As you undoubtedly know by now, a Chinese surveillance balloon has been meandering across American skies for some time now and is reportedly somewhere over Montana, at the moment. The Pentagon has refused to shoot it down due to fear that the debris might injure citizens. We appear paralyzed. A simple balloon has struck fear into our military and appears invulnerable. We look like idiots.
Apparently, the Chinese can hold the US hostage by simply floating balloons over our major cities.
Even if you buy the Pentagon's position that they don't want to shoot the balloon down and risk injuring citizens, why wasn't this thing downed long before it moved over US territory? We're working on hypersonics and vast world-wide networks and yet a simple balloon can defeat us?
 |
| Chinese Balloon |
All I can say is PATHETIC, the military, the national leadership. Looks like a dry run on launching a low end EMP attack.
ReplyDeleteWell, we did let the Iranians capture Navy boats and personnel without a fight. We let them harass our ships with boats and UAVs. What should we expect. We are poorly led.
ReplyDeleteIll second the "pathetic"!!! That thing should have been brought down about 45 seconds after entering our airspace!! (Although Im slightly flexible here- Id of waited just long enough to ensure the remains landed on US territory so it could be quickly dissected)...
ReplyDeleteThe fact that its been allowed to continue across our territory is ridiculous. The potential for it being an EMP device is terrifying. Not suggesting it is, but consider the what-ifs of allowing it to continue on. Its supposedly bobbing along at about 60k feet... So theres roughly a 500+ mile across line of sight bubble underneath it. Imagine if it crosses the east coast in northern Virginia... DC and Norfolk are both well inside that bubble. With hardening of systems being seemingly cast aside years ago- what would that do to the military infrastructure in DC, as well as the ships at our largest naval base??? Scary food for thought...
It could be carrying anything. The Chicoms already spread their WUFLU on us and this could be a dry run for a bioattack (perhaps dropping something benign(ish) but trackable to see how it works,much like our own military did to American citizens in Operation Seaspray).
DeleteThe US military has a budget of about sixty bajillion dollars, and it is baffled by Boy Scout level technology.
ReplyDeleteRemember that one guy who landed on Red Square with some rickety old plane?
"baffled by Boy Scout level technology"
DeleteThis is not new. You'll recall this quote from Korea when the Navy was stymied by ancient mines.
Rear Admiral Allan E. Smith, said, “We have lost control of the seas to a nation without a navy, using pre–World War I weapons, laid by vessels that were utilized at the time of Christ.”
Sometimes something happens that you could never imagine. This is one of those things. Of course, I thought the Afghanistan bug-out could never topped (I was wrong, I guess). No accountability, either. We have been humiliated by China on the world stage.
DeleteWho needs an ICBM when you have a balloon that you can tie a nuke to?
ReplyDeleteA balloon is a pretty uncertain delivery mechanism. Unless you really don't care where your warhead is going...
DeleteThere are so many better ways to deliver a warhead it defies belief that anyone would be dumb enough to hang it from a balloon. Think about shipping containers or airliners instead...
Relax. The comment was tongue-in-cheek.
DeleteWhatever sensor package it is carrying appears to be more than just a camera and a radio, given the size of that solar array.
ReplyDeleteIn 1955, during the Eisenhower Administration, we tried to do that, and we failed. President Eisenhower approved the CIA, Air Force, Navy's program that went by various names: Gopher, Grandson, Genetrix. The balloons were fabricated by General Mills (Yes, the same General Mills that makes breakfast cereals).
ReplyDeleteThe polyethylene balloons, constructed by a division of the General Mills company, were designed to float at up to 85,000 feet and carried cameras in gondolas the size of refrigerators. The gondolas rotated to give the cameras maximum coverage during missions that could last up to two weeks.
The first nine balloons were launched from Turkey and West Germany on January 10, 1956, and took advantage of prevailing winds to float eastward across the Soviet Union and out over the Pacific Ocean. Hundreds more followed. The idea was that once these helium-filled spies had floated out of Soviet airspace, crewmembers of specially equipped Fairchild C-119 Flying Boxcars would zero in on their homing signals and snag the gondolas in mid-air—the same kind of recovery technique later used to retrieve payloads from the first Corona spy satellites.
C-119s did recover a few gondolas, but not many. One source says only 45 out of 516, with only 32 of them producing usable photographs. The Soviet Union was predictably outraged by the violation of its airspace. The Russians put gondolas they had recovered on display in Moscow and sent angry diplomatic notes to the United States. The U.S. merely claimed that the intruders were innocent weather balloons—much as it later claimed the U-2 spy plane was conducting weather research.
