Recent posts and discussions about Hughes small combatants and The New Navy Fighting Machine (NNFM) have inspired a lot of conversation about so-called green water combatants. These are small ships of a few to several hundred tons, depending on the particular version under consideration, and generally heavily armed, for their size, with missiles and guns. Unit costs are typically estimated as being very low, perhaps unrealistically so.
Now, before anyone starts typing out a reply purporting to show that Elbonia can build supercarriers for $19.95 or whatever your favorite example of a small combatant and the associated country is, remember that trying to obtain true cost numbers for US ships is virtually impossible and trying to compare costs between countries is pointless for a host of reasons. Further, it doesn’t matter what Elbonia can build ships for – it only matters what the US
Moving on … The NNFM document offers this general description of small, green water combatants.
“Coastal combatants are heavily armed, but small enough to accept affordable losses. They should operate in tactical formations of two, four, eight, or twelve vessels. They carry no surveillance aircraft, so depend on CVLs or shore-based reconnaissance. They have small crews in combat and when put out of action the crew is expected to abandon, rather than try to save, the ship, and to be rescued by other vessels. They might team with friendly forces in constricted waters where the large blue water ships should not be put at risk, for example, operating from Turkey or Romania in the Black Sea, from Sweden or Denmark in the Baltic, from Saudi Arabia or Kuwait in the Arabian Gulf, from the west coast of South Korea in the Yellow Sea, or Colombia or Panama in the Caribbean.
They can serve as an advance force to screen blue water ships conducting amphibious operations, or protecting MSC (Military Sealift Command) or MARAD ships delivering men and materials that might be attacked while entering a friendly port.”
Well, that’s a pretty decent description of the kinds of uses proponents envision for them. The problem is that most discussion of green water combat is conceptual and fails to incorporate any realistic assessment of threats. By that I mean that the discussion describes the theoretical abilities of the ship without questioning whether there is any likelihood that those capabilities would actually be needed. For instance, stationing ships in the waters of Sweden Denmark Colombia Panama Philippines
Consider the likely near term (because the vessel’s would have relatively short life spans) scenarios.
Consider escort duties - supposedly another likely scenario. Under what circumstance would ships need escort but only from a low level threat? High level threats would necessitate high level escorts. The escort scenario devolves into an anti-piracy type of role which any vessel with a machine gun can do. It wouldn’t require a specialized green water combatant.
The NNFM suggested the need for host country basing for the green water fleet. OK, that’s reasonable but what friendly country (friendly enough to grant us basing rights) is likely to be attacked by a low level threat that would justify stationing green water combatants there?
In short, the likely conflicts and proposed uses do not offer a reasonable real world green water combat scenario.
Now, this does not say that there would be absolutely no use for a small number of green water vessels but they would be used in peacetime patrol roles and certainly would not justify shifting the emphasis of the US Navy to a green water focus as the NNFM suggests. I find the NNFM’s green water emphasis to be conceptually and generically valid but devoid of demonstrable real world need.
If you want to debate this with me (and you know you do!), tell me what real world location you’d send green water combatants to and what real world threat they would be countering. Hey, I’m open to the concept if it serves a real purpose. If you think you have one, tell me. I’ll acknowledge it if it’s valid.
NNFM might work if based in the SEA to protect SLOC. Also to show the flag around the region and reduce Chinese footprint as it has large influence in Thailand and Cambodia.
ReplyDeleteMaybe arm it with a 76mm DP gun and some harpoon along with SeaRAM. It needs some mine laying/ mine sweeping capability though...
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ReplyDeleteB.Smitty, I fear you've missed the point of the post. - As an aside, I don't care what the combat is called; call it green water, blue, red, pink, or littoral - The point of the post was that if we engage in combat greater than "policing" it will be because we're at war, whether declared or not, and then we'll bring in air power, carrier groups, and whatever else is needed. We won't need or want to engage in small boat on small boat actions. Air power would probably be the method of choice.
DeleteConsider your example of N. Korea. We won't send small boats in to go against small boats. First, they aren't much of a threat and second, we'd send air power to destroy them at our leisure with no risk to any small vessel or crew.
The point of the post is that there is no reasonably foreseeable scenario where small boat combat is a preferred course of action for the US. If you can think of a specific scenario, share it with me! There may be one that I haven't thought of.
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DeleteB.Smitty, you're describing the initiation of unexpected hostilities. In that case, the assets caught on scene do the best they can but their goal is to leave and let the higher power combat assets take over. We don't care if some green water vessel is sunk. That was one of the assumptions implicit in the NNFM concept.
DeleteLeakers?! How many small boats do you think any potential enemy has that would constitute a threat? Not enough sorties? A carrier has 40+ strike aircraft (setting aside armed helos and Burkes with Harpoons/Standards), each of which can engage multiple targets and the carrier can generate multiple sorties per day per aircraft. Sure, if an enemy sends 200 small combatants simultaneously at one carrier we could have a problem, I guess.
Again, this is not a plausible green water combatant scenario. If the enemy has green water combatants that pose a threat they would be dealt with using air power.
I'll repeat, green water combat is a concept that people love to talk about but I have yet to see a scenario which is realistic.
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DeleteB.Smitty, we're discussing hypothetical green water combatants along the lines of the NNFM . I don't want any assets to be caught on scene but if it has to happen, the smaller the better, of course. I repeat, the job of a green water combatant isn't to stand and fight the next Korean war, it's to patrol during peace and leave when a fight comes (why would we be patrolling around Korea with green water ships during peacetime?).
