The US military recognizes that the geography of the Pacific region dictates that a war with China will be a naval and air war. What’s more, an astute - or just semi-literate – naval analyst will recognize that the war will be, substantially, a submarine war. Of course, US Navy admirals do not qualify even for the semi-literate classification so who knows whether they recognize this or not? Regardless, the rest of us recognize the primacy of the submarine in this conflict. With that understanding, let’s take a closer look at submarine warfare and its counter, anti-submarine warfare (ASW), in a war with China.
Numbers
The obvious starting point is numbers and both sides have submarines – something the US Navy seems to forget/ignore so let’s check each side’s respective submarine numbers.
China
China has around 64 submarines of all types with the majority being SSKs. Excluding the SSBNs, the total is 56. Obviously, it is very difficult to know exact numbers and there is some uncertainty about the active/inactive status of some vessels. Acknowledging that, the numbers break down as follows:
|
Type |
Class |
Qty. |
|
SSN |
Han class (may be inactive/reserve) |
3 |
|
SSN |
Shang I class (Type-093) |
2 |
|
SSN |
Shang II class (Type-093A) |
4 |
|
SSBN |
Jin class (Type-094) |
8 |
|
SSK |
Ming class (Type-035) |
4 |
|
SSK |
Song class (Type-039) |
13 |
|
SSK |
Yuan class (Type-039A/B) |
18 |
|
SSK |
Kilo class (Project 877/Project 636/Project 636M) |
12 |
|
|
Total |
64 |
In addition, China maintains many older SSKs in reserve status and these could play a pivotal role in a sustained war after both sides lose many of the front line submarines.
United States
The US currently has 68 active submarines that break down as follows:
SSBN 14
SSGN 4
SSN 50
Of course, unless we enter a nuclear war with China, the 14 SSBN are of no combat use which leaves us with 54 combat submarines compared to China’s 56.
In addition, the US is still on the long anticipated downward trend which is projected by the Navy’s latest 30 year plan to bottom out at a low of 46 SSN in 2028 and will not reached a sustained 50+ level again until 2034. This also assumes no additional early retirements – not a bet I’d care to take.
So, at the moment, the US and China have equal numbers of submarines with China being mostly an SSK force and the US being exclusively nuclear.
SSK
United States naval observers keep clamoring for SSKs because they are so quiet and effective. Turning it around, that must mean that Chinese SSKs are a major threat to us.
Given the geography of the East and South China Seas, where combat can be reasonably anticipated to take place, China’s conventional submarines have significant advantages related to acoustics and stealth. The traditional disadvantages of SSKs – range, endurance, low speed, etc. don’t really apply when operating so close to home ports. Therefore, China, with a fleet of 47 SSKs enjoys a potentially significant tactical advantage, being able to saturate chokepoints and operating areas with extremely quiet, nearly undetectable submarines that suffer few of the SSK disadvantages.
Should the Chinese submarines attempt to venture out from the first island chain, the advantage would flip to the US with its nuclear subs.
![]() |
| Chinese Yuan Class SSK |
SOSUS
China has established a network of SOSUS-like listening arrays throughout the first island chain.[1, 2] US submarines will have a difficult time penetrating the first island chain and operating undetected.
On a related note, China has acknowledged having listening stations monitoring undersea activity around Guam.
The Chinese government has revealed the existence of two underwater sensors situated between the United States island of Guam and the South China Sea. …
The state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences only disclosed the pair of acoustic sensors earlier in January 2018, but had been operating them since 2016, according to a report from the South China Morning Post. One of them is in the Challenger Deep, located at the southern end of the Marianas Trench and the deepest known point on earth, and the other is situated further west near the island of Yap, part of the Federated States of Micronesia. Both reportedly can pick up acoustic signatures more than 620 miles away, putting them within range of Guam and the major strategic U.S. naval base at Apra Harbor.[3]
Similarly, the US and Japan have reportedly established a network of listening arrays throughout the first island chain and extending into the Indian Ocean.[4] Chinese subs will have a difficult time operating undetected.
Since both sides operate listening arrays, this would seem to favor neither side. However, the extreme quiet of the SSKs might seem to offer an advantage to China.
