News has just come out that Trump has reached a trade deal
with China and, at first glance, it appears to be a strategic defeat for the
US.
Note: We’re not going to discuss the political or
financial aspects of the deal, only the military implications.
With regard to the military, the two key elements of the
deal are:
1. US will continue to receive magnets and rare earths
2. US will continue to accept Chinese students
The magnets and rare earths aspect only furthers our
vulnerability to this strategically vital resource. China has never met a treaty or deal that it
wasn’t willing to break (UNCLOS tribunal, for example) when it suited them so
why would we think that China won’t threaten to cut off our supply the next time
some disagreement or crisis arises? We
are continuing our dependency on our enemy.
That’s insane. It would be far
better to quit, cold turkey, and initiate a crash program to produce our own
materials.
If this deal were just a stopgap while we frantically
established our own strategic materials supply, I might be able to accept it
but I see no evidence that we’re engaged in any massively accelerated program
to do so. Human nature, being what it
is, we’ll just continue to depend on China without really addressing our
vulnerability in any useful time frame.
We should be waiving every permit and review requirement in
order to establish our supply as quickly as possible. If necessary, we should be subsidizing
construction and production; after all,
it’s a strategic necessity!
Every Chinese student we educate is both a technological spy
and a future scientific asset to be used against us. We are educating our enemy and giving them a
look at cutting edge university research.
That’s insane.
From a military perspective, I can’t understand what Trump
was thinking. If I’m China, I’m
extremely happy with the deal.
2. US will continue to accept Chinese students
An important detail I read on a Reddit thread https://old.reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/comments/1l7m8l1/chinas_chokehold_on_this_obscure_mineral/ regarding China's monopoly on samarium- a rare earth mineral critical to the production of heat-resistant magnets, as used in supersonic aircraft and missile components- is the fact American companies will NOT mine and refine the rare earth because the market is TOO SMALL to be profitable. That should make the US government fund the operation of the necessary mines and refineries, to maintain our independence from a supply chain China can cut at will and cripple our military industries- but the US government is NOT doing so.
ReplyDeleteAgree with this- if there are critical defense materials that we are absolutely dependent on, then the government needs to find alternate sources, yesterday. If we need to subsidize someone to do it, then so be it. This could be a massive legacy for this administration to leave behind, and hopefully it's somthing that's happening and we just aren't hearing about it yet...
DeleteTrump hasn't told the whole story. In London, only a frame has reached without concrete terms. China's rare earth has limited time frame (6 month as reported) and quantity. According to Chinese Commerce Department's briefs - issued to legitimate commercial entities which means defense industry are excluded. They can cut supply anytime, yet businesses have no inventory.
ReplyDeleteChinese officials keep quiet than declare "winning winning" as Trump. They focus on get real things while let Trump to boast.
There are plenty of rare earth outside China. The key is refining technologies. It takes time to develop but not undoable. What the administration needs to do is to facilitate these R&D. Listen to these truly understand Chemistry.
The refining technologies are USELESS if NO ONE USES THEM; NO ONE USES THEM because the industry is NOT ECONOMICALLY COMPETITIVE with Chinese refineries. Non-Chinese governments must fund the operation of mines and refineries for rare earth minerals- NOT FOR PROFIT, but to maintain independence from China, lest the latter cutoff supplies and cripple non-Chinese industries dependent upon rare earth minerals- there are NO OTHER OPTIONS.
DeleteAfter a boat collision in disputed water, China sanctioned Japan on rare earth in 2010. Japan eventually caved in and released crews held.
DeleteHowever, Japan didn't sit idle. They went on development on particular rare earth's refinement. Eventually, Japan reduced this material's dependence on China to 60% (Chinese one was cheaper).
How did Japan do? Guarantee income for the material supplier. Once they spent money on R&D, no matter how much their product sells above Chinese counterpart, their income is guaranteed. You can Google to find out details.
Question is if Trump and his team is competent to do so? including find out competent ones (than MAGA linked) and raise rare earth tariffs to protect them?
Of course, for the time being, TACO! again. China did so in 2019-2020 to reach a trade agreement with Trump on purchase large quantity of American goods. They have not wasted this time since them to get their critical technologies developed.
Rare earths are anything but rare. It is purely a matter of investing in their refinement. There would be more than enough for the US's needs in the Anglosphere.
Delete"Rare earth content in rock"
DeleteComment deleted for personal attack. Feel free to repost without the personal insults.
Suggested future post, the new very detailed GAO report on new weapons systems and costs.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-25-107569.pdf
This is an annual report and I typically do a post(s) which highlights interesting developments. Some years there's more to write about and other years, not so much. This is one of those years where there's not a lot of new, noteworthy material. Was there some system, in particular, that you'd like to highlight?
DeleteThe cost growth is interesting. The new LCACs are $95 million each and easily destroyed by anti-tank missiles or drones. The cost for the Zumwalts are $10 billion each, and growing!
DeleteIs ‘going cold turkey’ and launching a crash course to develop a rare earth mining and refining capability here America a viable option? Do we have any idea how long this would take, and could we hold out in the meantime?
ReplyDeleteI don’t know the answers to these questions, but hopefully you do.
