The introduction of the Royal Navy’s HMS Dreadnought in 1906 revolutionized naval warship design and instantaneously obsoleted every existing battleship. The Dreadnought story is commonly available and I won’t repeat it, here. You can research it yourself, at your leisure. It is also not the intent of this post to debate the merits or drawbacks of any particular aspect of Dreadnought’s design. Instead, let’s examine the lessons that we can learn from Dreadnought’s story.
HMS Dreadnought |
Instantaneous Obsolescence – The Dreadnought design was so advanced that it instantaneously rendered every existing battleship obsolete. That achievement, however, required multiple significant technological advances all packaged into one ship and that was the key: packaging. The individual technologies were not unique; 12 inch guns and steam turbines already existed. The achievement was not the individual technologies but, rather, the packaging of that combination that made for a unique and revolutionary achievement.
The lesson, here, is that unique and revolutionary advances don’t necessarily have to come from entirely new technologies but can come from inspired packaging of existing technologies. Developing all new technologies is incredibly expensive, time consuming, and difficult (for example, Ford EMALS, Ford AAG, Zumwalt Advanced Gun System, Ford elevators, LCS NLOS, etc.) but inspired packaging of existing technologies to achieve new capabilities is quick and cheap, needing only inspiration which, admittedly, is too often in short supply.
Offsets – Dreadnought created a tactical and possibly strategic offset for the UK which conferred a military capability and advantage that no other country could match – an offset. This is the dream of the US military which has become caught up in the pursuit of an almost magical, mythical offset so profound that it will guarantee our military dominance for decades to come. Of course, this is delusional. Offsets never last long enough to offer any long lasting benefit because other countries instantly copy whatever the breakthrough was. At best, the supposed offset might last a few years and could prove useful if a military need just happened to arise during that short window. The US development and use of stealth is an example of such a short-lived offset that just happened to coincide with the Desert Storm conflict and thus proved useful (the F-117 aircraft). In the event, Dreadnought was copied – and improved on – by other countries in a matter of a few years and the UK’s offset vanished before they could take advantage of it.
It is instructive to note that Dreadnought’s short lived advantage strongly argues against long ship service lives but that’s another topic.
The lesson, here, is that offsets are fleeting and confer no lasting advantage and, therefore, the obsessive pursuit of an offset is delusional and pointless.
Firepower – This is self-evident. Dreadnought’s increase in firepower – through number of guns more than the size - was a massive step forward. Firepower superiority is a timeless warfare requirement and a lesson that should never need repeating and yet the US military is currently abandoning firepower in favor of networks and a mythical, magical, information offset that can never exist.
The lesson, here, is that firepower – the ability to destroy the enemy’s people and things – is the only military advantage that has any meaning or validity because it is the ultimate arbiter of military success or failure. Yes, we all understand the role of logistics and industrial production but even those are pointless unless their end result is the delivery of overwhelming firepower. And yes, we all understand the usefulness of battlefield intelligence as a supporting enhancement or enabler to firepower, not a replacement for it.
Speed - What made Dreadnought such a massive step forward was the combination of firepower and speed. Speed allowed the ship to use its massive firepower to greater advantage than any other existing ship. For example, Dreadnought could maintain a range advantage, sail out of danger, choose the time and circumstances of engagement, cross the ‘T’ at will, and simply dictate the course of a battle due to significantly superior speed.
Speed enabled Dreadnought’s firepower to be used to its maximum advantage. Speed was an enabler and enhancer of the ship’s firepower.
The lesson, here, is not speed (though speed is always nice!) but the recognition that secondary characteristics or capabilities that can enhance the primary characteristic can be just as effective as a new, primary capability. In our pursuit of ever larger, more powerful, longer ranged weapons (I’m looking at you, Standard and cruise missiles) we should not overlook the secondary means to more effectively employ the primary effect. It is also worth noting that secondary effects are often (always?) cheaper and easier to develop than primary effects.
What this is implying is that tactics and enhancements that can better utilize existing weapons may be just as important, or more so, than trying to develop bigger weapons. The Navy is exclusively focused on bigger weapons (well, actually, bigger networks) rather than better tactics and enhancements. In fact, disturbingly, I’m unaware of any rigorous tactical development efforts within the US Navy.
