Monday, July 24, 2023

Carrier Scouting

ComNavOps constantly harps on targeting (see, “Weapons Don’t Matter”).  As I always say, a million mile missile is useless with ten mile targeting.  Closely related to targeting is scouting.  You want to know where the threat is and is not.  In a sense, targeting is a subset of scouting; the final ‘phase’ of scouting before the strike. 
 
Unlike targeting which is purely offensive, scouting supports both offense and defense.  If you know where the threat is, you can prepare your defenses accordingly.  Scouting provides the commander with situational awareness and, as such, it is just as important to know where the enemy isn’t as where he is.
 
Let’s look a bit closer at carrier group scouting.  As always, we begin with historical examples.
 
 
WWII
 
Many of us don’t realize that the standard operating procedure of American carrier groups in WWII was to send a dozen or so scout planes (generally SBD Dauntless aircraft) out at dawn every morning to search the surrounding seas for any sign of enemy ships or aircraft.
 
SBD Dauntless

In the book, Queen of the Flat-Tops, Lt.Cmdr. Mort Seligman, executive officer of the Lexington (CV-2) had this to say about scouting: 
“We are under a handicap out here.  The limited range of our scouts makes it necessary for us to be forever on our toes.  If we want to find out what the enemy is doing we’ve got to move up to within easy range of his land-based aircraft to find out.
 
“On the other hand, the Japanese, by using these 3000-mile Kawanishi [flying] boats, can see a lot farther than we can.  They range out over the ocean and watch every movement within some 1,000 miles of their bases.  There’s little we do in daylight that they can’t know about.  It costs them a plane every so often because we shoot them down every time we come across them.  But with these clouds out here this isn’t always possible because even though we know they are there we can’t always find them.
 
Once their day patrols have come out and they know their waters are clear for 500 miles around, they can relax.  Even if they find us they have time to bring up air defenses before we can get in our poke.  That limits our attacks almost to early morning only after an all-night fast approach.  And it makes it very difficult for us to gain the advantage of the element of surprise which is a much more important factor in war than most people realize.”[1]
Lt.Cmdr. Seligman succinctly defines both the problem and solutions for the carrier group:
 
  • Problem:  Our carrier scouts were shorter range than the Japanese land based scouts.

  • Solution:  Seek out and destroy the enemy’s scout planes (counter-scouting) and conduct high speed, night run-ins to the target to launch dawn strikes before the enemy can get their scouts out and alert their defenses.
 
Of course, in the open ocean, out of range of land-based scouts, the enemy naval forces had the same scout range limitations we did and the scouting contest was even;  both sides had an equal chance of finding the other first.
 
Prior (or in addition) to carriers, one of the functions of cruisers was to operate floatplanes to conduct scouting.  The Brooklyn class cruiser, for example, operated four floatplanes using a pair of stern catapults and a recovery crane.
 
That summarizes the issue for WWII surface and carrier groups but how does the issue translate to modern times?
 
 
Today
 
The same general issue and constraints apply today with the carrier at, perhaps, a somewhat worse disadvantage. Let’s consider some aspects of modern naval scouting.
 
Scout Planes – Part of the problem is that we have no carrier scout aircraft.  The E-2 Hawkeye is most emphatically not a scout aircraft and they are never deployed too far from the protection of the carrier.  We lack a dedicated scout aircraft with great range and great sensors (passive and active).  Instead, we would have to use F-18 Hornets as scouts and the Hornet simply hasn’t got the range (or sensors) to be an effective scout.  The F-35C offers a slight improvement in range and survivability but is still not an effective broad area maritime scout.
 
Conversely, China has very long range, land-based bombers, maritime patrol aircraft, and UAVs that can serve the scout function, just as Japan did in WWII.
 
Sensors – Enemy scout assets include land-based, very long range aircraft, satellites, UAVs, etc. which, in the aggregate, offer potentially multi-thousand mile scouting as compared to our few hundred mile range carrier scouting capability.  Of course, we also have the possibility of using satellites and UAVs as scouts but given that we’ll be operating far closer to China than to any US bases, we’ll be much more limited in the degree of scouting support we can expect.
 