ASW
The US has much greater experience and institutional knowledge about ASW although the Navy seems intent on squandering that advantage by refusing to produce combat-effective ASW assets. For example, the P-3 Orion was not suited to operating in contested areas and replacing it with the nearly identical P-8 Poseidon was foolish. The LCS-ASW variant has been officially abandoned, leaving the Navy with no dedicated ASW surface vessel. The Burkes, while ASW-capable, in theory, are woefully deficient in training and are far too expensive to risk playing tag with Chinese SSKs.
To compensate, the US needs to focus its submarine force o on ASW, dropping strike, ISR, special ops, and any other non-ASW mission. This singular focus is necessary to produce maximum competency and thereby negate China’s SSK advantages. New submarine designs and construction with this singular focus would have the effect of making subs cheaper (no VLS) and, therefore, more numerous. It also makes them smaller and quieter. All else being equal, smaller is harder to detect than larger. VLS serves no purpose for the submarine’s main mission of ASW or even its secondary mission of anti-surface warfare. If we want land attack subs then we should build dedicated SSGNs.
The US desperately needs to begin realistic, intensive ASW training using actual SSKs as enemy surrogates. Some time ago we leased the services of an SSK for such training but we ended that practice and no longer have dedicated training against SSKs, as far as I know.
Where is our Top Gun for submarines where dedicated enemy sub simulators and surrogates operated by exquisitely trained instructors specializing in enemy tactics teach submariners how the enemy will fight and how to defeat them? We don’t have such training. The Navy has made noises about establishing such an organization but has, thus far, failed to provide actual SSKs and dedicated OPFOR crews to man them. Without that, any minor training efforts are just paper exercises.
Closely related to ASW training is the practice of anti-ASW, meaning the evasion and escape from, and defeat of, enemy ASW forces? To the best of my knowledge we do not practice that at all.
Confined Waters
Confined, often shallower waters present unique characteristics when compared to the open ocean, deep sea waters that US submarines are used to operating in. Salinity, density, thermoclines, depth, conductivity, acoustic propagation, etc. are all different inside the East and South China Seas. This confers a familiarity that gives Chinese submarines a ‘home field’ advantage. Are we actively and aggressively collecting data on the physical characteristics of the waters inside the first island chain? I would hope so but I’m not aware of any sustained program along those lines.
The differing physical characteristics dictate different submarine tactics than those used in open ocean scenarios. Are we practicing confined water (E/S China Sea) submarine tactics? Again, I would hope so but there are no programs that I’m aware of. While there may well be physical characteristics data collection that I’m not aware of, it is far less likely that there are tactics programs that I’m unaware of. I know for a certainty that there is no equivalent to Top Gun.
Summary
Both sides have equal numbers of submarines with China leaning heavily towards SSKs while the US favors nuclear subs. Both sides have listening arrays which possibly confers a slight advantage to the Chinese SSKs.
One would hope that we are diligently working on locating Chinese SOSUS arrays and have lans to destroy them at the outset of war. Finding and planning/training for the Chinese SOSUS destruction would be a worthy mission for SEALS instead of being a land combat force in the Middle East.
Neither side possesses useful, tactically relevant ASW forces. P-8s cannot survive in the anticipated operating area. US surface forces are nearly inoperable as regards ASW. When war comes we will not risk Burkes conducting ASW and, indeed, would be foolish to do so. Burkes are nearly non-functional due to lack of training. The LCS has been eliminated as an ASW asset.
On the other hand, China is completely without submarine or ASW experience and likely has little acoustic data on US submarines.
The winner of the submarine/ASW fight will win the war and the winner will be the side that trains the hardest and most realistically. While I have no knowledge about Chinese submarine warfare training, I can say that the US is not training hard, is not training productively, and is not training realistically. That doesn’t bode well for us.
We just don’t seem to be serious about war.
__________________________________
[1]Forbes website, “China Builds Surveillance Network In South China Sea”, H. I. Sutton, 5-Aug-2020,
[2]http://www.hisutton.com/Cn_Underwater_Great_Wall.html
[3]Drive website, “China Reveals It Has Two Underwater Listening Devices Within Range of Guam”, Joseph Trevithick, 30-Jun-2019,
[4]https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/fish-hook-sea-bed-sosus-network.448398/












