Monday, May 11, 2020

Feelings Over Facts

I don’t, generally, like to critically comment on other people’s opinion articles because they have no chance to respond.  Sometimes, however, an article so perfectly illustrates a point that I simply have to do it.  Such an article was just authored by Jerry Hendrix, a well known retired Navy Captain and prolific author of naval commentary.  The opinions presented in his article are so illustrative of what’s wrong with our officer corps – our so-called professional warriors – that I simply have to point them out.  Below is a list of statements lifted from the article (1) along with my observations about what’s wrong with them.

The general theme is that the Captain’s statements are mostly wishful thinking that is entirely unsupported by fact.

The selection of the FREMM design suggests that the U.S. government intends to remain engaged in the world.

This is a completely unsupported statement.  Nothing about the selection implies that US government intends to remain engaged in the world.  For starters, this was a Navy decision, not a US government decision and the choice was based on design criteria, not some nebulous global engagement criteria.  This is just some kind of feelings-based, wishful thinking.

Selecting the FREMM should actually make it easier for other U.S. manufacturers to sell their systems abroad.

Nothing about this selection automatically makes it easier for ‘other US manufacturers’ to sell abroad.  The US systems that were selected for installation on the frigate have already been on the international market for some time and have been installed on other classes of US ships.  Installation of these systems on an additional handful of US ships makes no difference one way or the other.

… by selecting Fincantieri, one of the largest shipbuilders in the world (with shipyards in seven countries), as the builder, the Navy will have the opportunity to benefit from an innovative design.

There has been nothing presented about this design that is innovative.  The ship hull is pretty typical of modern ship designs.  The innovative opportunities come from the equipment and systems that will be installed and they are all existing systems that are considered typical, not innovative.

U.S. shipbuilders will get the opportunity to learn design and construction “best practices” from Europe’s leading shipyards.

The ship is going to be built in the existing Wisconsin shipyard which builds the Freedom class LCS.  The Freedom class LCS construction effort has been a disappointment, to say the least, with excessively long delivery times and notably poor completeness and quality.  Unless Fincantieri opts to build a brand new shipyard with nothing but European standards and practices, there is nothing to be learned.  The shipyard and its ‘practices’ already exist and are in place and have performed poorly.

…by operating a design already in use in several other navies, the U.S. Navy will demonstrate its commitment to true interoperability.

This is utterly ridiculous.  Unless the Navy is going to allow foreign crews to take over and operate US frigates, this program does not in any way, shape, or form represent any interoperability.  In fact, the only resemblance of this frigate to the internationally existing FREMM frigates is the shape of the hull.  Every significant system and piece of equipment on the ship will be US Navy standard, existing systems and equipment.  There is not a thing about this that suggests interoperability.

By purchasing frigates of the FREMM design but equipping them with the latest in U.S. sensors and missiles, the U.S. Navy will maintain its technical standards while operating ships that are similar to those used by its operational partners.

To repeat, the only resemblance of this frigate to the internationally existing FREMM frigates is the shape of the hull.  Every significant system and piece of equipment on the ship will be US Navy standard, existing systems and equipment.  Nothing about it will be ‘similar to those used by its operational partners’.  This is pure marketing spin.

… because the new frigate is expected to cost $850 million or less, which is half the cost of the Navy’s next larger ship, the Arleigh Burke–class destroyer, it will be cheap enough to be purchased in larger numbers.

History suggests, with 100% certainty, that the frigate program will wind up being overbudget and by a significant amount.  This is pure wishful thinking.

… because the new design is smaller than the U.S. Navy’s larger cruisers and destroyers, future frigates will be able to make calls into smaller ports that have gone unvisited in recent years …

Can anyone name a single port that this ship can enter that a Burke could not?  Based on existing FREMM frigate specs, the draft of the frigate will be around 29 ft.  The Burke class draft is 30.5 ft.  How does a difference of 1.5 feet of draft open up new ports?  The FREMM length is 470 ft versus the Burke at 509 ft.  Again, how does that difference open up new ports?  This isn’t even wishful thinking – it’s just made up blather.

Port calls even in the era of COVID-19 remain vital no matter how many (or few) sailors actually depart the vessel.