Now, for a bit of fun …
Example Implications To Ponder
Battleship - What if we re-introduced a modernized Iowa-ish battleship? It would instantly render all existing warships obsolete with its massive firepower – gun and missile – and incredible armor. A ship that could effortlessly sink any existing ship and shrug off most damage from any existing weapon system would certainly confer a Dreadnought-type advantage for several years until other countries could build their own, similar ships and, given the prevailing anti-battleship sentiment it might well confer an advantage of a decade or more until other countries became convinced that it was a good idea.
UAV Carrier – UAVs and aircraft carriers both exist but what if we packaged the two together? A dedicated UAV carrier carrying hundreds of small surveillance and ?combat? UAVs would be a highly effective force multiplier.
Armored Sensors – Armor and sensors have both been around forever but what if we packaged sensors inside armored pop-up or pop-open enclosures instead of mounting them out in the open, totally exposed? This would eliminate the possibility of sensors being destroyed by simple shrapnel from fragmentation missiles and would confer an instant and significant combat advantage to the ship that couldn’t be easily blinded and mission killed.
Long Range ASW – Aircraft and ASW sensors have been around for many decades but what if we packaged the two together and mounted ASW sensors on a long ranged, fixed wing aircraft. Such an aircraft, with its speed, range, and endurance could conduct ASW operations far beyond the range and endurance limits of ASW helicopters and far beyond the range of escort ships. Its speed of relocation would greatly expand the coverage area, as well. ASW aircraft would push the ASW detection and engagement points much further out and, while not rendering submarines irrelevant, would significantly increase the challenge for enemy submarines. Okay, I know that we already had such an aircraft – the S-3 Viking - but a good idea is still a good idea and bringing a good idea back can provide a profound advantage even if we once had it and foolishly gave it up.
I can go on listing potential good ideas along these lines but you get the idea and you can come up with your own. The point is that there are plenty of advantages to be gained from simple repackaging of existing technologies. We don’t always have to obsessively pursue leap-ahead technology that never seems to pan out. Perhaps we should concentrate on existing technologies, tactics, and secondary enhancements and allow someone like, oh, say China to take the lead in developing new technologies and then simply copy them if/when they’ve invested billions and wrung out the problems for a new technology? Hmm … there’s something to think about … let China be our R&D organization instead of the other way around. But, I digress …
Many ships were indeed rendered obsolete, however, many of those obsolete vessels managed to continue to serve for many reasons including that you fight with the ships you have, not the ships you Wish you had. Many sailed forward through the first world war on into the second world war. Firepower was updated and changed as required and availability allowed. Second tier ships can still perform tasks that dont require the newest and best vessels. Even as we need new, updated ships with stronger, better firepower we still need to maintain the existing ships with proper upkeep and training for ship and crew together.
ReplyDeleteSecond tier ships are a resource we've forgotten the value of. Having an older platform is better than none. Spruances, Perrys, even Knoxs would be nice to have in the mothball fleet. Certainly all the Ticos, even the Mk26 ships would be useful. I read the other day that someone suggested the Ticos that are about to be decommissioned be moved to Guam, and moored there as a ready made AegisAshore of sorts. Seems like a better idea than scrapping them, which I imagine the Navy will push for to avoid their reintroduction, regardless of them supposedly going to mothballs.
Delete"many of those obsolete vessels managed to continue to serve"
Delete"Second tier ships can still perform tasks that dont require the newest and best vessels."
Absolutely and a very good reminder! Similarly, the US cage mast battleships sunk at Pearl Harbor were refloated and refitted and managed to provide excellent service.
In that vein, the old WWI four stackers pressed back into service and used in Lend-Lease are another fantastic example of very old/outdated platforms pulling their weight...
DeleteHow about the long range ASW plane be a flying boat? It would have even greater endurance and could have the superior capability of a hull mounted sonar versus expendable sonobouys. Or Replace your sonobouys with small amphibious UAVs.
ReplyDeleteWe're looking to operate in the first island chain theatre. Where would such flying boats be based?
DeleteHow would such flying boats support mid-ocean task forces?
Regarding the long range ASW, I understand there are still nearly 100 S-3 aircraft stored at Davis Montham, and many still have thousands of useful hours on their airframes. They've been suggested as tankers, which seems a great idea.