Strike Range – WWII carriers only had to scout a couple hundred miles out to be assured of safety since that was the limit of carrier aircraft strike range.  Today, cruise and ballistic missiles have extended the potential strike range – and, hence, scouting range requirement - to thousands of miles.
 
Counter-Scouting – One of the F-14 Tomcat’s roles was counter-scouting.  Their job was to eliminate the Soviet Tu-95 Bears before they could find our carriers.  Counter-scouting, today, includes countering satellites, submarine surveillance, over-the-horizon radars, SOSUS-type listening arrays, aircraft, etc.  This can no longer be done just by the carrier’s organic assets.  For example, countering satellites is a strategic responsibility outside the carrier’s capability (barring ship launched anti-satellite missiles).  Countering sea bed listening arrays is, again, a strategic responsibility.
 
 
Conclusion
 
While we may optimistically hope that we can get land-based scouting support, the reality is that our nearest source of scout aircraft in the Pacific theater will be Guam or some such base that is thousands of miles from likely carrier operating areas and that makes any scouting support sporadic, at best, and utterly ineffective, more likely.  Our carriers need an organic scout aircraft that is available whenever and wherever needed
 
Night, and the corresponding dawn search from WWII, is no longer sufficient given that darkness is no longer the ‘shield’ it once was.  We need to be able to scout 24 hours a day and, again, land-based scouts simply cannot provide that capability on a sustained basis.
 
Interestingly, the F-35C could serve as an effective scout plane if it were given a dedicated set of effective passive and active sensors.  The F-35C has a useful degree of stealth, though not up to modern combat standards, and this would allow it to conduct scouting missions survivably and with a fair chance of not being spotted, in turn.
 
The F-35C can also effectively perform the counter-scout role against non-combat aircraft and would even have a chance against combat stealth aircraft, though not dominantly so.
 
It’s clear to see that counter-scouting must extend many hundreds of miles in all directions, on a continuous basis.  This last part is vital.  Given the speed of modern aircraft, it is no longer sufficient to scout/clear an area once a day.  We must have nearly continuous coverage.  An enemy scouting asset can appear far too quickly and cover far too much area to assume an area once cleared will stay clear of enemy scouting assets.  This suggests a heavy reliance on long endurance UAVs.  Ideally, we’d have long endurance, stealthy, UAVs operated by the dozens from a dedicated UAV carrier (a converted merchant ship).
 
The Navy has to start getting serious about combat instead of just being focused on new hulls.  We need to focus on mine warfare, mine countermeasures, logistics, large caliber naval gun support, long range fighters, small ASW ships, close in defensive AAW weapons, and scouting    you know, all the things that aren’t shiny and sexy but that win wars.
 
 
 
 
________________________________
 
[1]Johnston, Stanley, Queen of the Flat-Tops, Bantam Books, 1942, ISBN: 0-553-24264-4, p.130

54 comments:

  1. Australian SAGs have a P8 overwatching, weather permitting.

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    1. That doesn't sound like scouting or at least not effective scouting. Weather permitting???? That's not effective scouting!

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    2. No one flies in bad weather they didn't in WW2 and they don't today. It's not just risky it's suicidal.

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    3. My goodness, yes, air wings fly in bad weather. There's a limit of course but night and bad weather is not a problem.

      For example, the Marines had all weather A-6 Intruder squadrons such as VMA(AW)-533. The (AW) standing for 'all weather'. F-18 Hornets are designated VMFA(AW), for example.

      The F-18 is described as an all weather strikefighter.

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  2. Right now UAVs and satellites are one in the same since our long range UAVs rely on satellite links for control.

    Something like the Kratos Valkyrie could be a good scout given its radius of 1500-2000 miles paired with its ability to operate without runways. They could operate off the helicopter carrier you envision. But it needs either more autonomous features (best) or to use a more robust satellite network.

