Thursday, March 30, 2023

Amphibious Assault Size

Our peacetime paradigm has led us to believe that war is a small affair:  a few ships, a company of soldiers, a platoon with a few missiles (according to the Marines!), a carrier and a couple of escorts, etc.  We’ve forgotten the immense scale of effort that a true war requires.  Let’s take a look at historical amphibious assaults from WWII and remind ourselves of the size of the effort required for success.
 
 
Guadalcanal - 11,000 troops initial assault, 1st Marine Div, plus 6,000 additional men from various battalions over the next few weeks;  initial force proved too small and required additional Marine and Army reinforcements
 
Tarawa/Makin - 35,000 troops, 36 transports, 2nd Marine Div.; 8th, 2nd, 6th, 10th, 18th Regiments plus other battalions; 27th Army Div., 165th Regiment, 3rd Battalion/105th Infantry Regiment
 
Kwajalein – 85,000 troops,4th Marine Div, 7th Army Div, 300 ships
 
Eniwetok – 3500 troops, 22nd Marine Reg., 106th Infantry Regiment
 
Saipan - 60,000 – 70,000 troops, 2nd Marine Div, 4th Marine Div, 27th Infantry Div
 
Guam - 36,000 troops, 3rd Marine Div, 77th Infantry Div
 
Tinian – 15,000 troops, 2nd Marine Div, 4th Marine Div
 
Peleliu – 28,000 troops, 1st Marine Div, 81st Infantry Div
 
Luzon - 175,000 troops;  6th Army, 800 ships
 
Iwo Jima – 110,000 troops, 3rd, 4th, 5th Marine Div;  500+ ships
 
Okinawa - 200,000 troops, 1st, 2nd, 6th Marine Div, 7th, 27th, 77th, 96th Infantry Div
 
Normandy – 173,000 troops, 4th, 82nd, 90st, 101st, 1st, 29th Infantry Divisions plus several British and Canadian divisions
 
Desert Storm – While not an amphibious assault and not even remotely approximating a high end, global, peer war, it still involved some 600,000+ troops of all types.

 
We’ve come to believe that an amphibious assault can be conducted by a platoon, company, or, at the high end, a 2000 man Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU).  This is simply not true.  The best any of those can do is a minor raid and, in the context of a peer war, those would be very minor annoyance raids, at best.
 
In addition to noting the size of the ground forces, check the size of some of the naval components:  up to several hundred ships!  Our entire current Navy would be insufficient to conduct a single assault.
 
We’ve completely forgotten the magnitude of the forces necessary to wage a high end war.  The only point to this post is that we have got to start remembering what real war entails and start training for and factoring in the sheer magnitude of: 

  • Ground force size (tens to hundreds of thousands of troops)
  • Logistics required to support massive ground forces
  • Horrifying attrition
  • Naval force size assets (hundreds of ships)
  • Industrial manufacturing capacity (see attrition)
  • Munitions consumption on a staggering scale
  
Our pathetic exercises involving platoons and companies or a few ships is so insufficient and inadequate as to border on criminal (in the figurative sense).  We have to scale our exercises up to semi-realistic sizes.  We need to exercise actual divisions, not virtual simulations.  We need to assemble and exercise several dozen ships at a time and learn how to command and control them as well as keep them supplied with munitions and fuel (guaranteed we can’t).
 
Almost none of this involves the pursuit of new technology which seems to be the military’s main focus and default solution to any problem or question.  We are so far off the correct path we can’t even see it from where we are!  The Navy is, by their own public statements, facing an imminent Chinese war …    and they’re downsizing the fleet!  In what alternate reality does that make sense?
 
As I keep saying, we’ve forgotten what real war is.  Perhaps this post will help us remember.


38 comments:

  1. I don't think we will ever launch a full-fledged amphibious assault against either the Chinese or Russian mainland. I can foresee a couple of things:
    1) Some kind of island landing in the first island chain to oppose a Chinese assault, or to try to retake an island that China has occupied (this could include the artificial "islands"), or in the eastern Mediterranean or Baltic to oppose Russia, or perhaps somewhere in the MidEast to oppose a rogue state or terror organization.
    2) Some kind of proxy war, like during the Cold War, in some third country, similar to Korea or Vietnam.

