Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Do You Trust Them?

China is developing their own stealth aircraft fleet.  If we think our stealth aircraft will be effective, presumably theirs will be, too, right?  Well, the US military doesn’t think so.  For example, here’s the public assessment of China’s copy of the B-2 bomber, the H-20, by a Department of Defense official speaking on condition of anonymity:  
… the H-20 is when you actually look at the system design, it’s probably nowhere near as good as US LO [low observable] platforms … [1]
 
Asked whether the H-20 is a concern, the official replied “Not really.”[1]
For a Navy that is hollowed out worse than I can ever recall, has systemic maintenance problems, is steadily shrinking in numbers, has personnel and leadership character issues, and has had a long string of failed acquisition programs, that’s an incredibly arrogant attitude to have.  Now, perhaps the Navy has access to information about top secret Chinese aircraft that give them reason to be dismissive but I seriously doubt that.
 
Artist Concept of H-20 Bomber

 
It’s not just the H-20 that the Navy is dismissive of but also the J-20 stealth fighter and it’s not just an anonymous official but an Air Force general who publicly offered this comment: 
Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach told reporters that the J-20 stealth fighter isn’t “anything to lose a lot of sleep over.”[1]
Again, barring inside information about China’s most secret weapons, this is beyond belief arrogant.
 
J-20 Stealth Fighter

 
Given all the failed programs, misguided policies, and incorrect assessments of our own needs and capabilities, do you really think the military has correctly assessed China’s capabilities?  We’ve been wrong about most of our own stuff;  do you think we’re suddenly right about China’s?  Do you trust our military’s assessment?
 
Now, here’s the kicker – even if the military’s assessment is correct and the Chinese stealth aircraft are not as good as ours, our own aircraft and pilots are badly degraded.  Mission availability rates are abysmal and pilot training has fallen off badly with pilots struggling to get enough flight hours to even stay flight certified let alone tactically superior.  So, even if the Chinese aircraft are not as impressive as they’re claimed, neither are our own aircraft and pilots.
 
This is highly reminiscent of the US military’s dismissive attitude toward the Japanese just prior to WWII.
 
Those who will not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
 
 
 
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[1]Breaking Defense, “China’s new H-20 stealth bomber ‘not really’ a concern for Pentagon, says intel official”, Michael Marrow, 22-Apr-2024,
https://breakingdefense.com/2024/04/chinas-new-h-20-stealth-bomber-not-really-a-concern-for-pentagon-says-intel-official/
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23 comments:

  1. AnonymousApril 24, 2024 at 4:25 PM

    The problem is worse than you think: Our generals and admirals think like their IMPERIAL JAPANESE counterparts in 1941! Our industrial capacity is now directly comparable to IMPERIAL JAPAN'S in 1941, yet none of them are saying, "Let's make peace with China to BUY TIME to get our house in order- boost recruiting or impose a draft so we have the men and women we need to fight a war, re-industrialize so our men and women have something to fight with, make peace with Russia so the Russians will at least REMAIN NEUTRAL in a future Sino-American War, and anything else that must be done- BEFORE we threaten war with China over Taiwan."

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  2. AnonymousApril 24, 2024 at 4:26 PM

    Era of flyover and bomb has passed (SAM advancement) thus penetrating enemy air defense with high speed fade away (B-1 and TU-160). Two class of bombers exist - stealthy but less weapons (B-52) and non-stealthy but lots of weapons (B-2). Stealthy bombers can fly closer before launch their weapons but still not fly over bombing.

    So far, not only China makes no announcements nor any credible information on H-20 (even H-20 is not an official name). All are guesses. To discuss things on purely guesses is not fruitful.

    Another credible thought surfaces among nations is long range strike with missiles. For instance, Pentagon's global strike in one hour but it is China which is closer to achieve this by her hypersonic weapons.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. AnonymousApril 24, 2024 at 4:34 PM

      Therefore, I think that China is very cautious on its new stealthy bomb program (H-20) because advancement of its hypersonic weapon program. Pentagon has even announced China's DF-27 while China remains silent on it.

      China does not only pursue one use hypersonic missiles. They also pursue manned and unmanned hypersonic jets. They have achieved greatly in engines useable in ultra thin air (ramjet, etc.).

      I suspect that China is hesitate to launch stealthy H-20 in large scale as many competitive programs going on. Unlike US, China has no urgent need of stealth bombers as China has no urgent regional wars to fight. They don't care Middle East wars thus just saying things on morally high ground but does NOTHING as a commentator said.