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  3. Equip the F/A-18 with a long-range sensor pod in the centerline, the way the F-14 was equipped with TARPS, so it can serve as a scout? Or if the Navy has money to burn, design conformal side-looking radar arrays that can be mounted in place of the F-35C and the NGAD's weapon bay doors?

    Equally important is secure communications, so the scout can warn the fleet of what it finds, without the enemy finding it (and shooting it down) in turn. Do we have the necessary technology? If so, are our service members getting the training necessary to COMPETENTLY USE this technology?

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    1. Hmm ... You've exposed a gap in my knowledge. I have no idea what recon pods the F-18 Super Hornet has available. The Marine F-18Ds (two seat) used to mount the Advanced Tactical Airborne Reconnaissance System (ATARS) in place of the nose gun. I'm don't know whether that capability exists for the Super Hornet. Maybe someone out there knows?

      I also don't know the range and field of vision of the system and whether it would be effective for broad area maritime scouting. I get the impression it was intended as a shorter range battlefield recon asset and might not be effective as a scout asset. Similarly, TARPS was a shorter range recon and BDA asset rather than a broad area scout asset.

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  4. Scouting is the purpose of the P-8. The problem is our Navy lacks E-737s as escorts. Otherwise, P-8s might stumble upon enemy fighters. Australia has E-737s and the USAF has decided to buy them. Our Navy should cut P-8 production plans to fund E-737s. The P-8 will fly low looking at ships and maybe subs while the E-737 flies overwatch. Its much longer range radar allows it to spot enemy fighters so the pair can turn away to avoid them.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_AEW%26C

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    1. E-737s should prove more valuable than P-8s. From that link:

      "The 737 AEW&C is roughly similar to the 737-700ER. It uses the Northrop Grumman Electronic Systems Multi-role Electronically Scanned Array (MESA) radar. The electronically scanned AEW and surveillance radar is located on a dorsal fin on top of the fuselage, dubbed the "top hat", and is designed for minimal aerodynamic effect. The radar is capable of simultaneous air and sea search, fighter control and area search, with a maximum range of over 600 km (look-up mode). In addition, the radar antenna array is also doubled as an ELINT array, with a maximum range of over 850 km at 9,000 metres (30,000 ft) altitude."

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    3. Neither the P-8 nor the E-737 would make effective carrier group scouts for multiple reasons:

      -Scouts must search a two thousand mile circular area centered on the carrier group. That requires a dozen or more aircraft flying out in all directions. We simply don't have the available numbers of aircraft to do that.

      -Unlike WWII, scouting must be on a near continuous basis. Again, we don't have the available numbers of aircraft to do that.

      -By definition, scout aircraft will be lost and both the P-8 and E-737 are far too expensive to lose any.

      -Scouting using active radar will result in losses and, worse, will pinpoint the carrier's location for the enemy. Neither aircraft has sufficient passive sensors to conduct effective searches, to the best of my knowledge.

      -An E-737 cannot detect a stealth aircraft far enough out to evade and survive. I don't have classified detection data, obviously, but by all accounts, a radar would be fortunate to detect a stealth aircraft at 20 miles. Combine that detection range with hundred-plus mile A2A missile and an E-737 has zero chance to survive an encounter.

      The ELINT function is useful but, again, we need near continuous coverage to be effective. We used to have a carrier based ELINT/SIGINT aircraft in the ES-3A Shadow but, like so many other misguided decisions, we gave that up without replacement.

      "maximum range of over 600 km"

      As you know, any advertised radar detection range is for high flying, giant, commercial airliners not military aircraft. The detection range for stealthy or even semi-stealthy aircraft drops precipitously.

      Similarly, stealthy or semi-stealthy ships are claimed to have radar returns like 'a fishing boat', whatever that means. We're not going to spot Chinese warships at 600 km. We'll be lucky to see them at 50 km, I would guess, maybe less.