So, a port call where no one leaves the ship is vital?  There has been zero historical evidence that port calls accomplish anything in the realm of international political relations and, in fact, there is much evidence that suggests that US ships sailing around the world aggravate international tensions.  Our presence in the E/S China Seas, for example, exacerbate relations with China, without a doubt.  Similarly, our presence anywhere near Iran or Russia contribute to international tensions.



Conclusion

These kinds of statements that are based on nothing but wishful thinking, feelings, and incorrect data are symptomatic of the type of officer being produced by the US Navy.  This failure or inability to recognize and acknowledge reality is why the Navy makes such consistently poor decisions.  Of course, the cynical among us might also note that Captain Hendrix’s current business position(s) are such that good relations with the Navy are important to his success and this article seems to be a public relations piece intended to promote his business ventures. 

By the way, did you notice what was missing from the Captain's discussion?  That's right … any mention of firepower.  The entire commentary was based on feelings about nebulous benefits.  That's another problem with our officer corps.  They're focused on everything but the one thing they should be focused on: combat capability.  It's a WARship, not an international symbol of a group hug.


______________________

Jerry Hendrix is a vice president with the Telemus Group, a retired U.S. Navy Captain, and a consultant to the Defense Science Board.
______________________




(1)National Review website, “FREMM Selection Signals U.S. Engagement”, Jerry Hendrix, 6-May-2020,
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/us-navy-fremm-frigate-design-selection-signals-engagement/

26 comments:

  1. I think the draft without the sonar dome is 16.75'. It will at least be able to get around the Great Lakes ;) Toronto and Montreal are pretty fun.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, since it's being built on one of the Great Lakes, one would certainly hope so. Just don't do like the LCS and run into another ship in Montreal.

      Delete
  2. The Navy is running a video that shows up in my Facebook feed from time to time. It's an interview with an FT who says the coolest part of his job is putting "warheads on foreheads." Where is that mentality among our senior officer corps? Or are they more worried about political correctness and zero defects?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Does he get paid by NR to write that? Or maybe FREMM pays him? I'm asking because it sounds to me like the kind of article you see in regular publications or Yahoo news where once in awhile they throw in a defense piece to the masses. It's just a rehashed PR news release from the OEM and for vast majority out there, it sounds great, looks like USN got it act together and makes nice with the allies so he checks all the boxes, as u know, this isnt meant for us here at Naval Matters or similar military sites, we know too much.

    ReplyDelete
  4. If you haven't caught it yet the Navy has released some info for the planned Light Amphibious Warship. From what I can tell, its an updated LST. One noticeable change is no well deck and beaching capability.

    Randall Rapp

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. An LST with no well deck and no beaching capability?

      Wonderful. One more ship from which an amphibious assault cannot be launched.

      Delete
    2. I believe they are designed to have beaching capability.

      Delete
    3. Sorry I was unclear. They will NOT have a well deck and WILL have beaching capability.

      Randall Rapp

      Delete
  5. I read that article a few days ago. You're spot on again.. It was all utter nonsense!!! Not sure what the point even was to writing it, and all the vague and often plain wrong generalities suggest little or no actual knowledge. Thanks for putting this out there...!!!

    ReplyDelete
  6. As you say very second rate article by Jerry Hendrix who seems to have influence in Congress.
    Another 'expert' Bryan Clark of the Hudson Institute article today Defence News pushing USV and SOSUS.

    PS The new FFG is 496 foot ship and several thousand tons lighter than a 509 foot IIA and as no HMS would expect draft more like 24 to 26 feet

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Burke draft to keel without the dome is 22 feet.

      Delete
    2. @ Andy M
      Checked Fincantieri quoting 23-24 foot draft for the new FFG 7,400t ship, with 400t built in for future growth, so assuming 7,000t initial FLD, 7,400t EOL?, NAVSEA only spec'd FFG(X) at 5% for Service Life Allowance whereas USN standard for SLA for surface combatants is 10%.

      Assuming the Burke draft 22 feet you quote might be for light displacement, CNO figure of Burke IIA of 30.5 feet at FLD ~9,500t with its HMS.

      Delete
  7. Very spot on. In fact Hendrix comes off looking like an idiot to which he's not, but those remarks sure look that way.