      Delete
  3. AnonymousApril 24, 2024 at 4:28 PM

    There will never be a repeat of WW2 because we don’t have the industrial capacity or qualified population to bounce back like we did in 1941.
    We tend to underestimate enemies while being overconfident in our technological superiority and equipment. Tactics and operational design is what wins wars even if you lose battles. The Vietnamese and Taliban beat us by understanding operational level planning with Stone Age weapons.
    Do we know how the Chinese will employ their weapons and the Chinese operational plans?

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  4. NICOApril 24, 2024 at 4:34 PM

    I have doubts on US intel on China, let's not forget that when J20 had it's first flight in Jan 2011, wasn't US DoD thinking it was years away from flying and Gates got embarrassed when they flew it when he arrived in China? Kind of vaguely remember that episode....

    To me, it's finding out how many J20s and future H20s will China be able to produce and improve on the models? even if not as good as a F22 or B2, I'm afraid China will have the better of us in terms of quantity for sure and might not be that far behind in quality. The form and finish of J20 looks very good and should be pretty decent LO and there's plenty of rumors of B and C improved versions and a twin seater/EA version.

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  5. AnonymousApril 24, 2024 at 4:41 PM

    BTW, Chinas most formidable weapon is culture. TikTok and other cultural shaping will turn any tactical success we have into losses like the Palestinians are doing to Israelis tactical success. We need to focus on the informational sphere of operations to combat China and the State Department needs to take an active role.

    ReplyDelete
  6. LonfoApril 25, 2024 at 7:33 AM

    It's absolutely likely that at least a few big Chinese projects are duds, but the military who came up with the LCS, the Ford, the Zumwalt, the F-35, etc. should eat a big slice of humble pie before dismissing foreign weapons.

    Also, while the Chinese do copy US stuff, I note that they weren't stupid enough to copy the LCS!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chinese GordonApril 25, 2024 at 10:32 AM

      The Chinese had all the intel on the LCS and figured it was a CIA deception operation to make the PLAN waste resources.

      Delete
  7. GeorgeApril 25, 2024 at 8:32 AM

    I really like what the Chinese are doing. Copy a base US design, take out the hard to reproduce pieces at least initially, then after that its all rapid iteration, build a few of a class, figure out what went wrong and what went right, make the required changes, then build a few more. The Chinese have had problems with turbine engines since forever, but they only built relatively few J-20s with Russian AL-31s and domestic WS-10Cs before the new WS-15s became available. Although that "relatively few" may be close to the total size of the US F-22 fleet. Now the J-20s look pretty impressive.

    If you haven't seen this article, it might be worth a glance.
    https://thediplomat.com/2023/08/chinas-j-20-gets-another-upgrade/

    On the Naval side, that's why the Type 052Ds are so interesting. The 052s went from mediocre to pretty decent in a relatively short time. Looks like the same is happening right across the fleet including the heaviest surface combatants like the 055s and the carrier program. In fact, I can't figure out a better way to get into the blue-water carrier business starting from scratch. Build one, look at the problems, build another somewhat more advanced, rinse and repeat.

    The Chinese seem to get how to move their technology forward without getting lost on the way. They don't order huge numbers of an unproven design, see LCS, Zumwalts and Fords for reference.

    We probably shouldn't be surprised, this is how they approach almost everything in their industrial base, from phones to trains to civil airliners.

    Couple that proven approach with their enormous industrial capability and it spells nothing but problems for us. In addition, they throw nothing away, so there are all those second and third tier land-based aviation assets that are perfect for wearing down US and allied magazine capacity in any war close the the Chinese mainland before their A team comes out to play...

    As has been often stated, the logistics issues are a very hard to solve nightmare in any significant war in WestPac. I expect the Chinese to exploit that to the max.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. AnonymousApril 27, 2024 at 1:36 AM

      The 052 did not became the 052D we all know overnight, the first model was laid down in 1990. It took 22 years till the 052D was introduced.

      At the present I did say that the Chinese are no longer copying US designs outright, but rather they are now copying US concepts of war.

      Delete
    2. GeorgeApril 27, 2024 at 8:45 AM

      I should have been more clear. I was thinking about the Burke timeline which had Arleigh Burke laid down end of 1989, and we just now getting Flight III deliveries.

      I completely agree that the Chinese are now way beyond simply copying a US design, and they are now generally copying US ideas and strategies where it suits them. In some areas, like amphibious assault, they are in fact ahead although they don't have the numbers yet. I guess that is largely driven by Taiwan on their doorstep.

      They are also building a lot of different classes concurrently, many of which are quite interesting.

      Delete
  8. AnonymousApril 25, 2024 at 9:16 AM

    Dont forget about the F35 debacle. It gets worse by the day.

