Forward Base - Tinian

This is part 2 of our look at forward bases in the Pacific.  In the first part (see, “Forward Bases in the Pacific”), we looked at general considerations and issues.  In this post, we’ll take a closer look at the challenges involved in establishing a forward base by looking at the specific example of Tinian.

 

The Pacific island of Tinian has been cited as an example of a location where the US could establish a forward base for operations against China.  In fact, the island has a commercial airfield that is being expanded for military use.  In addition, the island has been proposed for extensive use as a military training site. 

 

As a reminder, Tinian is a U.S. territory that is part of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI).  It is located 1700 miles from Taiwan, 2000 miles or so from the South China Sea, and just 123 miles north of Guam.

 

Tinian - Circled in Red

Tinian serves as an excellent example of both the potential benefits and the enormous challenges to establishing bases in the Pacific theater as counters to Chinese expansion.  Let’s look at some of the issues related to establishing bases in the Pacific.

 

 

Benefits

 

Nobody seems to have the slightest doubt that Guam will be a major day-one target for the Chinese and will almost certainly be put out of action, if not totally destroyed.  Having an alternate base(s) is plainly beneficial and will allow us to stay in the fight even if we lose a major base like Guam.  In addition, the more bases we have, the more the Chinese will have to divide their attention and weapons which enhances the chances of survival for each base.

 

Multiple bases provide flexibility and reduce predictability.  For example, if a naval force can put into any of several bases for replenishment and refueling, it reduces the predictability of the event as opposed to having only one base which the Chinese can then easily ‘stake out’ and wait for the naval force to come to them.

 

Pacific bases also provide the opportunity to train in the relevant Pacific environment and with a degree of privacy.  The isolated nature of island bases also allows for the possibility of live fire training.

 

Pacific bases provide strategic and operational benefits by allowing staging from various, widely dispersed locations and expanded air operations and sensor coverage of the surrounding areas.

 

In short, the benefits of multiple Pacific bases are potentially significant and fairly self-evident.

 

 

Challenges

 

Now as an example of the challenges in establishing Pacific bases, let’s consider the specifics of the current efforts to establish and enhance Tinian as a base.

 

Airfield Expansion - Tinian’s commercial airfield is being expanded to accommodate a larger military presence.

 

Satellite imagery shows major construction at Tinian International Airport that we can say with near certainty is linked directly to plans to expand the facility's ability to act as a divert airfield for the U.S. military in a crisis. More than a decade in the making, the project is intended to provide a vital alternative operating location to the U.S. Air Force's massive Andersen Air Force Base on the island of Guam, just to the southwest of Tinian, should that base be put out of action for any reason.[2]

 

A ground-breaking ceremony was held on the island in February of this year to mark the formal start of this work, which will cost approximately $161.8 million and is excepted to be completed by October 2025.[2]

 

Of course, this is still a minor expansion compared to, say, Guam, and thus cannot serve as a true replacement if Guam were destroyed.

 

Even after the divert airfield project is complete, Tinian's airfield facilities will pale in comparison to those on Guam. Still, they will give the Air Force, as well as other branches of the U.S. military, a more viable and immediate alternative to Andersen, especially when it comes to supporting larger aircraft, like aerial refueling tankers and cargo planes, should flight operations come to a halt on Guam as a result of enemy action or for any other reason.[2]

 

 

Fuel Storage - Hand-in-hand with the airfield expansion is the establishment of a major fuel storage and handling facility.  After all, airfields are of no use without fuel !

 

The complete divert airfield effort is also set to include the construction of new fuel storage facilities at Tinian's main port on the southern end of the island and a pipeline linking them to the airport … [2]

 

The fuel pipeline from the port to the airfield will be around 4 miles long which, unfortunately, represents a significant vulnerability in that it is a very long stretch of critical structure that is vulnerable to easy destruction anywhere along the line.  At one end of the spectrum of threats, a single missile hit anywhere along the four mile pipe will put the airfield out of action within a short period.  At the other end of the spectrum a single saboteur could also destroy the pipe with ease.  The lack of base defenses makes any attack a near certain success.

 

 

Training – The US envisioned a major expansion of training facilities and opportunities on Tinian.  However, various issues arose which drastically curtailed those plans.