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  5. I have never understood why the Navy has taken an asset like the MQ-25 Stingray and instead of loading it with electronic devices, has made it a refueler. Seems to me that a few of the old S-3 Vikings could be made into a refueler quite easily leaving the MQ-25 to become the kind of eyes and ears you envision.

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    1. Quite right. The KA-3 Viking would have had more capacity and range than the MQ-25 and, if fully optimized for the role, would have been significantly better. With a dedicated sensor package, the MQ-25 would be a step in the right direction for scouting.

      The only drawback is that effective scouting would require a few dozen scout aircraft and that would decimate a carrier's air wing. This would require a dedicated UAV carrier so as not to negatively impact the carrier group's combat effectiveness.

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    2. "This would require a dedicated UAV carrier so as not to negatively impact the carrier group's combat effectiveness."

      Range is at least in part a function of size (still working on my thousand mile quadcopter). So wouldn't that mean if you want long aircraft rang you'll need roughly long aircraft size. That would seem to me that would imply aircraft carrier services.

      The only way I see to get around that is smaller shorter range UAV's launched from basicly smaller aircraft optimized for the smaller UAV's. Essentially another set of escorts rather than one or two that are protected like the full size carrier.

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    3. This being Monday, the Marines have decided they're not in the invasion business. A LHA would be more useful as drone carrier instead of a Lightning Carrier.

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    4. "Range is at least in part a function of size"

      Sort of but not really. There are many small to medium size UAVs that have very long endurance. It's about weight, lift, fuel fraction, speed, etc. The question on any of them in the recon role is whether they can carry an effective sensor package.

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    5. "A LHA would be more useful as drone carrier instead of a Lightning Carrier."

      Yes, although that would be vast overkill. A converted merchant ship would make a perfectly adequate UAV carrier and cost nothing on a relative basis.

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    6. " have never understood why the Navy has taken an asset like the MQ-25 Stingray and instead of loading it with electronic devices, has made it a refueler."

      That was one of the intentions of the original UCLASS program, that the resulting aircraft be a multirole ISR/recon/refuel/strike aircraft. It then got scaled back to CBARS, a much less ambitious program for somewhat stealthy tactical tanker with a secondary attack role.

      One of the criticisms of UCLASS was that it was trying to do too many things and be multirole; on the other hand, CBARS is criticised for being just a tanker. Your mileage may vary.

      Given the developmental issues and delays with the last few aircraft programs, I think there is some merit into scaling back the requirements for CBARS and walking before running. Part of the F-35's development hell has come from being a very ambitious program that was trying to do too much at the same time.

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    7. "A converted merchant ship would make a perfectly adequate UAV carrier and cost nothing on a relative basis."

      Assuming the UAV is a large, fixed wing aircraft- capable of carrying long-range sensors, instead of the short-range ones a rotary wing aircraft is limited to- how is the UAV going to land on the merchant ship? Most merchant ships have their bridges at the stern, obstructing the flight path an aircraft will take when landing; reducing the bridge to clear a path for an angled flight deck, will likely be very expensive. Will it deploy a parachute above the UAV carrier, to land? Or dive into the sea, to prevent capture, as ola UAV is far more expendable than a manned aircraft?

      It may be easier (and cheaper) to convert one of the many LHDs already in service, into UAV carriers.

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    8. "Assuming the UAV is a large, fixed wing aircraft"

      An erroneous assumption. As the Air Force has already recognized, large UAVs are not survivable. That only leaves smaller UAVs for which a converted merchant ship is well suited.

      There may be a role for large UAVs to patrol peripheral areas where enemy activity is not expected but that can be done from land bases.

