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Friday, December 3, 2021

Mobile Nuclear Reactors – The Dumbest Idea Ever

‘Spitballing’  is a time-honored method for generating ideas and spurring innovation.  If you’re not familiar with the practice, it’s basically a mental free-for-all where participants toss out ideas, no matter how wild or unconventional and nothing is ruled out.  There are no bad ideas at this stage.  The concept is that the flow of ideas either produces a good one or, more likely, triggers a new, good idea from the germ of one of the oddball ideas.  The second stage of the process is to filter the assembly of ideas and begin weeding out the ridiculous ones and focus in on the better ones. 

 

Well, it appears that the military has been engaging in spitballing but without the second step wherein the ridiculous ideas are weeded out.  A case in point is the concept of mobile nuclear reactors, as reported by an Army Times website article.(1)  According to the article,

 

The Army is seeking to develop and field a mobile nuclear reactor to power forward operating bases. (1)

 

The program, known as “Project Pele,” is prototyping the mobile advanced microreactor concept under the Pentagon’s Strategic Capabilities Office.

 

The purpose is “to provide deployable, reliable, resilient and safe operational power for a variety of DoD missions,” said Navy Cmdr. Josh Frey, a Defense Department spokesman.

 

“Project Pele offers a transformative capability to deliver resilient electrical power for years without refueling and in a size small enough to be transported by existing defense infrastructure,” Frey said. (1)

 

In a 148-page 2018 report commissioned by the Army Deputy Chief of Staff G-4, the authors claimed the benefits of such reactors would help reduce fuel logistics and storage problems, reduce infrastructure challenges for large-scale power, aid in power generation for areas lacking electrical grids and provide power to energy-intensive systems.

 

Congress approved funding for prototype reactors and the Army awarded $40 million in contracts to three nuclear reactor companies in March 2020 for Project Pele, according to the NPPP report. (1)

 

 

 

Here’s an accompanying illustration. 

 

 


What would the specific requirements be?

 

The original proposal, approved by the Pentagon’s Strategic Capabilities Office asked for industry solutions in January 2019 on providing a less than 40-ton small, mobile nuclear reactor design that could operate for three years or more and provide 1 to 10 megawatts of power.

 

Planners want the reactor to fit inside a C-17 cargo plane for air transport to theater. More recent moves have reduced the power output to 5 megawatts.

 

Other requirements include: the reactor must shut down safely without intervention in the event of an attack, rely on passive cooling and avoid significant release of radioactivity or health consequences to people nearby. (1)

 

 

Where would these reactors be used?  Among other places,

 

The 2018 G-4 report recommended the following locations where it saw potential use for the mobile reactors:

 

  • Thule, Greenland
  • Kwajalein Atoll
  • Guantanamo Bay, Cuba
  • Diego Garcia
  • Guam (for both a naval and Air Force facilities on the island)
  • Ascension Island
  • Fort Buchanan, Puerto Rico
  • Camp Buehring, Kuwait
  • Fort Greely, Alaska
  • Lajes Field, Azores

 

Just out of curiosity, don’t all of those places already have power?

 

 

Not everyone agrees with the concept.

 

Alan J. Kuperman wrote the 21-page report titled, “Proposed U.S. Army Mobile Nuclear Reactors: Costs and Risks Outweigh Benefits,” in his role as coordinator of the University of Texas at Austin’s Nuclear Proliferation Prevention Project. (1)

 

Kuperman makes some excellent and common sense points:

 

High cost – Kuperman said the Army’s claims that nuclear power can provide cheaper electricity for powering future forward bases is “based on unrealistic assumptions.” Those include that such a reactor would have low construction costs and operate for 18 hours a day over 40 years. The more likely scenario is a mobile reactor would run for half that time over about 10 years, meaning nuclear electricity could cost 16 times more than estimates and still seven times more than diesel-generated power.

 

Vulnerability to missile attacks – The report points to the 2020 missile attack on forces at al-Asad air base in Iraq. Even with warnings hours ahead of time, more than 100 U.S. personnel suffered traumatic brain injury from the 11 strikes that hit the facility. And the missiles were 10 times more accurate than the Army has predicted in its report on the vulnerability of reactors to precision strikes. The service admits that a direct hit on a reactor would destroy the device. Kuperman notes that even the Army’s plans to protect the reactors, by burying them underground, could inadvertently cause meltdowns by impeding air cooling and causing overheating. A similar strike on an similar such future base with a reactor could cause far more devastating consequences.