    ReplyDelete
  8. "construction will begin no later than April 2022. The first ship should be delivered in 2026 and should be operational by 2030, with final operational capability declared by 2032..."

    In another FFG article I found this...
    Can someone explain to me how a ship is delivered, and 4 years later its "operational"??? Fully operational two years later??? After a four year build, shouldnt it be ready?? We built battleships that were fully operational in that time frame!!! I don't believe its about modern complexity either. Battleships were every bit as advanced, relatively, back in their day... And they were built with crude construction methods, and none of the modularity we see today.. So what gives with the riduculous timeframes??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thats TEN YEARS to build a frigate and put it to sea!!! Seriously?? This from a country that built liberty ships in well under a month!!! I know, apples to oranges... But still, those kind of predictions are pathetic at best!!!

      Delete
    2. ARM Reformador, 3 years from contract to delivery.

      Delete
    3. JJ, I can tell you what things will need to occur from "delivery" to "operational", but I can't assess the 4 year duration. Seems long to me too! Ship is built, tested and taken to trials by the shipbuilder. After acceptance trials by INSURV, most significant deficiencies are fixed prior to a "delivery" from the builder to the Navy. They have done their job and Navy accepts the vessel as basically in compliance with the contract. At this point, the ship is not fully outfitted, crew isn't aboard yet and they have not been certified as competent by their ISIC. It's like a new car, never been driven, and your crap hasn't been put into the trunk and the glove compartment yet! So, not "operational". Delivery takes custody from the builder and allows the fitting out and crew move aboard to occur. Anyone who has ever participated in a fitting out knows what a goat rope that can be! Stores, COSAL, consumables, mattresses, brooms, etc all need to be put aboard, custody documented, and properly stowed. Some of the crews I worked with were an average age of 19, many of the sailors came straight from boot camp to their first ship. Exciting times! After move aboard (hab inspection by ISIC needed to allow sailors to live on the ship) crew certification preps and assist visits happen. Stand up effective crew responsible programs, fight a main space fire effectively, be able to navigate, etc. Once they have their "final exam" (LOA and other certs), they can leave the yard. Other production work, like important pull ahead changes (stuff happens, if people say "don't change" I'm fine with that but the fleet won't be!) and high priority items are happening, along with SOVTs for key combat and C4I capabilities. It is a BUSY time! Time from Delivery to sail away can typically be several months. For the lead ship it may drag out, depending on how many challenges they have - and there WILL be challenges. From sail away to Fleet Introduction the ship operates for around a year, doing things like CSSQT (underway Combat systems testing and trials) ship signatures characterizations (AUTEC, Deperming, RCS, etc) and building operational proficiency. For the lead ship there is also Developmental and Operational Testing needed. This is execution of the TEMP for the ship class, with COMOPTEVFOR conducting DT events and IOT&E. This could drag the time to 18 months to two years prior to an industrial availability called PSA (realistically 4 months long), preceeded by another INSURV (FCT). After the yard period, more certs, like another Lightoff Assessment (LOA if the yard period is longer than 3or 4 months (I can't remember). Then pre-deployment work ups, a declaration of IOC if the ship was found operationally effective and suitable during OT, and off she goes. Hey, 4 years doesn't seem totally unreasonable after I laid all of that out :). AEGIS was different - FOA and his whole team had their stuff together. They did things like live firing exercises prior to delivery, which nobody else does, to speed the time to War Ready. Anyway, sorry for the novel, but I believe you asked. Cheers.

      Delete
  9. USS Arleigh Burke Ordered April 85, launched Sep 89, Comm Jul 91. Deploy 93.
    It took 6 years for completely new design from order to commissioning

    ReplyDelete
  10. https://news.usni.org/2020/05/11/video-research-groups-find-wreck-of-unsinkable-battleship-uss-nevada#more-76281

    " “Nevada is an iconic ship that speaks to American resilience and stubbornness. Rising from its watery grave after being sunk at Pearl Harbor, it survived torpedoes, bombs, shells and two atomic blasts"


    CNO's post regarding warfighting and this UNSI article today show that today's ships are not built for war.

