The Chinese just completed a security agreement with Solomon Islands which gives China’s military access to the islands. What, specifically, does the agreement allow? No official copy of the agreement has been released but a leaked ?draft? copy reveals,
A draft of the deal leaked online said it would allow China to send armed forces to the Solomon Islands to protect Chinese investments. Chinese warships would also be permitted dock on the islands.[1]
Prime Minister Mannesseh Sogavare told his parliament in Honiara a day later that [the security agreement] will allow China to send police and military personnel to the Solomon Islands “to assist in maintaining social order”. Chinese warships also could stop in port there for “logistical replenishment.”[2]
According to the draft text, the agreement would allow China to “make ship visits to, carry out logistical replenishment in, and have stopover and transition in Solomon Islands”, leading to fears that China could secure a naval base less than 2,000km from Australia’s east coast.[3]
“The agreement states that China may, according to its own needs and with the consent of the Solomon Islands government make ship visits to the Solomons and carry out logistical replenishment and stopover and transition in the Solomons.”[4]
The above is bad. It gives China the opening it needs to begin establishing a permanent naval base. However, far worse is the following passage from the document:
… the relevant forces of China can be used to protect the safety of Chinese personnel and major projects in Solomon Islands.[5]
This passage gives China carte blanche to establish a permanent military presence in the Solomons in the name of ‘protecting the safety of Chinese personnel and major projects’. How flimsy of an excuse would the Chinese need to justify bringing in military forces? The thinnest of excuses would suffice. Given the blatant lies the Chinese routinely engage in, they won’t hesitate to concoct some ‘safety’ issue when the time comes to establish their base.
Does anyone recall the Chinese assurances that the illegal artificial islands in the South China Sea would not be militarized? Of course, they were militarized in short order. China’s word means nothing and China has a habit of militarizing everything it touches. There is absolutely no doubt that China will construct a naval base in the Solomons under the guise of ‘logistical replenishment’ facility improvements.
There is also a confidentiality clause in the agreement which prohibits either party from publicizing any of the terms or actions related to the agreement without the other’s consent.[5] This provides further cover for the Chinese to act clandestinely.
So, what has been America’s response?
A high-level American delegation will go to the Solomon Islands next week. The United States said it will re-open its embassy in Honiara, which has been closed since 1993.[1]
Talk about closing the barn door after the horse has got out!
The US has talked about a Pacific Pivot but has utterly failed to do anything. We haven’t substantially increased our military presence. We haven’t made any significant attempt to conduct a political campaign in the region. We’ve exerted no economic influence. And so on. Clearly, we’ve ignored relations with the various Pacific countries.
Sending a delegation to the Solomons after the fact is simultaneously useless, embarrassing, and humiliating.
At this point, one might ask whether a Chinese base (and there will be one) in the Solomon’s is a serious concern for the US. After all, the Solomons are around 3970 miles from the Chinese mainland coast, depending on exactly where one measures from. Isn’t that an awfully distant and isolated base for China? Is it really a threat?
A Chinese base in the Solomons gives them their Pearl Harbor … their far forward base to support deep Pacific air and naval forces in both times of war and times of war. Huh? Did I just repeat myself? Don’t I mean times of war and times of peace? No, I don’t because, for China, there is no difference between war and peace. For China, peace is just the non-shooting portion of the war. They are already at war with us and they’re winning. We’re steadily retreating and appeasing. They’re achieving all their objectives and we’re failing ours, to the extent that we even have any objectives.
In the mind of the Chinese, peace and war are the same thing. There’s no difference other than methods and means. China is at war and we’re just sitting back in a Chamberlain appeasement mode. A base in the Solomons gives the Chinese a resupply and support facility to further their expansion efforts.
Just for fun, let’s check the distance from Pearl Harbor to San Francisco … it’s 2400 miles. That’s awfully isolated and far from the US mainland and resupply. So, if the isolation/distance argument is valid for China in the Solomons, it’s also valid for the US and Pearl Harbor. Of course, Guam is even more isolated and far from the US and resupply at 5800 miles. On a related note, the distance from Pearl Harbor to Guam is 3800 miles. So, as China acquires bases in the Pacific, who’s more isolated and distant?
Consider these distances:
- Distance from Chinese coast to Solomon Islands = 3970 miles
- Distance from San Francisco to Solomon Islands = 5960 miles
- Distance from Pearl Harbor to Solomon Islands = 3560 miles
- Distance from Guam to Solomon Islands = 1914 miles
- Distance from Darwin to Solomon Islands = 2000 miles
It is the US that has far flung and isolated bases. With a couple more security agreements with other Pacific island nations, it will be the US in the position of being isolated and unsupported in the Pacific.
Aside from Japan, the only other Pacific military of any note is Australia and they are an extremely small force. For example, the entire combat fleet of the Australian navy[6] consists of :
- 8x Anzac frigates
- 3x Hobart destroyers
- 6x Collins submarines
That’s not a significant naval force.
The US currently has a significant advantage in terms of global geopolitics, finances, economics, presence, and military force. However, we are doing very little to maintain those advantages and almost nothing to enhance them. Meanwhile, China is expanding their influence in all those areas at a breathtaking pace. They are expanding and winning; the US is shrinking and losing.
A Chinese Pearl Harbor in the Solomons is just the next step in China’s plan to conquer the Pacific.
We need to recognize that we are at war with China and start fighting back.
