Mission Capable Rate
|
|||
EA-18G
|
F-18E
|
F-18F
|
|
2012
|
64%
|
56%
|
55%
|
2013
|
59%
|
53%
|
48%
|
2014
|
54%
|
53%
|
43%
|
2015
|
55%
|
54%
|
46%
|
2016
|
58%
|
53%
|
45%
|
2017
|
54%
|
51%
|
47%
|
2018
|
51%
|
49%
|
46%
|
What we see is a slow, steady drop in readiness rates for
the Growler and single seat Hornet and a steady rate for two seat Hornet. In all cases, the readiness rates are very
low.
Well, not to worry.
In September of last year, just under 6 months ago, then Secretary of
Defense Mattis issued a memo instructing the Navy to achieve an 80% readiness
rate by the end of 2019. (2)
Now, less than 6 months later, Rear Adm. Scott Conn, the
Navy’s director of air warfare, just informed the House Armed Services tactical
air and land forces subcommittee that Super Hornet readiness is 63%-76%. (1)
Wow!!!!!!!!!!! That’s
stunning.
The Navy struggled with readiness for the last several years
and was unable to effect any improvement (in fact, readiness was trending down,
if anything) but a single memo from SecDef Mattis caused readiness to jump from
less than 50% to as high as 76% in less than 6 months when several years of
effort were unable to move the needle.
Wow, again!!!!
If all it took was a memo, why didn’t anyone think to write
one several years ago? That is one
powerful, near magical memo, isn’t it?
Years of maintenance manpower shortages, higher than
expected corrosion and problems, chronic spare parts shortages, depot backlogs,
funding shortages, etc., all cured in less than 6 months by a single memo. In fact, allowing some time for the memo to
be disseminated, digested, understood, and responses formulated, the actual
improvement time was more like 5 months or less. All of those problems solved in 5 months!
Before you all order your celebratory cake, let me pose one
question: do you think there’s even the
slightest chance that nothing has changed except how readiness is reported? Do you think readiness is unchanged and we’re
just pencil-whipping and gun-decking the readiness reports? Before you answer, consider all the Navy
fraudulent statements and practices (lapsed certifications, acceptance trial
waivers, fraudulent shock trial success claims, and hundreds of other examples)
that we’ve exposed on this blog alone.
Now, let me repeat the question … Do you really think readiness surged
that much in 5 months or less or is it unchanged and the Navy is just
pencil-whipping the readiness reports?
Still unsure? Well,
consider who the Navy turned to for help:
the commercial airlines.
The
Navy received help from logistics specialists from airlines, including
Southwest, Secretary of the Navy Richard V. Spencer said at an event last year. (1)
The airlines. The
people who, in order to claim on-time departures, routinely disengage a loaded
plane from the boarding ramp and then let it sit for extended periods until it
can actually take off. It’s a
fraudulent, disingenuous practice that covers up routine failure. (3)
The airlines. The
people who chronically falsify maintenance reports. (4)
What do you think these airline consultants taught the
Navy? Do you think it’s more likely that
they taught the Navy how to improve maintenance or how to improve reporting
practices?
I guess when the Secretary of Defense orders you to achieve
miraculous improvements in readiness rates in very little time, you’re probably
going to start bending and twisting the reporting in order to comply and save
your job.
Well done, Navy.
Now, how many of those supposedly ready aircraft are
actually ready? I’m guessing it’s the
same 50% or less that it was just 5 short months ago.
(1)USNI News website, “Navy Fighter Readiness Nearing 80
Percent Mission Capable Target”, Ben Werner, 5-Apr-2019,
https://news.usni.org/2019/04/05/42436
(2)USNI News website, “SECDEF Mattis Wants 80 Percent of
Super Hornets Mission Capable by Next Year”, Sam LaGrone, 9-Oct-2018,
https://news.usni.org/2018/10/09/secdef-mattis-wants-80-percent-super-hornet-mission-capable-next-year
(3)Smarter Travel website, “The Truth About Deceptive
Airline Practices”, Tim Winship, 26-Jun-2008,
https://www.smartertravel.com/the-truth-about-deceptive-airline-practices/
(4)Orlando Sentinel website, “FAA INSPECTOR: WORKERS SAID
FALSIFYING RECORDS IS COMMON”, Roger Roy, 10-Jun-1997,
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/os-xpm-1997-06-10-9706090542-story.html
Alternative Best case scenario: this was a surge. The planes really were honestly brought up, but now they've exhausted the spares and broke all the tools and ran the maintainers ragged. It won't last long and numbers will crash again.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand; if they cooked the books to comply with the Matthis memo, how badly cooked were the books BEFORE the memo?
DeleteI'm betting some of those "mission capable" planes were barely fit to fight before the memo dropped.
Real world; I doubt we have more then 10% planes with zero defects/write-ups.
"The map is not the territory",Alfred Korzybski
ReplyDelete"Scribbling on the map does not change the territory"
Audit the Navy, of course if results were published
the PLAN would invade Taiwan the next day.
Stultus
Only real change has been one year of budget certainty. I am sure it helped, but no way that much. Last I read 1/3 of super hornet sorties was humping fuel. That chronic stupidity just doesn't get fixed in one memo.
ReplyDeleteAlso, as of a few years ago Super Hornets fresh off the line were being completely worn out on their maiden voyages because they were the only reliable airframes. One deployment and then straight back to the depot....
DeleteSouthwest? Didn't they have a corruption case where they were paying off FAA inspectors to look the other way? maybe not the best choice to emulate....then again, it's the USN so you go with the pros.
ReplyDeleteIm guessing they fudged the numbers and pushed out faster a few birds out to make the numbers look good and then later in the year, when no one is looking anymore, the numbers will go back to "normal"....
Most of the USN aircraft maintenance people are in deep poo because they have no transgender training for the last couple of weeks.
ReplyDeleteSomething will have to give.
I laughed at that harder than i should have. My last few years in Army Reserves was pc powerpoints every weekend.
DeleteJust wondering out loud but how bad does one have to mess up inside USN to be fired? People in civilian world lose their jobs for a lot less, maybe it's time to look inside DoD and set up better guidelines on firing offenses or demotions.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is everyone is doing the same thing so in order to fire them they would have to admit its stupid and means they aren't doing their job.
DeleteI think at this point its a rot that has set in. They will have to go in and just reap the admirals who started this crap.