We’ve had a lot of discussions about the role of the
carrier. ComNavOps has stated that
strike (land attack) is no longer a carrier mission. There remains, however, a substantial number
of observers who still cling to the outdated concept of carrier strike
operations.
Why is carrier strike – meaning, manned aircraft – no longer
a mission? Modern, peer defenses,
consisting of both defending aircraft and land based surface to air (SAM)
missiles along with extensive and sophisticated sensors have rendered aircraft
strikes far too risky.
The preferred alternative is, of course, cruise missiles as
suggested by the following missile characteristics.
Cost – Tomahawk cruise
missiles cost around $2M compared to aircraft which cost $80M-$100M each. In addition, aircraft operate on a daily
basis and flight hour costs are on the order of $15K-$30K per flight hour, day
after day. That makes for an incredibly
expensive weapon delivery system. In
contrast, a cruise missile has no operating or maintenance costs to speak of. Finally, the cost of training and
‘maintaining’ a pilot is enormous whereas, again, the cruise missile has no
pilot cost.
Expendability –
Cruise missiles are, by design and by cost, expendable. Aircraft, by design and cost, are not. Modern peer defenses guarantee that strike
aircraft will suffer significant attrition and the cost to replace the airframe
and produce a new pilot is staggering.
Worse, the time required to produce new airframes and pilots is prohibitive
during a war.
Stealth – The US
Navy currently has no stealth strike aircraft.
That aside, cruise missiles have significantly greater stealth than even
a stealth aircraft due to their much smaller size, smaller cross sectional
area, smaller profile (regardless of angle), smaller engine exhaust (IR
signature), and ability to fly a sea skimming terminal approach. And, of course, new cruise missiles have stealth
shaping.
Numbers – The
current US Navy Tomahawk cruise missile inventory is somewhere in the vicinity
of 3000-5000. The Navy currently has 9
air wings with around 44 F-18 Hornets in each for a total of 396 potential
strike aircraft. Of course, in actual
operations only a fraction of those would be available as aircraft are needed
for carrier defense, various CAPs, tankers, and escorts.
Missiles can be massed in very large numbers against a
target. Strike aircraft are severely
limited in number although each aircraft can carry 2-4 missiles or several
bombs. Weight limits, weight
distributions, external fuel tanks, range considerations, self-defense
requirements, etc. limit the number of missiles that can realistically be
carried.
Weather – While
carrier aircraft can operate in bad weather, to a degree, there are significant
limits. Missiles, in contrast are
virtually unaffected by weather.
Range – Cruise
missiles have a range of around 1000 miles.
Aircraft have an effective combat range of 200-300 miles although
various types of standoff missiles would add to that range. For example, the air launched Long Range
Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) has a range of somewhere around 300 miles which, when
added to the aircraft’s range, puts the total strike range at around 500-600
miles. The extended range Joint Air-to-Surface
Standoff Missile (JASSM-ER) has a range of 500 miles or so which, combined with
the aircraft’s range, gives a total strike range of 700-800 miles. Other weapons such as the Joint Standoff
Weapon (JSOW) have much lesser ranges.
JSOW has a high altitude release range of 70 miles.
The benefit, such as it is, of air launched, standoff attack
missiles is negated by very long range SAM defenses and enemy aircraft which
can, and will, contest the launch points.
The effort required to conduct an airborne, standoff strike (aircraft,
fighter escorts, tankers, EW escorts, BARCAP, etc. also negates the
benefits. In short, it requires a far
more massive effort to conduct an airborne, standoff strike than to conduct a
simple ship-launched, cruise missile strike and the benefits are few especially
when weighed against the inevitable aircraft losses.
So, is ComNavOps alone in his assessment? After all, a lot of people are still
unwilling to give up their comforting paradigm of carrier strike. Well, it would seem that the Navy has also concluded
that cruise missiles are the preferred strike asset as evidenced by the strike
history of the last few decades. The
table below is adapted from Wikipedia.(1)
There have been manned aircraft strikes during that time but
those have been relatively few and only in low threat scenarios such as the
infamous ‘truck plinking’ during the ISIS campaign.
You might also recall that not too long ago, the Navy had
stated that the F-35 would be last manned naval aircraft – further recognition
that manned aircraft strikes were no longer viable – and, more recently, the
Navy attempted, but failed, to develop unmanned strike UAVs (that eventually
‘devolved’ into the unmanned tanker).
Clearly, the Navy has moved on from carrier strikes.
The implication of the Navy’s recognition that cruise
missiles are the preferred strike asset is that the carrier air wing should be
shifting its composition from strike to air superiority. We need to drop any aircraft that is a
‘strikefighter’ and switch to pure air superiority. The immediate import of this line of
reasoning is that the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) aircraft, which the
Navy is working on now, needs to be a pure air superiority fighter and not a
strikefighter. Disturbingly, the Navy is
already referring to the NGAD as the F/A-XX strikefighter so that train is
already headed off the tracks.
Carrier aircraft strike has gone the way of the battleship
in terms of being the primary strike method.
We need to complete the transition to carrier air superiority by
modifying our doctrine and operational practices and adjust our air wing
composition accordingly. Carriers and
their air wings remain just as vitally important as ever but their mission has
changed. Just as the battleship
proponents clung to their outmoded paradigm, so too will the carrier strike
proponents cling to theirs but the change is inevitable.
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(1)https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomahawk_(missile)#United_States_Navy