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[1]VOA News website, “Solomon Islands Sign Security Pact With China”, Phil Mercer, 20-Apr-2022,
https://www.voanews.com/a/solomon-islands-sign-security-pact-with-china-/6537279.html
[2]https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/solomon-islands-china-pact-has-us-riled-2642971
[3]The Guardian website, “China requested heavily armed security team be sent to Solomon Islands, leaked documents reveal”, Kate Lyons, 12-Apr-2022,
[6]https://www.navy.gov.au/fleet/ships-boats-craft/current-ships
21st century island hopping.
ReplyDeleteChina knows what she's doing, for sure.
I understand what you're saying but bear in mind that China is sowing the seeds of eventual failure by using methods such as debt traps, deceit, fraud, etc. that are creating a LOT of resentment in the world. China is succeeding in its short term goals, without a doubt, and doing so efficiently but is also ensuring ultimate failure by creating a 'world against China' attitude. Someday, that bill will come due and the world is going to rise up and stomp China back. So, no, China does not know what it's doing but they're doing it quite efficiently which was the point I think you were making.
DeleteChina is also very efficiently seizing entire islands without having to go through the messy process of armed invasion and occupation. The only part of any island that matters is the naval base so China is (efficiently) acquiring the bases without the messy total island ownership problems. Gotta give them credit for that.
"...useless, embarrassing, and humiliating."
ReplyDeleteCertainly!! While the Solomons, the Phillipines, and other territories in the Pacific are soverign nations, there are still people alive who lost friends and family liberating them. They arent "ours", but to watch them being enveloped without a shot, by an aggressive and expansive power, led by the most murderous regime in modern times, its far worse than that.
History has plenty of examples that tell us where this is leading, yet nobody wants to listen. Everyone wringing their hands about offending a major trading partner, the US included, would do well to think beyond their checkbook, and history still unwritten will be a harsh judge of our inactions...
Korea Taiwan would like a word. Plus France and UK still have skin in the game.
ReplyDeleteNo idea what this comment is related to or what point you're trying to make. Try again with a bit more explanation?
Delete"Aside from Japan, the only other Pacific military of any note is Australia and they are an extremely small force." I'd say Korea has Australia beat by a sound margin.
DeleteThe problem with the "Pacific pivot" is that we never pivoted.
ReplyDeleteIn 1992 Ross Perot said something that I had been thinking for some time before, "In the post-Cold-War world economic power will be more important than military power." We ignored that and have tried to continue to impose our will, burying our heads in the sands of the MidEast while China has badly outflanked us.
We can still pull this out, but we need a major paradigm shift, and quickly. Do I see that coming from any of our leaders, civilian or military? Nope. And that is not a political opinion, because I don't see anyone in either major party who has a clue.
"economic power will be more important than military power"
DeleteThe US is spending enormous amounts on foreign relations. We're just not getting any return on our investment and we're not spending it in the right places and in the right way. For example, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which is tasked with developing foreign relations, is budgeted for $28 billion this year. What benefits are we getting from it? None that I can cite off the top of my head. In comparison, China spends a couple billion and gets a strategic naval base.
So, we're exercising economic power, in that we're spending enormous sums of money on foreign countries, but we're accomplishing little.
"So, we're exercising economic power..."
DeleteNo, we're spending money with nothing to show for it, because we don't have a clue how to go about exercising economic power.
Well looking on the bright side, the Australian navy doesn’t need nuclear attack submarines to reach the the Chinese navy now!
ReplyDeleteMA
If you google "China investment in the Solomon Islands", you'll find a Council on Foreign Relations article on China's investment in the Pacific island countries (not just the Solomon) at around $200M annual (2019). That's the 'war' right there, a miserly $200M/yr.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the map, put a HQ9 and HQ22 SAMs, maybe lengthen a bit HONIARA runway to land some heavy cargo plans and some J20s and sure looks like China just cut off the shortest USA from Australia route....
ReplyDeleteThe 'glass is half full' view is that this gives the Marines some great locations to utilize their clandestine ship sniping plan against Chinese warships.
ReplyDeleteLutefisk
Australia is well aware of this and the first trip new Foreign Minister Penny Wong made was to the Pacific Island nations, I think, just days after she was sworn in. She's been damn busy.
ReplyDeleteFrom the info I've read, it's because the current head of SI is corrupt. While the good guys followed the rules, he played them. eg there was a coup against him, and he actually asked for assistance, which Australia gave, in restoring order. And then he still backstabs Aust, since he was being bribed by China.
Here's a longgg list of articles on the Solomon Islands at the Australian site "The Strategist" :
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/?s=solomon+islands&x=0&y=0
It's bad. China is no longer 5000-7000miles away.
Andrew
Some things to keep in mind.
ReplyDeleteWhile the Solomon's national government is taking Chinese money the largest provincial government is pro western. It has twice the population of the largest other 8 provinces.
Australia has a small military. It can plug into at any level into the US Military. Our Airforce is the most technologically advanced in the world. We use US planes but all our planes are new. No old stuff.
Australia does have a small military,but it also has a small population. I think given its strong economy making recruiting difficult,the policy of quality over quantity is the right choice.
DeleteMA
The bad part here is the West as I'll call it will be forced into action if any actions in the Solomons are the pretense to have China send in forces, which to "maintain social order" could be anything, like an excise tax on imported booze or exported coconuts that leads to a simple protest march. We in turn will look like the aggressors, even if it's a blatant Chinese invasion. Or of course we do nothing, the Solomons could politely ask the Chinese to leave, and well, ask Molodova how easy it is to remove someone else's troops after the fact even if you ask nicely and every year repeat the ask...
ReplyDeleteApparently Australia is trying to recruit (less than) 1000 troops per service, per year but is running about 30% low -- their military size is very, very small
ReplyDeleteThe Russo-Iran pipeline may have greater strategic significance.
ReplyDeleteGAB