We’ve had repeated discussions about the defense of Guam (or
any forward base) and everyone except the military seems to recognize that
requires a layered defense which includes ships, planes, missiles, mines, etc.
However, there’s another layer to defense that never gets
mentioned and that is offense.
The best defense is a good offense.
This means that if you can destroy the source of attacks
before they even launch, there’s nothing to defend and your defense is
perfect. Rather than shoot down
missiles, find and destroyer the launchers (shoot archers not arrows). Rather than try to intercept aircraft,
destroy the aircraft’s bases. Rather
than search for submarines, destroy them pierside and destroy their shore
support facilities. And so on.
Offense is the first, best, defensive layer.
We just noted that the military is making little or no
serious effort to build up Guam’s defenses and, indeed, may be reducing those
defenses in response to environmental concerns (see, “BaseDefense is a Joke”). As bad as
that is, there has not even been the slightest thought given to incorporating
an offensive layer into Guam’s defense.
The Air Force is not planning to conduct strikes against Chinese
ballistic missile launch sites, airbases, or naval ports. The Navy has no plans to launch cruise
missiles at Chinese airbases and naval ports.
The Navy has no plan to attack Chinese submarines in their home ports or
destroy their support facilities.
Some might attempt to make the argument, purely on faith,
that the military does have plans but they just haven’t made them public. That might seem like a reasonable
proposition, on the face of it, but in our society there’s no such thing as a
secret. Further, if we did have such
plans, we’d be practicing them and there have been no such exercises conducted
… ever. Recall the WWII War Plan
Orange? We had plans for fighting Japan
and we conducted practice exercises in the form of Fleet Problems for years
prior to the start of war. There were no
secrets even back then. Besides, at
least in a general sense, you’d like your potential enemy to know that you have
plans to defeat them and that you’re diligently practicing so … no need to be
overly concerned about secrecy.
The obvious conclusion is that we have no offensive plans to
support Guam’s defensive efforts. This
must change. We desperately need to get
serious about the war with China and start planning, practicing, and
engaging … offensively.
This article includes a nice summary of recent efforts and challenges related to Guam:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnn.com/2025/01/31/asia/trump-iron-dome-ballistic-missile-defense-guam-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
There’s a quote that adds fiscal considerations to your point: “offense is cheaper than defense”
All that being said, we’re likely to be in a situation where we take the first punch in a war with china. So even if the plan is to go for the shooters, Guam and other bases need to be able to successfully defend at least one initial determined strike.