    I think we need to prepare for those first, and my guess is that at present we are woefully unprepared for either. I don't see a 2000 man MEU as adequate for either.

    I do think it is incredibly important that we start planning and training and equipping for these, and applying lessons learned from boots on the ground, not paper on a table. I have proposed bringing tanks and artillery back to the Marines, and have doubled the size of the MEU to 4000 in what I have called a combined arms MER, with an infantry battalion, tanks (and I like g2mil's idea of a small tank for Marines), artillery (tube, rocket, and AA), amphibious armor (including an amphibious tank like China's), commandos, and organic air. That concept needs to be tested and adjusted.

    I just don't see the EABO concept being viable in any event. It still strikes me as a bunch of boy scouts with BB guns, and I don't see how they will be landed, obtain targeting, get logistic support, and/or be evacuated safely if need be.

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  2. Let’s look at actual likely scenarios. The 3 likely locations for amphibious assault are:
    1) Philippines to take back some artificial islands. This would probably be a small BLT sized operation which a MEU is capable of conducting.
    2) assault Iran either on one of the islands or on mainland to keep straight of Hormuz open. This could be any size element depending on area being assaulted but a fairly large force can be brought ashore quickly with LCUs, high speed vessels, and LCACs because the distances from UAE are short and we have lots of assets in the Persian Gulf
    3) an assault on either coast of the Korean Peninsula to aid in operations against Kim’s regime. This would probably be a mainly ROK Marine mission with some U.S. units supporting. Since the distances are very close, the Army’s LCU 2000s in theater can provide significant lift with their 6000 mile range.
    Can’t think of another reasonable scenario where we plan to conduct a landing in hostile territory.
    The more pressing concern is how to bring anything bigger than infantry and thin skinned trucks ashore when all 3 scenarios will probably require tanks or some other form of direct fire support.

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    1. There is no scenario in which we would want to possess an artificial island. They are too small which renders them completely defenseless. Their only value is pre-war as a political tool. In war, a handful of cruise missiles vaporizes the reef.

      The other scenarios are unlikely as there are far more effective overland avenues of attack.

      All that said, there is very little reason for maintaining any amphibious assault capability beyond a core/cadre against some unforeseeable future need.

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    2. What overland attack route is there to the Iranian side of the straits of Hormuz that does not go through a lot of heavily defended Iran?
      The amphibious assault on the Korean Peninsula is either to take a most direct route avoiding the heavy concentration of troops on the DMZ by conducting an amphibious assault behind the troops on the DMZ or to conduct a surprise operation to divert troops from engaging the main body coming across the DMZ. Either scenario is plausible.
      Lastly, if the Chinese are stupid enough to make themselves a target on an artificial island, should we not take the opportunity?

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    3. "What overland attack route is there to the Iranian"

      Well, there's all of Iraq and through NATO ally Turkey. That seems plenty.

      "amphibious assault on the Korean Peninsula"

      Given the large border area between N and S Korea, there are plenty of overland attack possibilities without having to resort to an amphibious assault for which we have no capability. In addition, the hundred thousand mines or more than NKorea has will tend to render any possible assault moot given our complete lack of mine clearing capability - witness the inability of the Marines to conduct an amphibious assault in Desert Storm. The Marines claim to have conducted a diversion but that was only after they attempted to plan a real assault and realized they couldn't due to mines.
      "should we not take the opportunity?"

      Yes, the opportunity to casually destroy them, not to occupy and indefensible island and be destroyed in turn!

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    4. Iraq and Turkey border Iran on the West and North respectively which requires fighting all the way across the country to reach the Strait of Hormuz in the East. It is much easier to conduct an amphibious assault on the islands near Hormuz or on Bandar Abbas and the lift is probably there if we need it, even though it may have to be contracted.

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  3. Another very pressing concern is the naval gunfire required to support any amphibious assault because the only naval gun platforms are probably going to be employed doing Navy priority missions instead of waiting cutting squares to fire their single 5 inch guns which are inadequate against most targets that are not two legged.

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    1. You think they will move a 2.4 billion dollar ship into range of a artillery duel? We need game changing ammo or guided rockets in real numbers.