    Destroyers today are roughly the same size of WW2 battleships, but weigh 7000-11000 tons, as against 27000 tons for the battleship.

    I think we can guess the extra 15000-20000 tons makes the ship more resilient, and is missing from today's ships.

    Andrew

    ReplyDelete
  11. Do any of them actually believe this stuff they are putting out? I mean, seriously?

    ReplyDelete
  12. I have another question. What does any of that mean? Or perhaps, does it mean anything?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you're referring to the article referenced in the post, it means that we've been developing officers who have no focus on combat and have not been required to use history, facts, and logic in their thinking.

      Delete
    2. That would be my conclusion.

      But I bet their Kumbaya training is up to snuff.

      Delete
  13. I just got this month’s Naval Institute Proceedings, and there is a one-page summation by Eric Wertheim of the FFG(X). This is the first time I’ve really taken a closer look at it, and I must say that I am appalled by some of what I found:

    First, it’s not really an ASW platform. It doesn’t have a bow sonar, or torpedo tubes, or apparently ASROC. And it doesn’t have any kind of short-range ASW weapon like an RBU rocket launcher, which ComNavOps appears to think belongs on any ASW ship (and I agree). It does have VDS and a towed array, but that’s not enough to make it a competent ASW ship, particularly when lacking an appropriate ASW weapons suit.

    Second, the 57mm popgun is hardly a credible gun weapon. IMO it should have at least a 5””/54 mount.

    Third, it has one RAM mounted aft, but no Phalanx or other close-in rapid-fire gun system. There appear to be some manual machine-gun mounts, but those aren’t the same thing.

    Fourth, it has a 32-cell VLS. I’d prefer to see more. The Italian version has a 5 inch gun and a potential modification to expand the number of VLS cells, so more can be done.

    Fifth, the radar is the SPY-6. Given well-documented maintenance problems with the SPY system, I’m not sure I would have chosen it on a ship this small with that small a crew. Also, the SPY-6 antenna array requires a lot of high weight, and I wonder if that is what constrained some of the other systems. Plus, just a personal preference, I prefer that not every ship in the task force have the same radar, because that simplifies the enemy’s countermeasures problem.

    Here’s what I would do:

    - Push the bridge superstructure back 20 or so feet. That makes room to upgrade the gun to 5” and add another 16 or so VLS cells, plus a couple of RBU-type launchers. It also cuts out a bunch of high weight, which appears to be a consideration in some short cuts with other systems. You have to rearrange space below decks, and maybe you give up the gelato or cappuccino bars, but I think we can survive that. I’m not opposed to habitability. In fact I see it as even a combat capability in the sense that better habitability can help retain more highly qualified repair and maintenance personnel, to go along with more room for repair and supply spaces, leading to a higher state of equipment readiness. But I think it can be overdone, and probably was on this ship as it stands.
    - Give it a bow sonar, torpedo tubes, and the ability to launch ASROC from its VLS, so it is a capable ASW platform. I am still favoring a smaller and cheaper ASW frigate to be the outer ring of the escort force, and to be your primary ASW platform, but I still see a need for some GP escorts, and to be truly GP they need to have credible ASW capability as well as AAW/ASuW.
    - Go with something like the APAR/SMART-L system to replace the SPY-6. OK, disadvantages are that you expand the supply chain and have to train technicians on a new piece of equipment to support it. Good news is that it seems to be more reliable than the SPY family, there is at least some redundancy between APAR and SMART-L (although if APAR fails, you may need some backup fire control systems to use with SMART-L), and in a task force you have two different AAW radar systems, so if the bad guys figure out how to jam one, you could still have the other. I don’t know exactly what that does to high weight, but given the volume of the SPY housing, and the fact that I have eliminated a bunch of superstructure, I think we are probably okay.
    - Add a couple of Phalanx on port and starboard sides amidships. It looks like there is plenty of room. I don’t know if room can be made for a second RAM forward, but I would at least look at the possibility.

    With a real gun, a real ASW capability, more VLS cells, and more self-protection, this thing starts to look like a warship. If it’s going to be 7400 tons, I think it needs at least those capabilities.

    ReplyDelete

Comments will be moderated for posts older than 7 days in order to reduce spam.