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  6. So, whats our longest ranged platform right now??? Why not use Tomahawks to run scout missions? Dont they already have BDA capability? Why not further enhance it? We could program them to return and be recovered, so that takes them from missile to drone status, but at least they wouldnt need someone to fly them. Removing the warhead might leave room and weight for some decent video or sensor packages. Since theyre already programmable, seems like theyre an easy choice, at least as a basis for a recon "drone". I know theyre expensive, and maybe theyre too fragile to be recovered and reused (??). But with their range, they wouldnt necessasarilly point out where the launching ship is, like an aircraft would. Maybe its a horrible idea but somthing that just came to mind...

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    1. As an added note- trying to recover a "recon Tomahawk" cuts its range significantly, so maybe its a poor idea. I just thought that due to its cost it might be worthwhile. Of course in a shooting war, we arent going to worry about dollars all that much. So in the vein of using TLAM as a one shot, disposable recon device, it might look even better as a possible tool. I read the old Block III are being retired instead of being upgraded th Block V, so why not give them a new mission? Scouting needs to be pretty constant, but if each escort of our ideal 4 CVN battlegroup carried a few "recon Tomahawks", that might provide quite a bit of scouting time, with a decent amount of range...

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    2. "Why not use Tomahawks to run scout missions?"

      The concept is valid IF an effective sensor package can be fit to the missile ... and I have my doubts. The missile is just too small to have large sensors and/or high power. Passive EO/IR sensors would be very small. Still, worth a look.

      It's also unclear to me that recovered Tomahawks can be refueled aboard ship.

      The host ship would be constantly moving so some sort of ship's beacon or control signal would be required to guide the missiles back for recovery. Outgoing signals is not what you want in combat.

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    3. Youre probably right, in that they likely couldnt be reused on a mission, due to maintenance/repair/refuelling, plus we dont seem to reload VLS at sea anyway. Theyd likely have to go back to a depot for all that. Id think that a preprogrammed course could/would negate the need for a ship to communicate with it. Maybe one ship in the group would be tasked with recovery and be at a predetermined location(??). Or, depending on the location, could fly back to a base or outpost for collection?? Just fluffing out the CONOP here LOL...

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    4. "a preprogrammed course could/would negate the need for a ship to communicate with it."

      During peacetime, perhaps. During war, you never know from one second to the next when you'll have to unexpectedly change course. It happened frequently during WWII and then the pilots had to scramble to find the carrier group. We lost many aircraft that way.

      Of course, one alternative is to make them one-way recon assets, however, at $2M-$3M each, that would quickly get expensive.

      The main question, still, is whether they can carry an effective sensor package. All the other issues can be dealt with.

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    5. "Youre probably right"

      Hey, don't give up if you think you have a good idea. Fight for it! Identify the problems and overcome them. Refine the CONOPS. You'll either wind up with a solid concept or you'll come to the conclusion that it won't work and you'll understand why. Don't let me dissuade you just by raising a few challenges!

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    6. Im not giving up!! Its just a bit tough to research feasibility with limited hard source material. But Im still appraising things. Looking at passive detection systems, the old Tomcat sensors, both TV and IR seem like possible choices. Its tough to find and size/weight specs on these systems. But I did find that the IRST thats being added to the Hornets is being integrated as part of a fuel pod, and that the system reduces the fuel weight carried by about 150lbs, so we could make rough calculations about its volume, and convert to a sq in number. The package may have to be "shrunk" or reconfigured to fit within a TLAM airframe, but so far, by weight and space parameters it seems feasible. Now, the question is: how does our Recon Tomahawk communicate about what it finds? Is it possible to msg back to the launching ship, or are we looking at satellite comms (and the potential for that not to be possible due to various enemy actions)??? Now we possibly have sensor range, but no way to communicate the data!!!
      Does the ReconTHawk do a popup maneuver to increase its comm range? (And yes that'd give away its location, but isnt the info more important than the drone itself?)Wonder what the MAX altitude for a Tomahawk is??
      Im creating more questions than answers. And still not sure if reuse is feasible... But 8m going to keep researching...!!!