Project Genetrix had limited success, with Eisenhower deciding that “the balloons gave more legitimate grounds for irritation than could be matched by the good obtained by them.” One Genetrix balloon did contribute to the U.S. intelligence effort, though. The images it obtained showed construction of a mysterious facility in Siberia near Dodonovo. Analysts realized the complex was a factory for nuclear refining.
The Air Force tried a similar eyes-in-the-skies effort in 1958 with an improved balloon called the WS-461L. Launched from an aircraft carrier in the Bering Sea, the balloons floated up to 110,000 feet to take advantage of a seasonal reversal of the jet stream and float west across the Soviet Union. The gondolas were set to jettison automatically from the balloon after 400 hours in the air, but no one thought to reset the timers after the launches were delayed. That meant the gondolas plunged to earth while still over the Eastern Bloc. The Soviets were not happy; neither was Eisenhower.
(Source: https://www.historynet.com/balloon-spies/
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/high-altitude-spy-balloons-old-concept-new-applications)
Tomcat- Fascinating stuff Id never heard or read much about. Thanks!!
DeleteOn the other hand, had we destroyed the balloon over sea, far away from America, would there be this much uproar in the public?
ReplyDeleteThe rhethoric is that America is bullying China and therefore China is justified in acting against us and we are bad, but this is clearly showing China in a negative light to the American public. The longer this goes on, the longer the left-leaning communists in politics and the national discourse will be discredited.
Remember War Plan Orange - Navy planners recognised in that plan itself that in order for War Plan Orange to succeed, Japan would need to attack first in order to provide a causus belli for a war the American people would support. Consider the massive national support for the first decade of the GWOT after 9/11.
We need to figure out ways to get the Chinese to strike first so we have a clear causus belli that the American people will support - otherwise, they'll stop supporting the war before it's done.
Sir, if the people of America and the leaders of America are not in sync about who the enemy is then it a leadership failure. But to plan to slaughter some of your people so that you can convince the rest of the population about the enemy, speaks volumes about the oratory skills and people connect of the leadership.
DeleteIf China thinks this is bullying, then we might as well do some actual bullying to accomplish some objectives. Many of the actions suggested by ComNavOps on this blog would be a good place to start
DeleteIt is really telling that America has decided not to shoot down a flying platform which has penetrated it's sir space. How do they know it is a surveillance device not a bio weapon spraying some virus in the air.
ReplyDelete-BM
You don't need a balloon. Plenty of airline flights to accomplish the same thing.
DeleteEverybody watches everyone else all the time. This is arguably a good thing. Except normally its done by satellite so there isn't the same level of outrage.
The balloon was operating at some 60,000 to 70,000 feet. At that altitude, much of that bioweapon would probably have been blown into the Atlantic due to the Jetstream.
DeleteEnough of this sillyness from the Chinese.
ReplyDeleteWe need to start placing ever-increasing tariffs on their goods.
Start driving production to other countries.
They need our markets far, far, far more than we need products from them.
Lutefisk
Don't believe the hype. China is no longer an export led economy and hasn't been for years. Their internal economy is so large it makes up by far the largest slice of GDP.
DeleteOTOH, exports to the US make up ~3% of Chinese GDP, and imports to the US make up ~2% of US GDP.
Manufacturing of low cost stuff has mostly moved to other much lower cost countries in Asia. China now makes mainly high-value-add products and disrupting that trade hurts everyone. Not really worth it.
https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/us-and-china-2021-trade-numbers/
China will continue to be export driven. Their demographic decline is going to severely limit the internal markets. They won't have the necessary numbers to support their own GDP by simply selling internally to their small generations that are in their consumption years.
DeleteLutefisk
"They need our markets far, far, far more than we need products from them."
DeleteNot at all by a huge margin. The problem is a lot of supply chains are extremely dependent on Chinese production and China-US trade is just a 3% of China's economy. Your last comment is flat out wrong too. There is no such thing as consumption years and China has the same median age as the USA. But that's not important. What matters is money. Chinese median income is increasing at a rate of 6% annually. They could be losing 3% of their population (40 million people for 2023) every year and their internal markets would still double in just 24 years. Foreign trade hasn't been driver of the Chinese growth for a decade. In fact in 2019 its contribution was little higher than 0%.
This kind of dismissal is what led to the current situation. People comforted themselves at the tales of PRC's fragility. But that's not the case.
@BK
DeleteI think that you need to acquaint yourself with population pyramids and the effects of a rapidly aging population.
Lutefisk
What about the anti-balloon laser Israel developed that seem perfect for dealing with threats like this?
ReplyDelete"The initial deployment reported 90% efficiency"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_Blade
Or has Israel refused to sell them to U.S. (time to cut off their aid if so....)?
