Despite having thoroughly discredited the notion of
deterrence (see, “Forward Presence Deterrent EffectDisproved”), there is a faction of naval observers who continue to
insist that deterrence is real and works despite the overwhelming evidence of
China, Russia, Iran, and NKorea’s expansionism, terrorism, and general
disregard for international laws, treaties, and norms which more than disproves
the validity of deterrence. In fact,
many of these people believe that the only thing wrong with the Navy’s approach
to deterrence – if there is anything wrong – is that we aren’t devoting enough
ships to it. If only we’d use even more
ships our deterrence would be even more effective, they say.
Well, it’s time to take an analytical approach to the Navy
and deterrence as regards our main enemy, China. Is deterrence working? What assets are we devoting to
deterrence? Do we need more?
Is deterrence
working? - Well, this one is easy to answer. China has, for all practical purposes,
annexed the entire South and East China Seas despite them being mainly
international waters. They’ve built
illegal artificial islands and militarized them. They’re continually encroaching on the
territorial waters and air space of Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and other
countries in the region. They’ve made
public claims about ownership of Japanese territories and most or all of the
second island chain. There are even
reports stating that China has made claims on a third island chain which
includes Hawaii and most of the Pacific.[2]
In addition to territorial expansion, China has also engaged
in the seizure of US military assets and ignores the UNCLOS treaty to which it
is a signatory (demonstrating that China’s word is worthless).
What assets are we
devoting to deterrence? - The US Navy’s entire 7th Fleet is
devoted to deterring China. As a
reminder,
Seventh Fleet includes a permanently forward deployed aircraft carrier, currently the USS George Washington, CVN-73. Yokosuka, alone, typically includes a command ship, an aircraft carrier, Ticonderoga class cruisers, and a dozen or so Burke class destroyers.
In addition to the 7th Fleet, numerous other
carriers, ARG/MEUs, and aircraft regularly rotate into the 7th Fleet’s
control.
We are devoting an enormous number of ships, aircraft, and
personnel to deterring China.
Do we need more? -
The facts are crystal clear.
If the 50 to 70 ships, 150 aircraft and 27,000 sailors and marines
aren’t deterring China, no additional forces will suddenly, magically alter the
situation. Think about it, though,
that’s a lot of ships, aircraft, and personnel.
Why isn’t China deterred? Why
aren’t they behaving very cautiously, in not cowering? The answer is simple and painfully
obvious: China does not believe we’ll
use our forces. If your enemy does not
believe you have the will to act, no amount of forces in the region will alter
their thinking. We could pack the entire
US Navy into the South China Sea and it wouldn’t deter China for one second. They believe, correctly, that we won’t use
our force so any gathering of naval forces is a hollow, empty gesture.
The only force we’ve ever used in peacetime is against third
rate countries and China does not see themselves as a third rate country. In fact, history proves their view of things
is correct. China has seized US military
aircraft and drones while they were in use, disrupted naval operations,
successfully threatened and chased away US ships in international waters,
established and militarized illegal islands while the US Navy stood back and
watched, enforced illegal territorial water claims, violated the air space of
Taiwan, etc. All the while, the US Navy
did nothing. Ironically, the only
substantive action the US Navy has taken, Freedom of Navigation exercises
according to the conditions of UNCLOS Innocent Passage, has only reinforced the
validity of China’s illegal territorial water claims!
No will to act means no deterrence and no amount of
additional forces will change that.
______________________________
It is headquartered at U.S. Fleet Activities Yokosuka, in Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan. It is part of the United States Pacific Fleet. At present, it is the largest of the forward-deployed U.S. fleets, with 50 to 70 ships, 150 aircraft and 27,000 sailors and marines.[1]
Seventh Fleet includes a permanently forward deployed aircraft carrier, currently the USS George Washington, CVN-73. Yokosuka, alone, typically includes a command ship, an aircraft carrier, Ticonderoga class cruisers, and a dozen or so Burke class destroyers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Seventh_Fleet
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinas-next-territorial-claim-hawaii-almost-the-entire-17658
The bizarre part is given China's thousands of theater missiles, our wise wartime plan should hope to get the carrier near Tokyo out of port and the amphibs out of Sasebo and sail to the safety of Hawaii, leaving the families behind. It will take a few months until our Navy masses enough carriers to consider fighting China in WestPac.
ReplyDeleteChina knows the exact GPS location of these ships in port. If it fires just 50 of its missiles at once, most will get through air defenses and some will hit the big flattops. Here is something I wrote long-ago.
https://g2mil.com/sasebo.htm
And here's something I wrote on the subject: USS Ronald Reagan and Force Z
DeleteAnd this carrier mostly relies on MSC ships from Sasebo for sustainment in WestPac, and that will not happen during a war. This support needs to move out further, like to eastern Australia. I was happy to see the US Army is finally waking up and doing so.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.militarytimes.com/land/2025/07/02/setting-the-scene-army-to-test-new-hub-for-stockpiling-in-australia/