 

Captured reactors – Should a U.S. base housing a mobile reactor be overrun or abandoned, the radioactive waste from the reactor could be used in “dirty bomb” terror attacks.

 

No mission for reactors – One of the chief purposes of pursing such reactor programs was to reduce casualties from diesel transport to remote bases. But Defense Department data shows a dramatic drop in casualties of five per 1 million gallons of fuel delivered in 2005 to nearly zero by 2013.

 

High-energy weapons don’t need reactors – Kuperman states that the justification that future high-energy or laser weapons that the Army hopes to have protecting bases don’t require a reactor to power. “A high energy weapon would have to be fired millions of times to justify a reactor,” Kuperman said. “In reality such a weapon would be fired perhaps hundreds of times in its lifetime.”

 

Transport problems – The Army wants to air deliver these reactors to combat posts. Kuperman questions the “regulatory nightmare” that would create. The program calls for initial tests flying the reactors domestically to run then returning them, and their radioactive waste, to another domestic location. Foreign transport would require approval of countries airspace traversed and the approval of a host nation where the reactor would be placed, he said. Other Army recommendations include truck or rail transport domestically and either ship or over-the-ocean flights to friendly ports to then move the reactors again via truck or rail.

 

 

 

Is there any relevant experience with small reactors that we can look at?

 

The military did have a small reactor program during the Cold War. The Army Nuclear Power Program, which ran from 1954 to 1977, developed eight small nuclear reactors. Those reactors ranged in power production from 1 to 10 megawatts.

 

How five of the eight reactors were used:

 

The PM-1 reactor was used in Sundance, Wyoming, from 1962 to 1968.

The PM-2A was used at Camp Century, Greenland, from 1961 to 1964.

The PM-3A was used at McMurdo Base, Antarctica, from 1962 to 1972.

The ML-1 was used in developmental testing from 1962 to 1966.

The MH-1A was used in the Panama Canal Zone from 1965 to 1977.

 

Lyman [Union of Concerned Scientists and its then-director of the Nuclear Safety Project, Edwin Lyman] notes a major failure with one of the original eight designs in 1961 when a core meltdown and explosion of the SL-1 reactor in Idaho killed three operators.

 

The three deployed to Antarctica, Greenland and Alaska proved “unreliable and expensive to operate,” Lyman wrote in his response to the Army’s 2018 report on the mobile reactor program.

 

Lyman told Army Times on Thursday that a number of those old reactors required decades of decommissioning and one used at Fort Belvoir, Va., near Washington D.C. is finally scheduled for decommissioning in late 2021. (1)

 

 

 

Let me summarize this as briefly as I can:  this is one of those ideas that doesn’t even require ten seconds thought to see that the idiotic aspects outweigh the benefits by a wide margin.  Does the military have no one with the courage to stand up and say, this is stupid?  There are so many things we desperately need to be doing and yet we continue to waste time on things like this.  So sad.

 

 

 

___________________________________

 

(1)Army Times, “Mobile nuclear reactors? Scathing report slams ‘disturbing’ military program”, Todd South, 1-May-2021,

https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2021/04/30/mobile-nuclear-reactors-scathing-report-slams-disturbing-military-program/


31 comments:

  1. A nuclear reactors in military installation has a common problem - what to do if it is damaged.

    For instance, if a carrier's reactor is damaged by enemy missiles, radiation will then leak out. It will not kill all onboard immediately (except people close to the reactor) but slowly. All goods (include aircrafts) become radiation contaminated and harmful to human for a long time. So, while the ship still floats, what to do? Withdraw all people and sink it ourselves?

    Same for nuclear reactors in Army base far from the nation.

    For too long, Pentagon design military equipment on an assumption that US technologies are far above others thus others don't have ability to successfully attack.

    If you were Chinese, would you make your missiles track nuclear reactors?

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  2. I hope that at least these reactors won't use bomb grade Uranium, like naval reactors do.

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  3. This is a wonderful example of an idea with essentially no benefits and a million drawbacks, I'm impressed.

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  4. The reason for this is psychological, not logistic. Nuclear anything is a symbol of political power and technological advantage. But only a symbol, in this case. Plus, it's something the Army did in the fifties and early sixties, before Vietnam showed it the limits of its power. They want that feeling back.

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  5. Interesting. I note with caution that the derogatory comments are by fervid anti-nuclear "Scientists". It may well make no sense for the Army to pursue this--but development of smaller reactors is going to be a must for us to go greener in power production. Certainly solar and wind are not going to get us there. Perhaps if the programs were shifted to DOE, it might make more sense.