Of course given Israel refusal to help Ukraine, Israel probably also refused to sell U.S. their anti balloon laser
Deletehttps://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/haaretz-today/2023-01-25/ty-article/.premium/israels-refusal-to-arm-ukraine-has-never-been-more-embarrassing/00000185-e947-dc4b-a3c7-ede7a2730000
My guess is that Israel has also refused to sell the U.S. their anti-balloon laser just as they refused to help Ukraine
https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/2020/september/israel-unveils-new-laser-system-to-shoot-down-terror-balloons-from-gaza
Maybe the "Pentagon has refused to shoot it down due to fear that the debris might injure citizens" because they though Israel would fast track one of their anti-balloon laser into the U.S. only to be surprised by Israeli refusal (behind the scenes of course) as the Israel laser was designed to protect civilians (as far as I know) and how hard would it be? Just put the laser in the Chinese balloon's path... except Israel refused to transfer their anti-balloon laser and here we are.
I should also add that the Israeli anti-balloon laser has been use in real conditions as shown below
Deletehttps://www.timesofisrael.com/border-police-release-video-of-laser-shooting-down-gaza-arson-balloons/
https://www.algemeiner.com/2020/08/11/amid-surge-of-balloon-attacks-israeli-military-deploys-laser-defense-system-on-gaza-border/
However like below :
Israel not only refused to sell its Iron Dome missile defense system to Ukraine, but it also blocked the U.S. from sending Iron Dome batteries
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/szeaoa/israel_stopped_a_us_attempt_to_transfer_several/
Maybe their behind-the-scenes refusal to supply the U.S. with anti-balloon lasers caught the Pentagon by surprise, hence, why no reaction, as the anti-balloon lasers are about 3 years old by now as they were first deployed in 2020, as fare as I know.
I should add that Israeli "Light Blade" laser seems to have nearly 100% effectiveness in the sector they were protecting as shown below
Deletehttps://www.israelhayom.com/2020/08/26/light-blade-laser-system-intercepts-nearly-100-of-hamas-balloons-in-its-sector/
However, Israeli might have blocked such transfer to the U.S. just as it blocked weapons transfer to Ukraine as politics as our tunnel-vision leaders (like when France leadership was overrun by Nazi Germany in World War 2) are unable to thinking outside of using other means of shooting down balloons as they expected Israel to quickly hand over the laser (which they didn't)
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/02/to-placate-russia-israel-told-baltics-states-it-would-block-weapon-transfers-to-ukraine-sources/
Well, it looks like our tunnel-vision leaders finally got an expensive F-22 to shoot down the Chinese balloon with an AIM-9X Sidewinder (instead of cheaper per shot laser)
DeleteWonder why the China are unhappy as I though it was an out-of control balloon, or blown off course as the article blow claims...
https://eurasiantimes.com/china-unhappy-as-us-f-22-raptor-shoots-down-its-spy-balloon/
Let us give Biden some credit were credit is due shall we(at least his old mind was able to do so) from link above:
US President Biden ordered the action but it was deferred until the balloon was over water off the coast of South Carolina to confirm no citizens on the ground were impacted.
Applauds:)
I am not from America, but should not this been the responsibility of Air National Guard.
DeleteAlso why a missile and not guns.
Which again seems to led credence to my ideas that our leaders were caught tunnel-visioned and so they went with the next best thing their slow minds could think of.
DeleteAnyone remember below?
https://theaviationgeekclub.com/video-f-16-gun-kills-ov-10-bronco-in-brief-dogfight-during-1992-venezuelan-military-coup/
Anyway what do YOU think should have been done?
To make it clear I think that after the Israeli rejected the US request for anti-balloon equipments our leaders, desperate for any alternative, went with an F-22 firing missiles because it was they saw as most effective in the short time they had (and that their OODA loop can handle) because it was what they "observed" as part of the OODA loop. Not because it was the best but because it was all they could come up with themselves as they work their slow minds as fast as they could.
Delete"after the Israeli rejected the US request for anti-balloon equipments"
DeleteThis is speculation, not a fact. Do not present it as fact.
You've been engaged in a long series of comments based on speculation. It's probably time to let this end. Thanks.
"Also why a missile and not guns" Pressure inside and outside the balloon are about even at that altitude. It would leak very slowly, not pop.
DeleteThe video did not seem to show an explosion.
DeleteHas honestly been one of the most bizarre things in 2022. I feel like increasingly 20% of the nation is in panic at whatever the media tells them next and the rest have no clue wtf is happening.
ReplyDeleteAnd lets be honest. If it was over montana or most western states it would have been fine to shoot down. Would have hit pasture or a field.
Exactly. Its a bunch of probably Mylar, plus a few solar panels, plus whatever it was carrying as a payload. I believe at this time China is saying its sondes for a commercial weather balloon, but some hands-on examination and confirmation would be nice.