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    2. "We need game changing ammo or guided rockets in real numbers."

      Or armor.

      Why is the answer to every problem always 'game changing' technology? Why can't it be old fashioned armor, resiliency of design, redundancy, separation, backups, etc? You know ... stuff that just requires intelligent design instead of next generation technology that doesn't exist and won't/can't in any useful time frame. We always default to new, non-existent technoloogy instead of existing, proven concepts.

      Want a ship that can stand in close and duke it out with enemy artillery? Design a ship that is armored and dripping with CIWS. Design a ship that uses counter-battery fire capabilities that already exist. And so on.

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    3. "Why is the answer to every problem always 'game changing' technology? Why can't it be old fashioned armor, resiliency of design, redundancy, separation, backups, etc? You know ... stuff that just requires intelligent design instead of next generation technology that doesn't exist and won't/can't in any useful time frame. We always default to new, non-existent technoloogy instead of existing, proven concepts."

      Not every "Game Changing" technology needs to be new. As an example the Swiss pike blocks were merely a two thousand year later copy of the Greek Phalanx. The fact didn't make any less revolutionary or deadly to the poor bastards on the wrong side of it.

      Effective naval armor would be exactly the same kind game changer.

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    4. Or a cheaper purpose built ship. How about a small ship low profile ship with 6 or 8 M109A7 155mm howitzers self loading turrets that can be crewed by artillery Marines who go ashore once NGF is no longer needed to lighten the crew requirements. The extended range of the ERCA turret is 70km which is over 3 times the range of the Navy’s 5 inch guns and 155mm has much more munition options and much better effects on armored targets. All we need is a ship with some stabilization for the turrets like a modern day Monitor.

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    5. How bout some El Cheapo Fast Support Vessels like those used for the Overlord USV program with a pair of 155mms on the back? ~$30M in their Overlord configuration. Maybe use the Mandus 155mm Brutus soft recoil version of the M777. Don't need stabilization, but could develop a fire-on-the-roll sensor and trigger.

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    6. " ~$30M in their Overlord configuration."

      Navy budget docs show expenditures of $70M (2021) and $145M (2022) for a single, unnamed large USV.

      Adding a 25 ft howitzer plus accompanying fire control, stabilization modifications, communications, corrosion control modifications, ammo storage and handling (autoload mechanism?), etc. is going to run the cost up into the hundreds of millions of dollars! Of course, that presupposed that the structure of those tiny vessels can even handle the stresses incurred by the mounting (moment of inertia) and operation (repetitive recoil).

      And then there's crew quarters, potable water, food storage, etc.

      $30M???? Have you met the Navy?

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    7. "pair of 155mms on the back"

      At 25 ft each plus the room for all the associated support mechanisms, one would be a stretch!

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    8. Don't confuse the cost of the ships with the cost of the overall LUSV program. These ships are cheap. Making them autonomous is expensive.

      The cargo deck is over 130ft long and 26ft wide, so a couple 25ft guns doesn't seem like a lot.

      No need for an autoloader. Just man them with their normal 5-7 crew.

      Ammo storage would be in containers on deck.

      Doesn't need stabilization. Fire-on-the-roll was good enough for WWII, so should be good enough here. Would have to handle corrosion, but a relatively simple mount like the Brutus M777 should be fairly easy to corrosion proof. Brutus is a low-recoil mount that can be fired off the back of an FMTV. Should be able to handle firing from a deck like this, but obviously it would have to be tested.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6f-m8HxHHwk

      These FSVs are designed to carry 100 passengers for sort durations. I'd repurpose that deck for long term berthing and C3 spaces. Should be plenty for a couple dozen additional crew.


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    9. Game changing technology.... The Liberty Ship had a state of the art...... triple expansion engine! But clearly was the right technology for the time to build boatloads of them... (ohh. that was a bad pun...sorry) Sometimes what you have is good enough if you have... enough of it.

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  4. Apples to oranges comparison, but yes, we have reached the point of needing to appreciate qty again. LSM and EPF are a start. How about building some Seawaymax ships we can stash up in the fresh water for 100 years until we need them?