 

The U.S. military is dramatically scaling back its proposed training plans from the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, the territory’s governor announced this week.[1]

 

“The new notional proposal contemplates similar training activities that are already currently conducted on the island of Tinian but with an eye towards training for the future that is significantly less impactful and harmful to the environment and the way of life for the people of Tinian than the 2015 proposal,” the press release said.[1]

 

The new draft proposal also gets rid of the planned landing ramps on Unai Chulu in Tinian, which environmental officials warned would harm coral reefs, and a planned artillery range on Tinian that would have destroyed historic landmarks from World War II.[1]

 

 

Environmental Impact – As we have seen repeatedly with military basing and training efforts in the US, environmental concerns seem to outweigh combat readiness.

 

When the CNMI Joint Military Training plan was first proposed in 2015, it prompted widespread backlash, including more than 27,000 comments on the draft environmental impact statement, even though the commonwealth is home only to about 50,000 people.[1]

 

The Environmental Protection Agency warned the plans for Tinian could contaminate the island’s aquifer, and the environmental analysis for the CNMI Joint Military Training plan estimated 200 historic sites on Tinian would be affected.[1]

 

The proposal prompted a 2016 lawsuit from the Honolulu Earthjustice office in partnership with local organizations.[1]

 

 

Stupidity

 

And, of course, what would a post be without some official military stupidity?  Here’s today’s contribution:

 

"You want to confuse the enemy about where you actually are," Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall told Aviation Week's Brian Everstine in an interview in March. "So some decoys in other locations will be helpful to do that."[2]

 

No one is going to be fooled by some decoys – whatever those are.  The enemy will know where we are. 

 

We’ll be where the resupply ships are sailing to and docking. 

We’ll be where the radar emissions are coming from. 

We’ll be where the non-stop communications are originating. 

We’ll be where the massive numbers of operating aircraft are located. 

We’ll be where the hundreds of moving trucks and support vehicles are operating. 

We’ll be where the hundred/thousands of people running around are. 

We’ll be where the extensive anti-air defenses are.

 

To believe some decoys in other locations are going to fool the Chinese is delusional.  With satellite, cyber, and human observers, the Chinese will have extensive recordings, photos, and verification about where we’re constructing and emplacing decoys.

 

 

History

 

There are very few examples (none?) of an isolated, island base successfully defending itself from an attacker.  That being the case, one has to ask whether the advantages are worth the eventual loss of the defending forces.

 

 

Summary

 

While the benefits are self-evident, the challenges are substantial.

 

A major issue is that we need to settle the conflict between environmental concerns and combat readiness.  At the moment, environmental concerns reign supreme, however, this is an unwise balance.  Environmental concerns are important and should be accorded due weight in all non-combat civilian applications but the military represents our national survival and environmental concerns cannot trump national survival.  It does no good to have a clean environment and be conquered.  We need to come to grips with this and establish the legal primacy of combat readiness over environment concerns. 

 

This is not to say that we totally ignore environmental concerns and run roughshod over the areas we operate and train in but we cannot allow truly vital operations and training to be negated by snail darters (look it up if you don’t get the reference).  The Hawaii fuel leak fiasco is an excellent example.  The major Pacific fuel storage facility in Hawaii is going to be shut down without replacement due to fuel leaks.  This represents a major blow to our operational capability in the Pacific.  China is now scratching that target off their high priority target list without ever having fired a shot !  Of course, the blame for this lies entirely with the military for failing to act in good faith as stewards of the people’s money and trust.  Hopefully, this will serve as a lesson (it won’t;  nothing seems to get through to military leadership) to the US military that it cannot totally ignore environmental concerns.

 

Any Pacific base that is close enough to China and combat operational areas will, pretty much by definition, be within range of Chinese cruise/ballistic missile strikes.  This mandates robust base defenses which, unfortunately, is the flip side of forcing the Chinese to dilute their offensive efforts.  While the Chinese will be forced to spread their attentions and resources to deal with multiple bases, we, too, will have to spread our attentions and resources to protect those multiple bases.  Are the benefits worth the dilution of resources required to establish and vigorously defend multiple bases?  The answer to that depends on our overall military strategy … which we lack.

 

 

 

 

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[1]Honolulu Civil Beat website, “Northern Mariana Islands Says US Military Agreed To Scale Back Training”, Anita Hofschneider, 1-Apr-2022,

https://www.civilbeat.org/2022/04/northern-mariana-islands-says-us-military-agreed-to-scale-back-training/#:~:text=The%20Air%20Force%20had%20proposed%20a%20new%20airfield,testing%20and%20bombing%20practice%20on%20Farallon%20de%20Medinilla.

 

[2]The Drive website, “Construction Of Airbase On Tinian Island In Case Guam Gets Knocked Out Has Begun”, Joseph Trevithick, 15-Jun-2022,

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/construction-of-airbase-on-tinian-island-in-case-guam-gets-knocked-out-has-begun