DeleteI used to watch these being launched from Ft. Churchill in Northern Manitoba in the late 1950s, and it was anyone's guess where they would end up.
2022? You need a new bingo card, sir!
DeleteThe chinese baloon has been a boon for the Pentagon an Politicians. The politicians have used it to deflect from a number of pressing internal matters (police killings, the debt issue and much more). The military has played along as it could have probably shot it down the moment as it crossed into us airspace over water or uninhabited areas. Soon they will request something for having played along. It's just politics, the chinese are just checking how much they can get away with, the americans are doing just the same.
ReplyDelete"It's just politics, the chinese are just checking how much they can get away with, the americans are doing just the same."
DeleteAnd where the lines are currently being drawn is not acceptable.
Yep, I am sure that's what an 80 year old life long public servant cares about at this point.
DeleteLet's avoid the pure politics. Thanks.
DeleteThis kind balloon has no power thus cannot fly on particular designated path. Therefore, its usefulness on surveillance is very low. Chinese government has admitted this is one of their weather observation balloons gone out of control. Of course, Pentagon has right to shoot down any object entered US air space without permission. Downside is to give China an excuse to shoot down any US objects strayed into Chinese air space.
ReplyDeleteA balloon useful for surveillance must have power able to fly on designated path. It should have solar panel to supply electricity.
One example of this kind of surveillance balloon is a Chinese one fly over South China not from Philippines. It stays in same position for a long time because it has power. It also flies much higher than this one.
"Downside is to give China an excuse to shoot down any US objects strayed into Chinese air space."
DeleteI mean, we flew U-2s into Soviet airspace and the Soviets did their best to shoot them down, which led to us developing the SR-71 in turn. This state of affairs really isn't new IMO.
"Downside is to give China an excuse to shoot down any US objects strayed into Chinese air space."
DeleteReally???? The Chinese forced down and seized a US EP-3 aircraft in INTERNATIONAL airspace. I don't think they feel they need further justification to shoot down anything in their territorial airspace.
As you note, a country has the right to protect its airspace within the limits of various international treaties.
At last I understand those photos of Lesgo Brandon staring vacantly at the sky.
ReplyDeleteLight Blade was developed at Ben-Gurion University in the Negev Desert by three civilian engineers and the tech branches of Israel and the IDF, to counter Incendiary Balloons and Kites coming from Gaza. It was first deployed in August 2020. The effective range is estimated to be close to 1.2 miles, day, or night.
ReplyDeleteIron Beam was developed by Rafael Defense and as of October of 2022 it was about 2-3 years away from being fielded. It is designed to counter UAV/UAS, Missiles, mortar rounds, and drone swarms up to 7km away.
(Note: Israel is trying to remain neutral in the Ukraine mess. Selling weapons would negate that.)
The balloon was at about 62,000 feet when the F-22 fired a single AIM-9X from its altitude of 58,000 feet.
The AIM-9X was used because it will target what object an F-22 pilot is looking at. 10-mile or so effective range. The M-61A2 Vulcan has an effective range of 2000 feet or so and the F-22 only carries about 460-480 rounds of 20mm ammunition, coupled with a rate of fire of 4,000 to 6,000 rounds per minute with a dispersion of 8 milliradians diameter, 80 percent circle.
(Milliradians or MILS is a unit of measurement dividing radians in a circle. A radian equals about 57.3 degrees. There are 1000 Milliradians in 1 radian. Basically, that translates to approximately 6,283 MILs in a circle (360 degrees). In artillery, we use MILS because they are a hell of a lot more accurate than Degrees (17.78 MILS per Degree). (FYI)
(Sources: https://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/aim-9x-sidewinder-air-to-air-missile/, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11714125/How-200m-F-22-Raptor-shot-Chinese-spy-balloon-400k-Sidewinder-missile.html, https://www.globalsecurity.org/military//systems//////////aircraft/systems/m61.html, https://www.rafael-usa.com/programs/iron-beam/, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/iron-beam-israels-anti-missile-laser-168570, https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Laser-defense-system-developed-by-BGU-offers-defense-against-drones-619765
Everyone, let's stick to facts and avoid the blatant politics. The various conversations are beginning to wander into pure, unfounded speculation. For example, there is zero evidence that any balloons penetrated US airspace under any former President. The Biden administration's initial claims of such are now being walked back and the latest revised claims suggest that it never happened. So, let's stick to actual facts.
ReplyDeleteThis is a real Chinese spy balloon or airship:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/was-a-high-altitude-airship-spotted-recently-near-the-south-china-sea
This one is not a spy balloon but used in domestic politics