Russian Bombers

It’s always a good idea to know your enemy’s capabilities.  Let’s take a look, today, at Russia’s bomber force.

 

As you know, during the Cold War the Soviet Union’s main counter to US carrier groups was long range bombers armed with long range cruise missiles.  The US and the Soviet Union played a continual cat and mouse game with the Soviet Union attempting to find US carriers and simulate attacks while the US carriers tried to hide and detect the Soviet bombers and intercept them far enough away to demonstrate that they could prevent an attack.

 

Today, much of the Russian bomber force has fallen into disrepair and most of what’s left is obsolete.  However, what exists is still a potential threat especially given our greatly reduced air wings and shorter ranged aircraft.

 

Wiki lists the current active bomber force as: (1)

 

 

Aircraft	Yrs Built	Built	Active	Range
Tu-160 Blackjack	‘80s-‘90s	27	16	4000 nm
Tu-22M Backfire	‘70s-‘90s	497	69	1500 nm
Tu-95 Bear	‘50s-‘90s	500+	60	9400 nm

 

 

 

As seen, the numbers of active aircraft are very small and likely overstated even at those reduced levels due to poor maintenance.  In a war, the aircraft would be a nuisance but not a serious, on-going threat.

 

 

Here’s some specs and features of the aircraft:

 

Tu-160 Blackjack

 

-       Speed = Mach 2

-       Combat radius 4000 nm

-       Produced 1984-1992

-       Built 27

-       Currently active qty=16

-       2x internal weapon bays;  2x rotary launchers each holding 6x AS-15 Kent subsonic cruise missiles with 1350 nm range

-       Payload = 88,000 lbs

-       Swing wing

-       Russian version of US B-1

-       Currently undergoing modest modernizations although industrial, financial, and quality issues are significantly impacting the effort.

 

Tu-160 Blackjack

Tu-22M Backfire

 

-       Speed = Mach 1.9

-       Combat radius = 1500 nm

-       Produced ‘70s-‘90s

-       Built 497

-       Currently active qty = 69

-       Internal weapons bay, fuselage and wing pylons

-       Payload = 53000 lbs

-       Major update to the Tu-22 Blinder

-       Swing wing

 

Tu-22M Backfire

 

Tu-95 Bear

 

-       Speed = 510 kts

-       Combat radius = 4000 nm

-       Produced 1952-1994

-       Built 500+

-       Currently active qty= 60

-       Wing pylons

-       Payload 33,000 lb    

-       4x propeller engines with dual contra-rotating props

 

Tu-95 Bear

Technology.  The bombers are all basically 1970’s era technology.  While some of the aircraft have undergone modernizations, the effectiveness of that effort is questionable.  For example, no amount of modernization can turn a large, non-stealthy aircraft into a stealthy, penetrating bomber (consider our own B-52!).  In addition, Russian quality control is notoriously poor and the Ukraine war has demonstrated that Russian systems have performed well below expectations.  There is no reason to believe that their aircraft upgrades have fared any better.

 

Weapons.  While the numbers of active aircraft are quite small, the weapons they carry are reasonably formidable and constitute a serious threat.

 

Kh-15 (AS-16 Kickback)  Mach 5, 160 nm, may be retired from service

Kh-22 (AS-4 Kitchen)  1960’s tech,  Mach 4.6, 320 nm

Kh-32  updated Kh-22, updated, anti-ship, long range

Kh-47M2 Kinzhal  hypersonic, long range, ?accuracy issues?

 

It should be noted, however, that most Russian cruise missiles are older generation and far less of a threat than current, state of the art missiles.  In addition, reports from Ukraine suggest that the Kinzhal may suffer from accuracy/guidance issues although any reports about the Ukraine conflict are suspect.

 

 

 

Analysis

 

Threat to Carrier Groups – Carrier groups have a multi-layered defense and the furthest layer is long ranged aircraft which serve two purposes:  one, they shoot down bombers before they can launch their missiles and, two, they shoot down the targeting aircraft (Bear recon aircraft) to prevent the acquisition of targeting data.  The attacking aircraft+missile range is irrelevant without targeting data.  This outer layer aerial defense was the exact mission of the F-14 Tomcat.  It is a staggering dereliction of duty on the part of Navy leadership to have allowed the Tomcat to pass without replacement.

 

Beyond targeting, Russian bombers are large and non-stealthy (by today’s standards, at any rate) and cannot be considered penetrating aircraft.  Their ability to penetrate a carrier groups layered defense is nearly non-existent.

 

All things considered the threat to US carrier groups has to be considered very low.

 

Fleet Status – Due to age, maintenance, quality, and personnel issues, the Russian bomber fleet is likely barely able to assemble a handful of flightworthy aircraft at any given moment.  Thus, severely limited numbers, alone, make the bomber fleet a nuisance but not a serious threat.

 

 

 

Summary

 

The Russian bomber fleet is old, obsolete, poorly maintained, suffers from quality issues, and is operated and maintained by poorly trained and ill-equipped personnel.  The vast majority of the fleet is not flightworthy, notwithstanding the occasional publicity stunt of a few aircraft flying a photo op mission.  The days of Russian bomber regiments are over.

 

With the usual caveats, the Ukraine conflict seems to be clearly demonstrating all the worst qualities and characteristics of the Russian system, meaning, poor equipment, poorly maintained equipment, poorly trained personnel, unmotivated personnel, inadequate logistics, and so on.  The ultimate proof that this is true is the fact that Ukraine, a fraction of the size, population, and military of Russia is not only still fighting but may be winning.  That doesn’t happen to Russian forces unless the statements about their problems are true.  You don’t have major ships sunk, apparently without even defending themselves, unless the statements about their systemic problems are true.

 

While the Russian bomber fleet poses little threat to US carrier groups, we still desperately need a very long range air superiority fighter to effectively execute the carrier’s role of escort for the cruise missile shooters.  In short, we need a conceptual, longer ranged, naval F-22.

 

 

 

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(1)Wiki, “List of active Russian military aircraft”, retrieved 26-Mar-2018,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_military_aircraft