ReplyDeleteQuestion: could they also be used for ASW (their original function) or is their equipment for that now too old and obsolete? If it's too old, would more modern equipment fit?
There's nothing wrong with the concept of bringing back S-3s. It's just a matter of the cost/benefit consideration and, without actual data, I can't answer that.
DeleteIf it were up to me, I'd design a new S-3 with a semi-stealthy airframe and have it in the fleet in under five years.
CNO, I'm not sure if you remember but the original CONOPS of the Ford Class (in the video by Capt T.Manvel) included or partly designed with an S-3 Viking derivative or an air-frame with the same mission in mind. So, at least, the Navy at the time believe the concept was viable.
DeleteI wonder what role could the UAV (or UUV) play in partially supplementing the S-3 Viking? Maybe dropping sonobuoy and torpedoes and have the crew focused on studying the information?
"I wonder what role could the UAV (or UUV) play in partially supplementing the S-3 Viking?"
DeleteA UUV? No role at all. The speed of a UUV is simply far too slow. UUVs operate around 5 kts as compared to the speed of advance of a surface group of 18+ kts, often 20-25+kts.
A UAV? A very limited role since they lack any onboard data interpretation and control. Having to constantly broadcast real time data is begging for the enemy to pinpoint you. Also, UAVs, unless you build them the same size as a Viking or helo, don't have much of a payload. The hangar space consumed by a small UAV is not justified by the limited ASW capability it offers.
I wonder if the V22 Osprey might be a candidate for this function. That would mean they could also operate from smaller carriers (like the LHA's or even an escort carrier for merchant convoys) in addition to the catapult equipped carriers.
DeleteI wonder if modifying the V22 Osprey for this function might be workable. It would mean that it would be usable off smaller carriers (like LHA's or small escort carriers for convoys) in addition to large carriers with catapults.
DeleteS-3 Vikings were great platforms. I don't think there would be any issue fitting modern equipment into the available space. Certainly the computers and displays would be far more powerful while being smaller and using significantly less power.
DeleteSadly, with the current leadership, I fear the the Navy would be entranced by the idea of a Hornet variant, a F/S-18G. As the new variant would be a Hornet taking on the old mission of the Viking, I propose the name 'Horking'. Nah, even the current woke Navy could never be that stupid, could they?
Err, S/F-18H. 'G' is taken.
DeleteI like the idea of an S-3 with some stealth.
DeleteMy only question is, what would that cost?
Clearly the S-3 would be a great platform for ASW, and also possibly refueling tanker and electronic surveillance.
But the navy also desperately needs a 5th generation fighter.
Judging by the F-22, a squadron of 12 would probably be about $2.5 billion.
That is going to soak up a lot of aircraft acquisition money.
Would it add much cost to the S-3 to incorporate some stealth?
Lutefisk
"Would it add much cost to the S-3 to incorporate some stealth?"
DeleteWhen I discuss stealth for an 'S-3', I'm talking about simple airframe shaping; no exotic coatings or anything that drives up the cost. Simple shaping won't give ultimate super-stealth but that isn't needed for an ASW aircraft. Just simple shaping stealth.
@CNO what an excellent post!! Dreadnought is such a GREAT example of somthing game changing, created out of the parts bin. Just a little rearranging and rethought and boom!! Somthing revolutionary... Although to be fair, everyone else had drawn similar conclusions, and other nation's all-big gun ships were either building or on the drawing board when she was introduced. Somthing else to note about her though is her build time. She was built very quickly, and that was an opportunity largely due to there being nothing really new in her at a system and component level. Being able to see and seize that opportunity is invaluable, and looking for a future Dreadnought, rather than some new science fiction widget, would serve the Navy well...
ReplyDeleteNot to mention the UK was still a Navy first military with a huge ship building capacity with no airforce and a tiny cheap army due to only infantry and limited artillery.
Delete" Being able to see and seize that opportunity is invaluable"
DeleteYes, yes, yes! The RN was focused on preparing for combat whereas our naval leaders are focused on everything but combat. You can't come up with good combat ideas if your focus is elsewhere. The Navy desperately needs a combat focus and mindset.