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  9. JjabatieApril 25, 2024 at 9:25 AM

    What are the odds that we actually know enough about the aircraft to make this kind of dismissive statements??
    Maybe we have great intel- but its more likely flippant comments based on the amount of tech we know we've had stolen, and some half-hearted uninformed analysis. And considering that our brass DOES know the sorry state of things like the F-35s combat readiness, it just makes for a nice morale booster, nothing more...

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    1. GeorgeApril 25, 2024 at 12:31 PM

      It strikes me that people who should know better take a look at an early production version of something like the J-20, and they assume that its going to stay static for the whole of an extended production run. That comment from Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach was from August of 2022. The Chinese don't work that way, and they are pretty good at introducing improvements during the production cycle. They obviously have decided its worth the hit incurred in supporting a lot of different variants in the field, but they may be sequestering various variants into front-line service, training, etc. Like we have been forced to do with the F-35 although no one would admit to that for a long time.

      While the J-20 still looks much the same to a casual observer, the reality is that there have been huge improvements made to it, namely major airframe improvements, big advances in avionics, and completely new engines that enable more range, more speed, and finally realistic super-cruise like the F-22.

      The J-20 that is being built today is not your grandmother's J-20, and the pace that they have achieved these improvements is nothing short of stunning. Initial J-20s entered service 10 years or so before expected by the West, and in just the last three or four years there have been huge improvements. I don't know about you, but that's enough to make me nervous when you look at the F-35 timeline by comparison, including our ability to get TR-3 and Block 4 deployed.

      Delete
  10. RyanKCApril 25, 2024 at 10:18 AM

    During the Cold War, I don't recall the Navy being dismissive of anything, Soviet. They even talked up that crazy "Caspian Sea Monster" flying boat.

    ReplyDelete
  11. AnonymousApril 25, 2024 at 12:14 PM

    It's an age old problem, recall this: "On to Richmond", July, 1861

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chinese GordonApril 26, 2024 at 5:05 AM

      2nd Edition is out now.
      https://mmpgamers.com/on-to-richmond-ii-the-union-strikes-south-p-367

      Delete
  12. AnonymousApril 25, 2024 at 6:58 PM

    Not sure how useful it is to compare the notional H20 to the B2 or B21. It's how it compares to the IAD it must penetrate that will matter.

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    1. ComNavOpsApril 26, 2024 at 7:50 AM

      "Not sure how useful it is to compare the notional H20 to the B2 or B21."

      Who's doing that and what comparison did they make?

      "It's how it compares to the IAD it must penetrate that will matter."

      Now that's spot on. The H-20 is, presumably, intended to deliver long range cruise missiles against fixed sites (meaning Guam, principally) and Navy carrier or surface groups.

      The military seems oblivious to the need to provide a layered defense for Guam so that won't be much of a challenge for China.

      A carrier group will, presumably, present a challenging layered defense. The key for China is targeting which the H-20 can't do for itself. It doesn't matter how good the H-20 is if it has no target. The Navy's challenge is to deny that targeting. I wish we were exercising that challenge in realistic field exercises but we're not. We'll learn quickly enough, I suppose, when war comes and we lose a few carriers.

      Delete
  13. AnonymousApril 27, 2024 at 5:12 AM

    Even now, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin talked possible scale back on B-21 procurement because of new technologies:

    https://www.realcleardefense.com/2024/04/25/now_is_not_the_time_to_scale_back_on_the_b-21_bomber_program_1027370.html#:~:text=In%20testimony%20before%20the%20Senate,aircraft%20by%20the%20late%202030s.

    More and more technological developments surfaced on detecting stealthy fighters. Worst is most coming from China:

    https://interestingengineering.com/military/china-radar-stealth-f-22

    If stealthy is no longer able to penetrate enemies' sensor systems, then, stealth bombers which carry less weapons than non-stealth ones become questionable.

    China is hesitating on H-20 --- what will it be?

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    1. ComNavOpsApril 27, 2024 at 7:31 AM

      "Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin talked possible scale back on B-21"

      This is the endless pursuit of magic beans that afflicts the US military. There will always be something on the distant horizon that seems better. Thus, we continually cut current acquisition programs in anticipation of the magic beans that never materialize.

      "detecting stealthy fighters."

      Yeah, China never exaggerates its capabilities as a propaganda ploy.

      Delete
    2. LonfoApril 28, 2024 at 3:48 AM

      "possible scale back on B-21"

      This has never happened to the military before, if 'before' means 'last week'.

      Delete
  14. CDR ChipApril 27, 2024 at 11:32 PM

    Do I trust them?

    The Chinese? Np.

    US Navy brass? No.

    ReplyDelete

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