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  7. Why are very high altitude blimps not an option? Hydrogen issues aside, the Navy used to love those things. Blimps can remain on station for months, thanks to thin film photovoltaics and regenerative fuel cells. They can operate at 70,000ft or more, and can mount huge synthetic aperture radars inside. Blimps move at about twice the speed of a ship, if need be, or they can hover in place. They don't need to be refueled, recovery can take place when able, and there is no crew to fatigue.

    At 70,000ft, the surface area to the visible horizon is a little more than 330,000mi^2. The South China Sea is 1,350,000mi^2, so you need about 4 blimps to observe that area. More will be required in practice, but it's easy to see how wide an area can be searched using a very low-tech tool that probably costs no more than our latest stealthy cruise missiles.

    kbd512

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    1. What's your opinion about the survivability of a very large, very slow, very visible, non-stealthy object hovering over the maritime battlefield?

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    2. CNO,

      It's no better or worse than a very large, very slow, very visible, non-stealthy aircraft carrier battle group sailing around in circles, well within range of enemy bombers and ballistic missiles.

      There are no ideal solutions to be had here, merely ones that cost a lot more than others, ones that can see further than others based upon vantage point, and ones that do or do not risk human lives.

      kbd512

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    3. kbd512,

      Aerostats might make more sense for this application. They are much cheaper and simpler than blimps. You can afford to lose a few. Also a 500+ km radar is going to use megawatts of power. That would require acres of solar panels and significant amounts of heavy batteries, a lot to put on a blimp.

      So more aerostats that are cheaper with less ambitious ranges/altitudes might be more realistic. You have to be careful attaching them to a ship that is part of a battlegroup because active radar gives away the battlegroup location. But they could be useful for bases that the enemy already knows about, backing up our aging E-3 fleet.

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    4. "aircraft carrier battle group sailing around in circles"

      You desperately need to study up on carrier tactics!

      "It's no better or worse than a very large, very slow, very visible, non-stealthy aircraft carrier battle group"

      It's not even in remotely the same realm of reality. A carrier group is protected by layers of various defenses. A blimp is utterly unprotected.

      This blog requires a certain degree of understanding of basic naval combat concepts. I urge you to spend some time studying the basics before you comment again.

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    5. "a 500+ km radar"

      THERE'S NO SUCH THING!

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    6. CNO said:
      "a 500+ km radar"
      THERE'S NO SUCH THING!

      NASA says:
      These radars track the moving vehicle from horizon to horizon— out to a distance of 4,828 kilometers (3,000 nautical miles), with amazing accuracies to 0.0006 degrees in angle and 9 meters (30 feet) in range.

      https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/686321main_AP_ST_Stats_RadarData.pdf

      kbd512

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    7. You're talking about NASA tracking of space stations and satellites, not stealth aircraft and ships.

      You need to come up to speed on naval matters. I'm sorry but I can't allow continued misinformation in comments. Please go study up on basic concepts.

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    8. Grain of salt time, but years ago in an article in the Russian MOD's monthly journal, there was a chart comparing AEW aircraft from the US, Russia, China and Israel, using open sources. Average detection ranges across the board were about 400km for warships, 600km for enemy AEW/tanker/bomber, and 250km for fighter sized targets.

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    9. Those tracking radars are also incredibly sensitive to movement and are usually land based and combined with their massive structures, aren't easily hidden. Those are more likely giant targets if they are deployed anywhere within 1000 miles of an enemy location that is equipped with missiles

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    10. Anonymous,

      The NASA FPS-16 tracking radar was an illustrative example of what was possible using 1960s technology, and how long the technology has been around. It was not intended to argue that FPS-16 would be mounted on a blimp or cruise missile or Super Hornet recon pod. Power requirement went from 1.5MW (1950s SCANFAR / SPS-32 and SPS-33 with vacuum tubes), to 250kW (1960s FPS-16 tubes and transistors), to 10kW (1970s SEASAT SAR imaging satellite with early microchips), to Capella Space / ICEYE / PredaSAR (2020s advanced chips and software, 1kW). In the past 5 years, Raytheon shrunk the Super Hornet’s APG-79 radar to 1/3rd its original size and weight, 2/3 of original power consumption, and air-cooled vs liquid-cooled, exact same capability, for the XQ-58A. A radar with APG-79 capabilities is now small enough to fit inside the nose of a large cruise missile like LRASM, and the cruise missile engine can supply the electrical power required.

