).
So, what do we conclude from all this?
As regards development time, complexity is the enemy of brevity.
As regards war, complexity is the enemy of timeliness.
As regards usefulness, complexity is the enemy of relevance.
As regards budgets, complexity is the enemy of affordability.
As regards numbers, complexity is the enemy of quantity.
Wow! Complexity is
the enemy of many things, isn’t it?
Maybe that should be telling us something about our obsessive desire for
complex technology?
Maybe that should be telling us something about the next
generation aircraft the Navy is pursuing?
Maybe that should be telling us something about the cruiser
replacement the Navy is pursuing?
What was that old caution?
Oh yeah …
Keep It Simple, Stupid
K.I.S.S.
The Navy needs to K.I.S.S. their next aircraft and next
ship.
________________________________
[1]LCDR Richard Dann, USNR, Walk Around F6F Hellcat,
Squadron/Signal Publications, Inc., 1996, ISBN 0-89747-079-6