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    1. Nothing wrong with having idled ships waiting to be called, however, the challenge is maintaining them. Finding spare parts after even 5-10 years is a challenge and becomes a bigger problem with each passing year.

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  5. The Navy wants more subs, and fighting ships. The marines want more amphibs.
    https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2023/3/29/expeditionary-expectations-navy-marine-corps-at-odds-over-fleet--requirements

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    1. In my "i want" fantasy navy- Id say that DDG(X) will be a proper AAW cruiser without ASW/helo. DDs will revert to ASW focus (freshened Spruance? with modern gear)or be gunships (revisit the MCLWG, and look at two twin mounts??), and theyll be distinctly separate optimized classes. The FFG will be an FF, no Aegis, just a small ASW/escort ship. All DDs will get 4 point defense systems, FF probably two.
      If I dream further, Id probably SLEP the first two Nimitzes, just to insure we dont rely on the Fords until theyre actually combat capable, and once they are, the Nimitzes that are retired would be kept in a high reserve status.
      Of course we need to massively expand air wings, and probably need at least 12 full strength wings(circa 1990) in order to not only equip 10 CVNs, but to absorb the losses. In that vein, the the fighter will NOT be an F/A...
      As far as amphibs... Idk. I feel like its a likely-unused capability, so not sure where I go there. Probably try.to maintain the core capability and institutional knowledge (whatever little remains), but would likely put most of the big decks in reserve. The aviation-centric versions dont contribute enough combat capability to justify their cost and manning requirements. Just my two cents...

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    2. That's a better navy than the Navy!

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    3. What do you propose for targeting/surveillance assets? As you know, missile range means nothing without long range, SURVIVABLE targeting/surveillance assets.

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    4. The navy has the Triton drone and perhaps other drones for ISR. In another post it was suggested to add a drone carrying ship to launch a multitude of drones to cover broad areas. Using satellites for ISR is currently being done . Targeting will be the question at long rfage.

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    5. "Triton drone"

      The problem is that large, slow, non-stealthy drones are not survivable. In order to be effective, a surveillance asset must survive long enough to find a target and transmit its location. Large drones cannot do that.

      The Air Force has abandoned large drones over the battlefield specifically because they are not survivable.

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    6. Drones are key to the modern battlefield as proven in Ukraine. Here are four from Costco, and remember these are retail prices.

      https://www.costco.com/aerial-cameras.html

      So purchased in mass probably $300 each wholesale. The problem is they are too difficult to shoot down with anti-aircraft guns or require lots of ammo to hit one. NATO sent Ukraine its SAM systems with $2 million missiles, which are practical to hit these, and may miss anyway. Jamming is the other option, which has mixed results. If flown on a pre-programmed route, impossible to jam. These can also carry hand grenade size explosives.

      A Marine infantry battalion and Navy destroyers should have 1000 of these ready to use, but I suspect they only have a dozen. A destroyer can send them after enemy UAVs, helicopters, small boats, ship radar, or just guys on deck.

      But the problem for the US military is there are no big profits for defense contractors so no interest in the Pentagon.

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    7. Im not sure the Ukraine war is proving drones are a key. It shows they're emerging and being used, sure but beyond that I think the jury is still out. I peeked at the drone examples, and even the $1000 one only has a 7.4 mile range/40min flight time. That might be useful on land but at sea its meaningless- thats about the visual horizon from a bridge wing...
      Idk of theres a happy medium size that could be ship launched, have meaningful range (100mi, 200??), have stealthy characteristics, carry decent enough sensors to be useful, and be disposable. I envision preprogrammed, not controlled flight, and nothing more than a burst transmission sent back if targets are found. Of course that asks, who/what receives that message?? Satellites? AWACS? Fighters?? Im not sure.
      For the air launched ones, theyd just act as range extenders, or remote sensors for the fighters, where altitude allows extended comms. But for ship launched drones, idk. Seems like there will have to be some aerial assets involved to make use of them, unless theres no ASAT activity by the enemy...