You forgot the role of focus. Previous battleship designs tried to have a gun for every occasion. Dreadnoughts had their main guns and then skipped to much smaller secondaries. Not trying to do everything allows you to do something very, very well.
ReplyDelete"Not trying to do everything allows you to do something very, very well."
DeleteExactly! This is the single function theme that I keep hammering on - have a primary function and do it exquisitely well.
"Hmm … there’s something to think about … let China be our R&D organization instead of the other way around. "
ReplyDeleteI'm sure the Chinese would like nothing more than to be leading the pack R&D wise, they may eventually get there too. Isn't that whats happening with hypersonics? Russia & China seem to be ahead on that one - even though the US has done a lot of research.
In the scenarios where a hot war does not start, and given the possibility of a nuclear escalation everyone will be doing their best not to escalate, then any small contained aggression will be to the advantage of the party with the highest tech.
"any small contained aggression will be to the advantage of the party with the highest tech."
DeleteLike the US in Vietnam?
Like the US in Afghanistan?
Like England in the US Revolutionary War?
Like …
The advantage - ALWAYS - goes to the party with the motivation and determination. Of course, logistics and industry are good to have, too! Technology is usually the least important factor.
he examples you mention are actual hot wars, just not directly with a peer but via proxy or with a much lesser foe, but hot wars nevertheless. What I am referring to is more incidents or special ops missions or special missions that neither side admits to or the occasional skirmish or isolated aerial dogfight where (lets say F35's decidedly trounce some Chinese J20's (just an an example)). Then the losing side may hesitate, or give ground as its been demonstrated that their tech is not the best there is.
DeleteThat should start as 'The examples ...'. No edit button!
DeleteOkay, I understand what you're saying … I think. However, even more so in those 'lesser' cases, equipment is the least important factor in success. Training, motivation, planning, preparation, and determination are far more important. I'm pretty sure any SpecOps person would agree wholeheartedly with that. It's why we train those people to fight hand-to-hand, for those occasions when technology fails but the mission must succeed, anyway.
DeleteThe sniper crawling around in the bush, looking for that one shot is dependent on how advanced his rifle is. His success is dependent on his training, his bushcraft, his movement/stealth skills, and his understanding of the mindset and behavior of his target.
Check around and find someone who's been in those situations and talk about with them. I'm confident you'll find the discussion to be eye-opening regarding technology as a factor in success.
Consider Desert Storm … If the Iraqis had had our equipment and we had had theirs, the outcome would have still been the same. It was our superior training and motivation that won that conflict, not our equipment. Our superior equipment simply made the end result that much quicker.
I'll go so far as to ask you to contemplate whether you've fallen prey to the same failing that the military has: the belief that technology is the solution to every problem instead of training, maintenance, experience, determination, and motivation? Just think about it …
I suppose I should have added "all else being equal".
DeleteOops! should be, "is NOT dependent"
Delete"I suppose I should have added "all else being equal"."
DeleteEven then, it's the reliability, maintainability, ease of use, and ruggedness of the technology, not the degree of advancement.
This may seem like I'm beating on this but it's actually a major point. The US military has completely bought into the "technology solves every problem" paradigm and it's completely wrong. We've got incredibly advanced radars that we can't maintain and are degraded fleet wide because of our inability to maintain it. We've got destroyers colliding with giant, hulking cargo ships despite the most advanced sensors in the world (except good old fashioned human lookouts who would have spotted the oncoming cargo ships). We've got F-22/35 stealth aircraft that struggle to achieve 50% fully mission capable rates. We've got the most advanced AAW cruisers in the world that the Navy wants to get rid of because they cost too much to operate. I can go on and on but I trust you get the idea.
Despite the most technologically advanced military in the world, we just got our assses kicked out of Afghanistan by a bunch of tribal thugs.
Despite the most technologically advanced military in the world, we have a hollow force that is years behind on maintenance, has submarines tied up pierside for years waiting for a turn at maintenance, has almost zero readiness, has sailors surrendering to nearly unarmed Iranians, has ships running aground on documented reefs, can't conduct a proper anchoring evolution, and on and on.
Technology is nearly last on my list of desirable characteristics of a good military.
Don't buy into the same flawed thinking the military has.
"Even then, it's the reliability, maintainability, ease of use, and ruggedness of the technology, not the degree of advancement."
