ComNavOps has opined that it is long past time for the US to
pull out of Europe, militarily, and that Europe/NATO can more than stand on its
own. The bogeyman specter of the Russian
bear has been shown to be an illusion, thwarted by the tiny state of Ukraine.
Here’s some interesting data on NATO spending for 2023.
Here’s the top 10 countries for defense spending as a
percentage of GDP.[1]
Poland 3.9%
United States 3.5%
Greece 3.0%
Estonia 2.7%
Lithuania 2.5%
Finland 2.4%
Romania 2.4%
Hungary 2.4%
Latvia 2.3%
UK 2.1%
Here’s the top 10 countries for total defense spending
(million USD).[1]
United States $860,000
Germany $68,080
UK $65,763
France $56,649
Italy $31,585
Poland $29,105
Canada $28,950
Spain $19,179
Netherlands $16,741
Turkey $15,842
The US spent
$860B. The rest of NATO spent $400B
combined.
The reason for NATO’s existence has ended. It’s past time to leave NATO and let Europe
take care of itself.
__________________________
United States 3.5%
Greece 3.0%
Estonia 2.7%
Lithuania 2.5%
Finland 2.4%
Romania 2.4%
Hungary 2.4%
Latvia 2.3%
UK 2.1%
Germany $68,080
UK $65,763
France $56,649
Italy $31,585
Poland $29,105
Canada $28,950
Spain $19,179
Netherlands $16,741
Turkey $15,842
NATO is more a tool to control allies than protect them. Without it, European nations have no choice but to mend relations with Russia since they have no ability to confront.
ReplyDelete"since they have no ability to confront."
DeleteNow, that's just nonsense. Ukraine has fought Russia to a standstill albeit with Western munitions resupply help. If one tiny country that had no credible military before the invasion could stymie Russia then beyond doubt the European nations have nothing to fear.
Your comment borders heavily on being deleted as factually incorrect. Up your game if you wish to comment again.
"Albeit with Western munitions resupply help" is doing the yeoman's work here. Depending on how the next Administration feels about continuing to support Ukraine, the narrative of the "little country that could" could turn into the "little country that was."
Delete"could turn into the "little country that was."
DeleteThe ultimate fate of Ukraine is irrelevant for the purpose of this post/discussion. You're completely missing the point which was that the terrifying Russian giant has been exposed by Ukraine and proven to be a mere mortal or less and that Europe has nothing to fear from Russia.
The most important "takeaway" from Ukraine is how quickly you use munitions / kit and having a robust supply chain for replacement that can in scaled up quickly. But everyone who has studied defence knew that anyway.
Delete"The ultimate fate of Ukraine is irrelevant for the purpose of this post/discussion." Maybe for this discussion, but not for Ukraine--or is it worth having Russia win to each the EU a lesson?
Delete"But everyone who has studied defence knew that anyway."
DeleteSo why did you bother mentioning it?
"Maybe for this discussion, but not for Ukraine"
DeleteAs you note, Ukraine's fate is irrelevant for this discussion so what purpose does your comment serve?
Your comment is irrelevant. Up your game if you wish to comment.
Ukraine had more tanks, artillery and other armoured vehicles than France, Germany, UK, Italy and Spain combined when they were invaded.
DeleteI'm not sure where you are going that Europe could defend itself most young men would flee or surrender rather than fight.
Europe no longer has any fighting instinct it's been breed and taught out of them since the collapse of the USSR.
Without the US supplying munitions Ukraine would have lost within the first year as the entirety of Europe had and continues to supply or build little.
Ukraine said they needed 400k artillery shells a month while Germany with investment will be able to build 200k a year in 2027!
Just Google web yourself on Ukraine 155th brigade to find out how "stern" Ukrainians on fighting Russia, I mean common people. This bigrade was just disbanded.
DeleteThis brigade was trained in France by French. During training, > 600 disserted. French president Macron visited them last November. Before it entered front line, another ~1,700 disserted.
"Europe no longer has any fighting instinct it's been breed and taught out of them since the collapse of the USSR."
DeleteAnd you think the US supplying the military force is going to improve that situation, if it's true? If we keep doing the job for them, they have no motivation to take care of their own defense. Throw 'em in the deep end. Sink or swim.
"the entirety of Europe had and continues to supply or build little."
Because the US is supplying so much! Do you see the problem, here?
"most young men would flee or surrender rather than fight."