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  6. I could not care less about the military going green, I just want it to be ready to win wars.

    So when I look at an idea that sounds kind of questionable, I try and reverse the circumstances.

    Would I be worried, or would I be pleased, if the Chinese were doing this?

    I think pleased.

    Lutefisk

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  7. You can watch old Army videos on YouTube where they are setting up bases in Greenland after WWII. In one, a young engineering Captain is in charge of creating an underground base and installing a mobile nuclear plant to power it. This is an old idea which has been done since the 1950's.

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  8. The late Admiral Rickover made a very relevant comment many years ago,

    "An academic reactor or reactor plant almost always has the following basic characteristics: (1) It is simple. (2) It is small. (3) It is cheap. (4) It is light. (5) It can be built very quickly. (6) It is very flexible in purpose. (7) Very little development will be required. It will use off-the-shelf components. (8) The reactor is in the study phase. It is not being built now. On the other hand a practical reactor can be distinguished by the following characteristics: (1) It is being built now. (2) It is behind schedule. (3) It requires an immense amount of development on apparently trivial items. (4) It is very expensive. (5) It takes a long time to build because of its engineering development problems. (6) It is large. (7) It is heavy. (8) It is complicated.“

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  9. "Just out of curiosity, don’t all of those places already have power?"

    And, what would happen if Diego Garcia or Guam lost power from a missile attack in a war with China? Or, Ft. Greely or Puerto Rico lost power due to a natural disaster, such as an earthquake or a hurricane?

    Just because something didn't work 60 years ago, doesn't mean it can't work today due to new materials and designs. What the Army is looking for seems pretty sound, especially the requirements that the reactor can shutdown safely and avoid significant releases of radioactivity.

    Of course, there are operational and logistical issues to solve, such as operating such a device in a foreign country and the ever present safety concerns. But, I think most of these issues can be managed and the risks mitigated.

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    Replies
    1. "what would happen if Diego Garcia or Guam lost power from a missile attack"

      You seem to be suggesting that a nuclear power source is somehow immune to a missile attack?

      You also don't seem to have an understanding of how/why a place would lose power. Simplifying, you lose power for one of two reasons:

      1. You lose the distribution capability (transmitting wires). This would apply equally regardless of the power source so this is utterly irrelevant. Therefore, you must be referring to point 2.

      2. You lose the power source (reactor, power plant/generators). Again, whatever might cause you to lose one would apply equally to all others. The caveat is that conventional power sources can be easily repaired or replaced whereas a nuclear plant, no matter how small, cannot. Further, the radioactive debris from a damaged nuclear plant would likely render repairs or even activity in the vicinity impossible. Finally, one can have dozens of generators/plants to spread out the risk of a single hit taking down all power. I don't think anyone contemplates dozens of nuclear reactors sitting around.

      This is an idea that is just blatantly stupid especially when we already have easy, cheap, plentiful power sources that have no significant downsides. A terrorist is not going to make a dirty bomb out of a conventional generator.

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    2. "The caveat is that conventional power sources can be easily repaired or replaced . . ."

      On the mainland, with a small army of workers, probably. In most cases, utility companies are able to restore power to nearly all of their customers within a couple weeks. Plus, you have the federal government pouring in resources to provide water, food, and other supplies to the population.

      But, a remote island, where everything has to be flown or shipped in, is a far different challenge. Depending on the level of damage, you may find yourself starting from scratch. And, FEMA won't be coming in to care for the civilian population.

      Delete
    3. In a war, Guam would have lots of generators and alternate power sources, lots of technicians for repair, the assistance of the entire military force, and would not care, in the least, about the civilian population, at least not until the military needs were met. I can't think of a more resilient power setup than a military base during war.

      Unlike a civilian region which has to distribute power over massive areas, a military base is relatively small, the power runs are relatively short, and the equipment is fairly modern, well maintained (one hopes), and well supported.

      You're trying hard to contrive a situation to support a ridiculous idea. Look at it objectively and move on to something more productive.

      Delete
  10. The weird thing is, if used in the US as a way to dispute power production particularity backing up Solar or Wind not a bad ideal. Cant really see the logic in trying to use them at the front.