DeleteThat entire post, it hit the nail on the head exactly.
Lutefisk
Pre-Dreadnought the UK did follow a pattern of conservative choices in design compromises, like states in a superior position before it (and since). However, in 1900-04 this was in the context of superior shipbuilding capability. 1901-1905 the UK launched 60% of the world's shipping tonnage. And it's yards were almost twice as productive (in terms of tonnage per worker on the books) as it's nearest rival (in this case the USA). The UK could afford to delay or avoid reform, on the basis that they could play "catch-up" if a rival developed an offset. Not developing the HMS Dreadnought was an option they could have chosen.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the current-day US is in a very different situation relative to it's rivals. It is less well-served by the status quo than the UK in 1900.
I would add to focus was also speed of execution. Dreadnought was actually a new concept in production speed, UK didn't take 20 years to design and build her like Ford or F35. She wouldn't have been as revolutionary if she had taken as long as US DoD drags out programs....we definitely need to get back to faster execution BUT at the same time avoid concurrency which seems to be still alive and well inside DoD.
ReplyDeleteWhen we entered WW2, the Japanese Zero was a much better plane than the F4F Wildcat. New Tactics helped to improve our pilots chances against a battle hardened enemy with superior equipment. Our torpedo planes were not terribly effective and get they were used til the end of the war along with torpedoes that were sketchy at best. The PT boats might have had better performance had our torpedoes not sucked gutter water. That said, once the planes were in the air and the torpedoes i. The water, they still had to be respected because the enemy never knew if the torpedoes were duds or the planes were flown by aces or rookies. Our navy needs to learn to use (and maintain) the equipment on hand even as we try to develop newer better equipment. Tactics can help overcome shortfalls in tech and equipment, but, only of they recognize that firepower is the bottom line. If you don't kill the enemy, they will kill you, most assuredly.
ReplyDelete(Don McCollor)...The UAV carrier is the best idea of them all. Like an escort carrier - and the pilots do not even have to even be aboard the ship. I think you are selling drones short on ASW. Larger ones are faster, and might could be able to carry MAD and some sonar sensors. Enough to show a Viking something suspicious for better investigation...
ReplyDelete" I think you are selling drones short on ASW."
DeleteOkay, that's a nice, generic, platitude that is backed up by nothing. However, I'm willing to be convinced. Spec it out. What size UAV are you envisioning? What specific equipment would it carry? How would it and the control ship communicate without giving their positions away?
MAD is not a detection technique. It is a confirmation technique and has fallen out of use. Perhaps there is a limited use for it in shallow water ASW where subs are nearer the surface? I suspect not, though, since no one seems to use it much.
What endurance/range would this UAV have?
Everyone who suggests using UAVs for ASW falls apart when asked for specifics. So, make the case with some details and don't forget to factor in the lack of weapons to prosecute upon detection and the difficulty in holding contact while waiting for a weapon platform asset to show up.
Finally, compare the UAV benefits to the full size SH-60 type helo benefits that will be lost to allow hangar space for the UAV.
I look forward to seeing what you come up with.
Pop-up sensors ... It seems like a good idea not to loose the ability to detect things from a small shrapnel but how do you decide to put them down ? What is (are) the criteria ?
ReplyDeleteI am not against it, I'm just asking.
D614-D623
" but how do you decide to put them down"
DeleteThe sensors (presumably we're talking mainly radar now) are used for relatively long range detection and tracking. Once the targets get inside the horizon, tracking and engagement transitions from large radar arrays to smaller radars and self-contained radars like CIWS and SeaRAM. At that point, the larger radars would retract, being no longer needed.
This retraction function could be coded into the system to happen automatically with, of course, a manual override.
You can see, then, that a ship ought to have three types/levels of radar:
1. Long range, large arrays (like Aegis SPY-x)
2. Smaller, shorter range arrays or rotating radars such as TRS-3D/4D or similar
3. Self-contained radars such as on CIWS and SeaRAM
How about a cheap rusty old container vessel with camoflaged armor, registered in Venezuela, filled top to bottom with ER-MLRS and a suite of UAVs for targeting/sensing....all designed to hold manmade islands in the SCS under threat?
