The Navy (and US military, in general) has latched on to hypersonic weapons and, as is typical of the Navy, with absolutely no supporting evidence or testing that demonstrates that hypersonic weapons will be effective enough to justify their cost and other negative impacts. We touched on this in a previous post (see, “Conventional Hypersonic Prompt Strike Missile”).
Speaking of cost,
Based on internal Defense Department estimates on the number of weapons planned, that amounts to about $106 million per missile for the Army and $89.6 million for the Navy.[1]
One time use missiles that cost a hundred million dollars! How can that possibly be justified?
Here’s a cost for integrating – not producing! – hypersonic missile components:
Lockheed Martin won $347 million to integrate at least eight of those glide bodies with guidance systems, rocket boosters, protective canisters, and so on, arming a battery of four Long Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) launchers.[2] [ed. = $43M each]
The 2021 GAO Annual Weapons Assessment report cites a program cost of $3.96B ($FY21) for a quantity of 11 missiles ($360M each) without specifying what’s included in the cost.
While there are no reliable unit cost figures for hypersonic weapons, yet, it is clear that they’re going to be very expensive. The first reference, citing a cost of $90M per missile for the Navy, is the most authoritative estimate that I’ve been able to find.
Now, with that kind of staggering cost in mind, how do we justify hypersonic weapons?
Well, one way would be if the destructive effects were several levels beyond devastating - a near nuclear bomb level of destructive power from a single weapon. However, the destructive effects are nowhere near that level. They will either depend on kinetic energy alone or use a conventional warhead which limits the size of the explosive power to conventional levels although that would be added to whatever kinetic effects there are.
As we’ve repeatedly demonstrated via calculations, kinetic energy, alone, is rarely sufficient to produce a useful destructive force. Kinetic energy is also a tricky phenomenon to effectively harness. For example, the bullet through paper analogy that I’ve often cited renders kinetic energy unusable. Even when a physically substantial target is hit, the kinetic energy is likely to be gradually released (on a relative time scale) as opposed to the instantaneous release from a conventional explosive. The gradual release ‘dilutes’ the destructive effect of the kinetic energy release/conversion.
Here’s an illustrative example of the kinetic energy effects of a hypersonic weapon. The data is all speculative as there are no publicly available specifications, that I’m aware of.
Mass of common glide body = 900 kg
Velocity = Mach 5 = 3800 mph = 1699 m/s
k.e. = 0.5 * mass * (velocity)squared
k.e. = 0.5 * 900 * (3800)squared
k.e. = 6,498,000,000 J
By comparison, a kg of TNT releases 4,184,000 J. Thus, the hypersonic weapon is equivalent to 1553 kg of TNT (3417 lb). A Tomahawk missile has a 1000 lb conventional warhead so a hypersonic weapon would be equivalent to 3.4 Tomahawk missiles. That’s substantial, to be sure, but it’s nothing approaching near nuclear bomb type of destruction.
Of course, if the warhead is heavier or lighter or the speed is greater or lesser, that would change the calculation.
The point is that while a weapon that is equivalent to 3.4 Tomahawk missiles is potent, it does not justify a hundred million dollar price tag when that hundred million dollars could buy 50 Tomahawk missiles.
We’ve discussed in previous posts that kinetic weapons (no explosive warhead) depend on the transfer/conversion of their kinetic energy into thermal energy and resulting shock/pressure effects. In order for this to happen, the kinetic projectile must encounter sufficient resistance to quickly and efficiently transfer/convert the kinetic energy. This is the bullet/paper problem: a bullet (lots of kinetic energy) fired at a piece of paper, will do very little damage, leaving only a bullet size hole as it passes through the paper and the paper will emerge virtually undamaged because the paper offers insufficient resistance to transfer/convert any of the bullet’s kinetic energy to the paper target. Similarly, a hypersonic kinetic projectile that encounters a soft target like a ship will likely pass through, causing relatively little damage. Conversely, a substantial, solid target such as a concrete bunker, fortification, or hardened aircraft shelter will offer sufficient resistance to facilitate the energy conversion and the target will be destroyed.
Closely related to this resistance problem is that a hypersonic missile will release/convert its kinetic energy slowly as opposed to a conventional explosive, such as a Tomahawk missile, which releases its energy instantaneously. When you see videos of rail gun projectiles impacting targets, the targets are, invariably, steel blocks multiple feet in thickness and the projectile produces an impressive fireworks display. However, how many real world targets consist of steel blocks a few feet thick? A hypersonic body impacting a real world target, such as a building, is likely going to penetrate straight through the target, releasing/converting only a portion of its energy. The remainder will be released/converted in the ground as the body continues to penetrate until it stops. In fact, the body might well pass straight through the building, leaving only a small hole, and bury itself in the ground (the bullet through paper analogy). What effect that underground release/conversion of energy would have on the above ground structure/target is unknown. I’m not aware that anyone has done any realistic testing of hypersonic weapon destructive effects. We desperately need realistic testing before we continue down the staggeringly expensive hypersonic weapons path. It’s going to be very difficult to justify a hundred million dollar, one time use weapon.
A final consideration about target sets is that the hypersonic missile inventory will likely be quite small.
The [Pentagon] internal assessment, made available to Bloomberg News, shows an expected total of … 240 missiles for the Navy.[1]
Thus, we have to not only take into account the cost of a hypersonic missile but also the inventory level. With very few missiles, we can’t waste them against anything but extremely high value targets. We also can’t waste them against heavily defended targets.
Moving on, we’ve noted that hypersonics have a fairly limited target set. With no guidance package, they can only be used against fixed targets. In order to effectively release/convert their kinetic energy, the target has to be physically substantial. Even a ship is likely to see a hypersonic weapon pass straight through (this phenomenon was seen often in WWII when large caliber, armor piercing shells would pass straight through a smaller target ship, causing very little damage.
What does all of the preceding tell us about the hypersonic weapon target set? It tells us that valid targets must be:
- Fixed targets since hypersonic weapons don’t have guidance packages
- Extremely high value targets to justify the cost
- Physically hard targets to trigger an effective degree of energy release/conversion
- Less defended so as not to waste expensive missiles
This excludes:
- Area bombardment / suppression fire
- Mobile targets
- Physically soft targets such as trucks, tanks, artillery, aircraft, most buildings
- Heavily defended targets
Now, let’s consider how many real world targets fall into the valid target set? The answer is … not many. Examples might be a very large headquarters building, hardened aircraft hangars, underground bunkers, nuclear missile silos, and Chinese submarine pens built into mountains. Even within this set, some of the potential targets are questionable. For example, is it really cost-effective to destroy a hardened aircraft hangar with a hundred million dollar missile as opposed to a couple of Tomahawks?
The harsh reality is that the vast majority of targets are not valid hypersonic weapon targets. These would include trucks, tanks, artillery, people, ships, aircraft, radars, and almost every worthwhile target one might find on a battlefield.
Thus, hypersonics would seem to be more a one-shot, sniper type weapon for use against very high value, very constrained targets rather than a general warfare weapon.
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[1]Bloomberg website, “Hypersonic Sticker Shock: U.S. Weapons May Run $106 Million Each”, Anthony Capaccio, 12-Nov-2021,
[2]Breaking Defense website, “Hypersonics: Army Awards $699M To Build First Missiles For A Combat Unit”, Sydney J. Freedberg Jr., 30-Aug-2019,