JS
"a viable option? Do we have any idea how long this would take, and could we hold out"
DeleteIf we treat this as a national strategic emergency - WHICH IT IS - and take all necessary steps, we most certainly can establish a viable supply chain in short order. Necessary steps means:
-eliminating all paperwork and permits (not expediting; eliminating); that means we could start construction tomorrow, in concept
-subsidize companies to whatever degree is necessary
-pass legislation enabling all of this
I'm not an expert in this field, by any means, but I would hope we could be producing in a year from starting. Yes, we might encounter some shortages in the meantime but better to face it and come out of it with an assured, internal supply than continue to depend on China.
Perhaps this would also be a good excuse to dumb down many of our pointlessly overcomplex weapon systems and thereby reduce the need for rare earths and the like.
When evaluating the need for this approach, consider what China has done. They made rare earth production a national strategic imperative and, for all practical purposes, hold a monopoly. This allows them to hold the rest of the world hostage, at will. China has been known to flood the market from time to time in order to quash potential competitors.
DeleteI have no idea whether China's rare earth production produces a profit or not but it certainly confers an overwhelming advantage in trade negotiations, military confrontations, political disputes, etc. thanks to the ever present threat of cutting off exports to any country that crosses them.
This is a case where the cost to the government is immaterial. We must have our own supply chain and cost and climate concerns are irrelevant.
Samarium is a big problem as it is almost exclusively use in defense. Samarium doped permanent magnet can withstand high temperature no other material. Without it, missiles cannot work under high temperature which is normal under high speed.
ReplyDeleteChinese Commerce Department's announcement was ratified some license for civilian use thus leave US defense industry in limbo.
Okay - so - our military can’t do without some element that nobody has ever heard of - it kinda sounds like we’re scr*wed.
ReplyDeleteMining waste can be a source of rare earths.
Deletehttps://news.mit.edu/2024/startup-phoenix-tailings-turns-mining-waste-into-critical-metals-1108
"kinda sounds like we’re scr*wed."
DeleteNo, it sounds like we need to recognize the leverage we've foolishly allowed China to gain over us, get off our behinds, and implement a national security effort to set up our own supply chain immediately.
Tim here. “ RE magnets, and students” are the same; they are natural resources we, under our capitalistic free-wills system of ours, need to harvest globally. Take RE products, Chinese industrial economy is 2-3x of ours and they are going full bore on the renewable energy sectors ( EV, battery, etc where RE products are in heavy demand) while we’re retracting; therefore, they have the advantage of demand and scale, while our Wall Street doesn’t see such profit incentive here. On “students”, 75% of world’s top AI talents are of Chinese heritage (25% here in the US) or in China (50%). This is probably true in all STEM head-to-head competitions against China. If we don’t siphon off China’s best & brightest, China gets to keep them all.
ReplyDeleteYou may be misunderstanding the student issue. I'm talking about Chinese students who come here on some sort of temporary visa, learn, and return to China. That's just handing the Chinese information and capabilities.
DeleteI take it you've also been following the stories of Chinese students smuggling plant bioweapons into the US?
Chinese students who immigrate here and become citizens are more than welcome.
Regarding rare earth production, we've made it unprofitable (and impossible) due to our stifling regulations, permitting process, environmental laws, etc. We need to reverse this and make it profitable.
Yes, I’m aware of this plant bioweapon case; but my emphasis is more on the like of Alex Wang (27yr-old CEO of Scale AI, just sold to Meta for $14B) whose parents came from China’s MIT equivalent. My other point is: it’s a safe bet that Trump & team are just as China-hawk and China-informed as can be, and they made the decisions as such. That means, if you are in their position, knowing what they knew, you’d probably hold your nose and make the same call.
Delete"knowing what they knew,"
DeleteHaving knowledge is not the same as having wisdom. We have two diametrically opposed political parties because both have the same information but have made opposite decisions.
I guarantee I would not make the same decision as Trump.
Dis a search & this is what I found :
ReplyDeleteCanada:
Large Reserves:
Canada is home to some of the world's largest known reserves and resources of rare earths, estimated at over 15.2 million tonnes of rare earth oxide.
Development:
Canada is actively developing its rare earth industry through various exploration projects and investments in processing facilities.
Strategic Importance:
Canada recognizes the strategic importance of rare earths and is working to establish a domestic supply chain for these critical minerals.
Alaska:
Significant Deposits:
Alaska has numerous areas identified as having high potential for rare earth elements, including Southeast Alaska, Interior Alaska, and the Alaska Range.
Exploration and Development:
Several companies are actively exploring and developing rare earth projects in Alaska, with some focusing on specific deposits like Bokan Mountain.
Potential Supply Chain:
Alaska is exploring ways to become a domestic supplier of rare earth elements, potentially playing a significant role in building a US-based supply chain.
So the question I ask is why would we want to deal with China for rare earths.
PB
"why would we want to deal with China for rare earths"
DeleteWe absolutely wouldn't. The problem is that we've made it unprofitable (and impossible) to mine and produce rare earths due to our stifling regulations, permitting process, environmental laws, etc. We need to reverse this and make it profitable.
Consider what happens every time someone even begins to talk about a new oil pipeline. Dozens of lawsuits are filed and the project gets tied up for decades. We need to end this insanity.
A snail darter is not worth risking our national security.
I agree with you. According to a Fox panel the president may use the Defense Production Act. I do see your point.
DeletePB
Therefore, even though the Defense Production Act can be utilized to promote the development of resources like critical minerals for national defense, it does not automatically eliminate the possibility of legal challenges related to environmental regulations, land rights, and other legal frameworks. PB
DeleteOT I'm interested in your thoughts on the large cuts at DOT&E.
ReplyDeletePost coming shortly.
Delete