ReplyDeleteOr would they just be sitting ducks?
There's not going to be any "innocuous" containers just sitting there in a war zone, and were there any they'd be targeted as well.
DeleteWith the new Defense bill and the new America class LHA held within it, and the Marine Corps desires to break away from the huge deck amphibs.......maybe we have just found our "UAV Carrier". All the troop berthings could be converted to UAV workshops and storage.
ReplyDeleteI read Scott's 50 Years in the Royal Navy.
ReplyDeleteI came away with one large lesson. When Scott was a new officer Captains and first officers were judged mostly on the paintwork of the vessel and the state of the men's bedding.
Gunnery was strictly controlled locally, and it was common for the training ammo to be sold instead of used, to purchase extra paint.
Scott was one of the maverick officers who tried to get effective gunnery, but was strongly opposed. So much so that simple, effective devices invented by officers for better gunnery would be automatically denied and then hidden away at the admiralty offices to prevent their use.
The reason, of course, was that the suppliers wanted to sell their less effective but higher margin products.
The same thing happens today, except the senior officers, not just the civilians at the pentagon, are in on the take from the defense companies.
With the idea of building somthing powerful, but without any revolutionary systems, only what we have in the "parts bin", I have some ideas. (Funny that single purpose, simple ships come to mind!!)
ReplyDelete1) Battlegroup Close In Defense Ship: Id doodled this out as an unmanned platform earlier, but could be crewed also. Highlights include 7X Goalkeepers and 4X SeaRAM. Slightly bigger than a Fletcher, and about $290M. CVNs would sleep better at night being flanked by a couple of those.
2) Gunfire Support Ship: Dust off and modernize the prototype 8in from the USS Hull. Double it up in a 5"/54-ish twin turret. The ship underneath would be basically a Gearing with modern propulsion and up to date fire control/counterbattery radar. A relatively small ship with some armor and 8-10 8in guns would replace lots of missing firepower.
NOTE: #1 and #2 would not be ships that "deploy". With the exception of occaisional training and testing, I picture them being in a reserve status until needed, possibly even as part of the prepositioned fleet.
3) UAV Carrier. This gives a nod to the CVEs of the past. In order to create quantity over quality, Id base this on a freighter-esque hull for internal storage and workshop volume (although without all the legacy systems, even a Perry hull might be enough?), but with DD powertrain to give speeds that allow them to operate with battle groups. NO electromagnetic elevators, btw.
4) SSGN FltII: This one's a stretch, but... Seeing the decline coming in missile tube count, repurposing the other Ohios could be a big reversal. While just refuelling and converting them might be possible, Id look at building a new "section" based on Virginia(Columbia?), to graft into the ship, in effect creating a new ship with a nearly-new lifespan. Being generally "modular", this could potentially be done without hugely upsetting current production lines. Id keep half of them in reserve status, and the active ones Blue/Gold crewed, so they could all be activated when the need arises.
Armored Censors
ReplyDeleteThere is a depiction of a 4-panel TRS-4D radar in a sort of line-drawing housing at the below-linked website.
https://www.hensoldt.net/products/radar-iff-and-datalink/trs-4d-fixed-panel/
Imagine that housing as an armored box with drop down armored doors to protect the radar panels from shrapnel.
Lutefisk
"UAV Carrier. This gives a nod to the CVEs of the past. In order to create quantity over quality, Id base this on a freighter-esque hull for internal storage and workshop volume (although without all the legacy systems, even a Perry hull might be enough?), but with DD powertrain to give speeds that allow them to operate with battle groups. NO electromagnetic elevators, btw."
ReplyDeleteIf I was going to put this UAV carrier into service, I'd build it on a Des Moines class hull.
The reason for this is that my concept would be to use this to provide situational awareness for surface battle groups that don't include an aircraft carrier.
The Des Moines hull would afford this ship the speed to keep up with the battle group.
It would also be my intention that these battle groups would be going into harm's way and the armor would give these ships survivability.
I would fit them out with an angled flight deck and island, just like a little Nimitz.
For one thing that layout provides for the efficient handling of aircraft.
For another it might work as a confusing vis-mod for an enemy.
Of course I would already be building Des Moines heavy cruisers so the hull would already be in production and should be easily adaptable.
Lutefisk