ComNavOps
has frequently pointed out the disconnect between the Navy’s dependence on UAVs
for reconnaissance, surveillance, and targeting and the utter lack of
survivability of UAVs over a modern, peer-contested battlefield.
For
example, the Navy believes that individual ships with very short range sensor
suites, like the LCS, will be able to conduct long range, anti-surface strikes
using remote targeting provided by various slow, non-stealthy, non-maneuverable
UAVs. Would we allow the Chinese to use
such UAVs to target us? Of course
not! We’d casually shoot them down at
our leisure and yet we’re basing an entire distributed lethalilty concept on
these UAVs.
I’ve stated
repeatedly - and I guess I just did again! – that UAVs are not survivable over
the modern battlefield. On the other
hand, ComNavOps has also called for UAV carriers and vastly greater numbers of
UAVs on various ships. This would seem
to be a contradiction. Are UAVs useful
on the modern battlefield or not?
The answer
is yes – if we use them properly. In
fact, not only are they potentially useful, I’ll go so far as to say they’re
absolutely vital. All right, how do I
reconcile my conflicting statements?
Well, I’ve already given the answer – it’s in the numbers.
Individual
UAVs are not survivable but – and this is the key “but” – large numbers of UAVs
are.
Want to
scout that area for expected enemy ships?
Don’t send one UAV – it will get shot down before it can accomplish
anything – send one or two dozen! The
laws of probability ensure that at least some will survive long enough to
accomplish the mission.
Of course,
this implies that the UAVs have to be cheap enough that we don’t care about the
attrition rate which will be hideous.
Thus, the trend towards large UAVs like the MQ-4C Triton are a
mistake. We want cheap, throwaway
UAVs.
Unfortunately,
cheap implies small which, in turn, implies limited range, endurance, and
capability. Fortunately, numbers can largely
offset those disadvantages.
We can
compensate for limited capability (meaning, limited sensor range and field of
view) by using more UAVs to cover the same area.
We can
compensate for limited range and endurance by using the UAVs as one-way,
throwaway assets which doubles their “range”.
We don’t want to do this routinely but we shouldn’t hesitate to do so
when the need arises.
 |
| Small UAVs |
We can also
compensate for limited range by having the UAVs forward deployed instead of
trying to operate them from some base far behind the lines. By forward deployed, I mean deployed on every
ship so that they start out as close to the enemy or the area of interest as
possible.
For
example, a Burke or LCS with, say, 50 small, cheap UAVs can provide its own
long range surveillance and situational awareness. Sure, when contact is made with the enemy
we’ll lose dozens of UAVs but with enough of them we can maintain situational
awareness and generate the targeting data we need.
Now, you
understand my call for UAV carriers.
These would be small, WWII escort size carriers or, perhaps, converted
commercial cargo vessels with a minimal flight deck (it doesn’t require much
deck space to launch and recover small UAVs) that would act as surveillance and
targeting escort ships for surface groups.
We can
accomplish surveillance and targeting with UAVs if we’re willing to accept the
attrition. Hence, numbers matter.
There’s
another aspect to UAV numbers and that is the “Terminator” scenario – you know,
the Terminator movie with lethal, autonomous robots attacking each other and
humans. Yes, Terminator – we’ve already crossed
the line. Every major country has
already fielded air, land, and sea robots that are armed and we’re giving them
more and more autonomy regarding killing.
Future wars will be fought with large numbers of robots indiscriminately
shooting.
However, as
yet, they lack true AI and, therefore, numbers will matter. The robots will be equally matched and the
winner on the future battlefield will be the side with more robots. Hence, numbers matter.
The
takeaway from this is that we need to focus our design efforts on smaller,
significantly cheaper unmanned vehicles.
For the Navy, this means small, cheap, expendable UAVs for surveillance
and targeting in the near term. Longer
term, cheap, armed UAV swarms are the next logical step. The Navy’s trend towards ultra-high end,
sophisticated, ultra-capable UAVs is a mistake.
They’ll wind up being just as expensive as manned aircraft, if not more
so, and we’ll be unwilling to risk them which defeats their purpose.
Navy, it’s
time to go small or go home!