I'm pretty sure that you have no factual basis for that statement. Regardless, that's a societal issue for Europe to address. Or ... they can learn to speak Russian. Simple enough choice.
We’re not spending all that cash to protect Europe. We spend it to prop up a hugely inefficient and corrupted defense industry that produces wasteful, useless projects that don’t protect anyone from anything.
ReplyDeletePull everything out of Europe if you want, fine. Any monies saved will just flow elsewhere, and probably on nothing good, unless you also change the entire military leadership decision making culture and procurement process.
"We’re not spending all that cash to protect Europe. We spend it to prop up a hugely inefficient and corrupted defense industry that produces wasteful, useless projects that don’t protect anyone from anything."
DeleteCome on, now. That's an utterly sophomoric statement. Our goal isn't to "prop up" industry. There aren't generals sitting in rooms examining Boeings profits for last quarter and deciding to ship more money to them because their profits are down.
We're spending money to provide military support to Europe. We may not be spending it all in the wisest manner possible but we're not simply shoveling money to industry with no thought of obtaining any useful product.
"Any monies saved will just flow elsewhere, and probably on nothing good"
If you believe, as your statement implies, that nothing can ever change for the better than we may as well all give up and go home and wait for the world to end. I, on the other hand, recognize that we face acquisition and financing problems but I refuse to give up. Change (for the better, we hope) rarely comes in the form of an instantaneous, sweeping revelation. Instead, it comes in small, incremental improvements and those improvements are well worth defining and discussing, here.
For the purposes of this discussion...I wonder what the actual, direct costs of our NATO membership are for the US?? Ie; costs for stationed units, administrative and "joint" staffs, etc... How much would we save if we became a "shadow" member- meaning we physically pull out of Europe, and just leave them with the Article 5 promise of "if you really need us, we will come"?? This seems like what should've been done decades ago. I don't mind our membership in NATO, doing joint training, exercises, etc, but our need to physically be there died when the threat of Soviet armor rolling west did...
ReplyDeleteLord Ismay, the first Secretary General of NATO, reportedly observed that the purpose of the Alliance was to keep the Americans in Europe, the Russians out, and the Germans down.
ReplyDeleteThe purpose of NATO, today, seems to be to allow member countries to redirect monies from military to social spending programs, secure in the knowledge that the US will provide and pay for their defense.
DeleteI've long been in favor of the US withdrawing from NATO and establishing bilateral agreements with the more serious countries in the alliance.
ReplyDeleteBut, for the sake of discussion, I'd like to think of the steps it would take to make NATO a useful alliance.
1. Automatic dismissals for failure to meet spending requirements. If you fail to meet the 2.0% of GDP on defense for three out of five years, you are automatically dismissed from the alliance. There is no vote to be had, no waiver to be given, you are gone and must wait at least ten years to reapply to the alliance. All NATO bases in the country must be closed within a year and all NATO troops sent elsewhere. Alliance members will be barred from forming bilateral agreements with this country to circumvent consequences. Also, paying the US to defend you doesn't count as part of the 2.0%.
2. Actual defense expectations on the Europeans. Russia is the primary invasion threat to Europe (though, as we have seen, it isn't a particularly fearsome one, considering its performance in Ukraine). Europe should be required to maintain the ground forces to defend itself from Russian invasion on its own for at least 12 months. The US can provide air support and navy support, but otherwise you're on your own for 12 months while the US ramps up its war effort.
3. Behave like allies and not undermine the alliance. In particular, I'm looking at you Germany and Turkey. Germany needs to adopt a serious energy policy that doesn't beholden it to the Russians. Turkey needs to decide whether it wants to be western-aligned or not. If it wants to be the hegemon of the Middle East, it can do so without American cover. If either country refuses to do so, they must be expelled.
In addition, all allies must stop cozying up with China ASAP. Any country that refuses to do so will be expelled.
4. Creation of a Pan-European Navy. With exception to the British and the French, the remainder of the European naval forces aren't much more than token assets. There is no reason that the European NATO members can't support at least 5 or 6 carrier groups which would be useful in a conflict with China.
5. Expansion of NATO's coverage area to the Pacific and Indian Oceans. If Guam is attacked, the European allies must be obliged to come to the US's defense.
6. Re-creation of European military-industry. It is not good if one member is responsible for equipping the forces of all of them. If they want to rely on US research, fine. But we need to de-centralize the manufacturing process at the very least.
Sorry, forgot signature.
Delete-Huskers1995
On the whole, some pretty good ideas!
Delete