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    8. This channel has lots of short videos of drones in action over Ukraine.

      https://www.bitchute.com/channel/nnwlaOOuDM1W/

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    9. Sure. And clearly they are showing some surveillance use, as well as some clever home-brew annoyance attacks, even disabling armor. And some of the uses have been truly clever and successful. But again, at sea, where ranges are significantly higher, cheap and small off the shelf type stuff isnt going to have any value- again, thats where that balance between size, cost, payload capability, and range needs to be found, and a solid Conop needs to be figured out before we can even begin to search for that balance....

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  6. "What do you propose for targeting/surveillance..."

    Thats a tough one. But ill try... First, we should clearly be looking at satellites that give us realtime coverage of the SCS and Phillipine sea. But that would require many many of them. Plus, we have to assume at least some ASAT activity, as well as damaged, compromised, or jammed links. So organic surveillance is still needed. First, Id look at SSNs for a large piece of that puzzle. Air Force stealth aircraft are also an important joint part of the puzzle. The new envisioned (not F/A) fighter is another key here. I have no idea if someone is going down this path, but I think simple air launched drones that can extend the fighters "veiw" by a hundred plus miles would be very useful. One way, disposable, "only call me if you see somthing" type drones. If we could get a fighter with half again the current range (obviously double is a better target but trying to remain realistic), then we are approaching a usable sized situational awareness. The drones size (and detectability) is a balancing act with its range, and somthing I cant speak knowledgeably about.

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    1. Just another thought. Lockheed has been developing a replacement for the SR71 called the SR72. Perhaps it will have enhanced performance characteristics as the Blackbird. ( I read about hypersonic flight )

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    2. Just another thought. Lockheed has been developing a replacement for the SR71 called the SR72. Perhaps it will have enhanced performance characteristics as the Blackbird. ( I read about hypersonic flight )

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  7. "What do you propose for targeting/surveillance assets?"

    I've felt for awhile that, instead of a drone tanker, we should have built a long range stealthy reconnaissance drone. F-18 range can be extended either by adding JASSM-ER (instead of SLAM-ER) or by reactivating S-3's as tankers. Or both. Or maybe even making an air-launched Tomahawk. At least in the near term, until new aircraft with longer ranges can be developed.

    The Air Force allegedly has the RQ-180 (it's still secret, so can't be sure) which is supposedly quite stealthy, but there aren't very many of them and they require land-based runways, which may not be common in WestPac during a war.

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    1. That was initially one of the goals for UCLASS, before it was scaled back into the CBARS drone tanker. In some respects, I think that was the right choice: we have to walk before we can run.

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    2. "That was initially one of the goals for UCLASS"

      The key point here is that it was ONE of the goals. Again, trying to be too many things. How about JUST reconnaissance?

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    3. "How about JUST reconnaissance?"

      Explore that a bit. What would your idea of a pure recon drone look like? What sensor(s) would it use? How big would it be? How would it survive long enough to do its job? How would it communicate back to its control point without giving itself away?

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    4. "What would your idea of a pure recon drone look like?"

      Well, not an expert but the Air Force already has the fairly stealthy RQ-170 drone and the allegedly (it's still classified) very stealthy RQ-180. I believe they are flying wing designs. Problem is there aren't very many and they are runway-dependent. And runways will probably be in short supply in Westpac during a war. There's also, of course, the Navy's own X-47 which looks fairly stealthy (certainly compared to the Global Hawk, Reaper,
      AWACS or P-8).

      So for an initial pass, I'd start with something like that, possibly shrink it a bit to make it carrier capable.

      I believe many of these aircraft have the ability to fly waypoints, so constant communication isn't required. I think directional communications, for when it is required, will help.

      There's also the thing that we don't (per your previous comments in other contexts) think carriers are likely to be performing deep penetrating airstrikes inside the Chinese integrated air defense system. So that means this aircraft probably doesn't need to operate in that area either. I see it as most useful in areas like the South and East China seas, to attack Chinese Navy vessels. Or possibly for targets along the coast, like bases or whatever. Note that when I say "attack", I don't mean that this aircraft would do the attacking. It would provide targeting information for cruise missiles.

      Probably would try to use passive sensors as much as possible. Radar may be necessary occasionally, but it should only be occasional (with the drone making rapid course changes after each pulse).

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    5. "Well, not an expert "

      You've got a better concept than the Navy!

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