      There is not a singular company providing synthetic aperture radar imaging services. There are dozens of commercial firms providing imaging radars and services to governments, especially the US government, and in particular, the US Navy. The US Navy is already using this technology, now that the technology is proven capable of taking images of China’s stealth ships and stealth aircraft (admittedly, sitting on the ground at their air bases).

      The US Air Force, US Space Force, US Army, US Navy, National Reconnaissance Office, Defense Information Systems Agency, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration have all awarded various multi-year contracts to commercial synthetic aperture radar satellites provided by Capella Space, ICEYE, PredaSAR, and Umbra for synthetic aperture radar image products and analysis services, for the express purpose of collecting intelligence and tracking the movement of ships and aircraft and missiles using radar imagery.

      DISA awards 16 contracts for Proliferated Low Earth Orbit Satellite-Based Services (By the Office of Strategic Communication and Public Affairs, July 21, 2023):
      https://disa.mil/en/NewsandEvents/2023/DISA-awards-16-contracts

      This is from a year ago, but the contracts for radar imagery and analysis services have piled up since, probably because our government realizes that private corporations have spent a literal handful of years developing these sensor systems, for a fraction of the cost of our traditional defense contractors, and produced usable results.

      NRO awards five contracts for commercial radar capabilities on a rapid procurement timeline:
      https://www.nro.gov/Portals/65/documents/news/press/2022/BAA_Award_Press_Release_CSPO_20220119.pdf

      An image of what 25cm resolution SAR data provided by ICEYE satellites looks like (560km to 580km orbital altitude):
      https://militaryembedded.com/comms/satellites/25-cm-resolution-sar-imaging-achieved-with-smallsats

      My only thought was moving the eye in the sky with the battle group, accepting that it could be shot down by the enemy, but taking advantage of its speed and months on station. The blimp can leave port with the battle group, and then it can move at 60 to 100 knots at 70,000ft, so it can scout ahead of the battle group, sending back real-time images of ship and aircraft movements from a closer vantage point than a satellite in orbit, using an even larger radar aperture size. It never leaves your operating area, unlike a satellite or even a constellation of satellites, which are never overhead 100% of the time unless you spend a lot more money. Blimps are also easier to re-task than small satellites, which can't make drastic orbital changes. Capella's satellite can focus on a target for 60 seconds at most.

      kbd512

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  8. LibrarianoftheapocolypseJuly 25, 2023 at 5:38 AM

    While we seem obsessed with incredibly expensive hypersonic missiles that can only be used once, it would seem a hypersonic vehicle (drone or manned) would better serve as a scout than a bomb. A Mach 5 drone at 80 to 100,000 ft would be able to cover a lot of sea with good sensors and be hard to intercept even in today's environment. We are already wasting--Uh, I mean investing--mon

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    1. LibrarianoftheapocolypseJuly 25, 2023 at 5:41 AM

      money in it, so why not put some of the development into a hypersonic scout. (sorry the comment is in two parts, hit the wrong button at wrong time.)

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    2. "hypersonic vehicle (drone or manned) would better serve as a scout than a bomb. A Mach 5 drone at 80 to 100,000 ft"

      Are you aware of the plasma effect at that speed? I'm not an expert but from what little I know, the plasma effect may render sensors ineffective. Why don't you check into that and let me know whether you think hypersonic sensors are a viable option.

      The SR-71 was able to operate radar and cameras, however, the speed was 'only' Mach 2-3.

      Another problem with the concept is that a hypersonic aircraft would be incredibly large and expensive. For carrier group scouting, we'd need dozens dedicated to each carrier or surface group in order to maintain continuous coverage and that would quickly become prohibitively expensive.