DeleteC'mon, now. If we park a carrier group a mile off shore then, yes, we may have problems with leakers hidden among civilian boats. However, a carrier would operate a hundred miles off shore. What N. Korean navy assets are going to pose a threat to a carrier a hundred miles off shore? They won't know where the carrier is and if they did they would either have to leave the crowded civilian waters to approach and attack or, if they had long range missiles, that's what we have Ticos for. If missile boats choose to hide in civilian boat traffic then we sink everything. That's what real war is and that goes back to my oft-repeated point about having forgotten what real war is.
Look at this from a realistic operational point of view and there just is no scenario where a green water combatant, ala NNFM, is useful. Green water combatants are only relevant when we get into theoretical discussions that have no real world application.
Who would we fight in an all out war that would allow us to operate green water ships in their waters without casually destroying them with their own airpower. Well, we'd protect them with our own airpower and larger ships, you say? Then what's the point? Why not just remove them and strike the enemy's small ships with air power or Harpoon/Standards if we have to have higher end assets in place anyway.
Give me a realistic scenario where some commander says, "We need green water combatants because my carriers, Air Force, Burkes, subs, etc. just can't do the job?" Maybe there's a scenario but I have yet to hear it.
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DeleteB.Smitty, again you're discussing theoretical scenarios and my contention is that there is no reasonably foreseeable real world scenario that justifies green water combatants.
DeleteYou say we've operated SAGs and amphibious groups in congested waters. Fine, what real world location will be operating such groups in congested waters without high end air and surface support? Green water combatants could not do the job themselves and would offer nothing of value - they might, in fact, hinder the job by needing protection, themselves.
Pick another example - Praying Mantis, say. We had plenty of air power. Green water combatants would have added nothing.
And so on.
We won't sink fishing boats without probable cause???? I consider an enemy that hides in fishing traffic to be probable cause. If we're not willing to sink everything in sight than we have to seriously evaluate our rationale for being there, instead of jumping into every police action that comes along.
Patrolling in NK waters? Again, you missed the point of the post. Patrolling in NK waters (setting aside that I can come up with no specific reason why we would - SK has a navy; why would we patrol?) is a peacetime activity. The post is about the usefulness (or lack thereof) of green water combatants in actual combat. If all we're doing is patrolling, we can do that with any vessel that floats.
If you want to hold on to the belief that green water combatants are useful in combat, you're welcome to your opinion. I see no significant use for them, as I've laid out. The NNFM is heavily skewed towards the green water side of things and my contention is that there is no justifiable rationale for that. The entire distributed power, small combatant concept is relevant to the USN only in very narrowly defined circumstances (almost non-existent). Now, peacetime patrolling is another story but it's one that, by definition, doesn't require a combatant.
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DeleteB.Smitty, again I'll remind you that the post is about the suitability of green water combatants for actual combat. Your example is about a peacetime scenario. I have no problem with a low end vessel as a peacetime patrol/monitor. Of course, for that purpose, a civilian yacht would work. It doesn't have to be a green water combatant. Once combat starts, there would be no realistic strategy that would require us to contest the Black Sea that I can think of and if we did we wouldn't use green water combatants. That's the whole point of the post - that green water combatants have no realistic combat role.
DeleteHow is NNFM heavily skewed towards the green water end? How is it not. It reduces the number of carriers (substituting a dubious mini-carrier with only F-35B's), surface ships, submarines, etc. in favor of green water vessels. How is that not heavily skewed?
Forward presence and preventing wars makes an appealing PowerPoint presentation - much as winning the hearts and minds does. As with hearts and minds, the validity of forward presence and preventing wars is questionable, though there certainly have been some notable successes such as the Taiwan strait incident and the Cuban missile crisis. Of course, in each case, the forward presence and deterrent effect was provided by the threat of high end combat power rather than low end green water "influence".
I think Hughes is so focused on the theoretical fleet on fleet model that he fails to ask the basic question whether there is any reasonably likely real world scenario where such small combatants would actually be useful. From my analysis, the answer is that there is not.
ComNavOps, since you're asking for examples, I noticed that the NNFM document mentioned the Black Sea environment (with potential basing in Romania and/or Turkey). This region didn't make it into your critique, though. An oversight, or is that one region where the NNFM might have some value? Or do the same reasons apply here as apply to China?
ReplyDeleteIt seems at first glance that the Black Sea is geo-politically relevant in the short term, meaning there might be a reason for the Navy to be there sometime soon. If our political leadership decided for whatever reason to station heavy US land forces in Ukraine, for example, it seems that the most efficient way to get them there is by sea. In that event, you may very well have the situation where you have assets that need protecting, yet in a place where you don't want your carriers and Ticos found. It's at least one example where having a small number of green water combatants on hand would give the Navy some flexibility and teeth.
Why would you put a carrier in the Black Sea when you could put squadrons of Air Force assets in Turkey or anywhere else in nearby NATO territory for that matter? Surely any action in that area would be NATO rather than unilateral US action?
Deletearcher, you've may have missed the point of the post. The Black Sea is relevant only during peace as a point of influence and politics. Hence, no combat. If a war starts, we'll bring in massive air power. The Black Sea is not a strategically important body of water (depending on what our overall strategy would be, of course) and we would have no reason to care about it from a naval perspective. We would not contest the Black Sea other than, perhaps, denial to the enemy via air power. There would be no reason to have carriers or Ticos there.
DeleteDefinitely had my blinders on - I completely failed to consider the other means we have of operating in that theatre. Fair point.
DeleteIf this post is correct, either (1) All those other navies building these kinds of boats have no real use for them, and they are all stupid, or (2) There is something very different about all those countries compared to the U.S.A.
ReplyDeleteTake Norway as an example. They seem to deploy green water ships mostly in their own waters. Why not just count on the air force sinking anything they care to sink?