      All that said, speed, as a means of increasing coverage and enhancing survivability is well worth investigating. Unfortunately, the corrolary of speed is size and cost. Still, worth considering.

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  9. This reminds me - I think you wrote a post about ships "seeing" over the horizon. IIRC optical observations, and using atmospheric effects to see at surprisingly large distances. I can't find the post (and I'm not even 100% sure it was one of yours). Does this ring a bell? If so, does this have any scouting potential?

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    1. That doesn't sound like anything I've written. There are land based, giant, over-the-horizon radars but that's nothing that could fit or operate on a ship. I've never heard of an OTH optical capability.

      I'm guessing it was not one of my blog posts which raises the question, why are you reading some other blog when everything you need is here? Heh, heh. :)

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    2. There is a radar band that is ducted over seawater. It gives you 4/3rd the horizon.

      OTH Radars are large. The TX and RX stations are several hundred kilometres apart. See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jindalee_Operational_Radar_Network.

      Inthe context of fishing boats, it means a wooden boat.

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  10. The Navy should buy the AF's RQ-180. Long range, persistent, high ceiling, and it also offloads the function to a land based asset. It is also low observable, helping to mask the location of the CSG.

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    1. While such an aircraft might be useful for penetrating recon missions, it would be prohibitively expensive for the carrier scouting function. No one knows the cost but give the size and stealth, it is likely several hundreds of millions of dollars each. It is, essentially, a slightly miniaturized B-2 bomber.

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    2. If anything has been learned about the war in Ukraine is that nothing remotely operated is or should be considered safe in a near peer environment. Those assets take the human out of the loop and are highly vulnerable to GPS/Comms jamming.

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    3. The rq-180 had a smaller predecessor in the rq-170. Perhaps that is the route, smaller, more affordable, but still pretty stealthy and still used. Considering it is probably 15-20 years old itself now, with more tech learnings, perhaps an upgraded version is what the navy would want. The flying wing uav's are more air-efficient, hence longer range on less fuel. That sounds like a win, combined with cheap cube satellites and perhaps those "zephyr" uav's that can stay aloft for literally a month, again not 20 million a pop either, mainly wide-winged slow, solar and can carry an adequate sensor package, and if you lose it, so what, perhaps another 3 are flying on their month long journeys...

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  11. Another solution, one being used to a limited extent already, is not to use aviation assets but undersea assets. The old SOSUS network tracked surface ships as well as submarines. A revised system delivered by covert subs or even UUV's could do a lot toward tracking enemy movements. This where a series of dedicated research subs discussed in another post would do well as means of both laying and supporting the network. A better SOSUS would also reduce the number of drones needed for scouting as it could give a bearing for the drones to follow instead of a large scale pattern that might need several (or a big expensive one) to cover.
    The deep network could also be paired with new deep bottom sitting mines. Inactive in peacetime, then activated to do not only do damage but confuse the enemy. The enemy would waste ASW resources searching for a sub that isn't there.

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  12. There's a company attempting to resume production of the PBY Catalina flying boat, I believe one it's roles was long range maritime patrols.

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  13. Best scout should be a drone can be operated from a carrier.

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  14. Reading this I saw an article the other day which I found relevant here. There is a proposal to revive the WW2 PBY Catalina as a turboprop plane. This lead me to think what is the value of stealth when your trying to find the enemy vs the value of multiple cheap platforms.

    The proposal leads me to think that in the pacific stealth is less of a concern vs range and useable airframes/ships.

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    1. The purpose of stealth in the scouting mission is to locate the enemy without him realizing you've done so.

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  15. Perhaps the X-47B Pegasus drone as it's a stealth flying wing, 4500 pound payload, and already undergone carrier compatibility trials, which it passed. And is also capable of receiving fuel inflight from a tanker, which has also been demonstrated. The also made mention of an X-47C variant which is a larger, but would remain carrier capable

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