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  11. One idea I've pondered is using a nuclear aircraft carrier for disaster relief. Deploy one to any port in the USA whose city was destroyed by a hurricane, earthquake, or whatever. Hook up to the local grid to provide power while providing fresh water, food, and a hospital. This could also be done in minor war zones. All that is needed is to figure out what is needed to hook up to a local grid and fire hoses and faucets to provide water ashore.

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    Replies
    1. You probably know this but USS Lexington tied up in Tacoma, WA, and supplied a significant portion of the city's power for a month in early 1930 when a drought severely reduced the city's hydroelectric power.

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    2. A nuclear reactor with armor and mobility. Think you could use that to sneak in some nuclear powered battleships.

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    3. "use that to sneak in some nuclear powered battleships."

      You noticed in the linked article that the power output for these small reactors was 1-5 MW. By comparison, a standard LM2500 turbine produces 20-30MW and small ships, like a Burke, use 4x of the turbines! You would need 1-2 dozen of these baby reactors just to power a Burke!

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    4. It certainly is the way I would go to make a battleship (burning dinosaurs is defintely best) but you simply use the needed power to power the vessel and then pawn it of on admirals and congress critters that don't know any better that the armor and guns were protective systems for the reactor. The electricity for shore use would just be an excuse.

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  12. G2mil,
    That's an interesting idea.
    But it might be cheaper, and probably more efficient, to provide emergency equipment designed for the job directly to civilian emergency authorities and keep the aircraft carriers for fighting the bad guys.

    Lutefisk

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    Replies
    1. Yes but tricky thing is almost all lawmakers like funding the military. Try running trough a bill that funds FEMA to have dedicated nuclear floating emergency reactor boats. Before you even get to party lines. Lawmakers from the interior are going to have a cow no matter party line, Alaska and Hawaii are going to wonder why they are so far away, etc...

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  13. For a military to be green they just need to buy carbon offsets. That is just a money issue.

    But as the world becomes green fuel will become scarce. Less refineries making it. Less infrastructure to distribute it. This will make it harder to get fuel where it's needed.

    Fuel can be made from hydrogen and carbon monoxide. Germany used this to make fuel from coal. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_liquefaction.

    Using electricity one can desalinate water then use electrolysis to get carbon. There are chemical reactors using catalysts and electricity that convert carbon dioxide to carbon monoxide. Then use the Fischer–Tropsch synthesis to make fuel.

    This can make logistics easy with a big power source, such as a nuclear reactor.

    I expect in the long term future most planes will use hydrogen, but not for many decades.

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  14. PS: I meant to say electrolysis gives you hydrogen.

    PPS: There are also chemical reactors that nitrogen from the air that gives you fertiliser and thus explosives.

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  15. There is one advantage to this that I can think of. In the event of war with China, it would be easy for a couple Chinese submarines to cut off fuel deliveries to Guam. Having nuclear power would prevent this from completely neutering the base, especially if we developed ways to make fuel using the nuclear energy. Does it justify this development? I don't know, but it is something to consider.

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    1. If the Chinese have the ability and military strength to establish an effective blockade around Guam, a couple thousand miles or whatever it is, from the South China Sea, then we're screwed and no amount of nuclear power is going to make any difference. Remember that fuel is only one necessary commodity for the base. We would also need food, munitions, parts, people, and on and on. If they could blockade fuel, they'd also be blockading everything else and Guam would be rendered combat-ineffective in short order regardless of power. The money spent on baby reactors (you noted that the reactors are only 1-5 MW, right?) would be far better spent on anti-blockade measures, whatever those might be (ASW, missiles, sonar arrays, mines, etc.).

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    2. "In the event of war with China, it would be easy for a couple Chinese submarines to cut off fuel deliveries to Guam. Having nuclear power would prevent this from completely neutering the base, especially if we developed ways to make fuel using the nuclear energy. Does it justify this development?"
      No. A base needs much more than fuel, so if China can successfully prevent resupplying any base won't be operational for long anyway.

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    3. "they'd also be blockading everything else and Guam would be rendered combat-ineffective in short order regardless of power."

      True, but fuel is the hardest thing to ship in by air in sufficient quantities, and at the range of Guam, air supply is much harder to interdict than sea.

      1-5 MW reactor. Yes, I agree that is very small for a base the size of Guam. Not sure why they are even seriously considering for that. Maybe a regular naval reactor would make more sense.

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    4. Yes, but this would only provide electricity. You still need POL for planes, trucks, tanks, helos, ships, etc.

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    5. "You still need POL for planes, trucks, tanks, helos, ships, etc."

      True. There are ways of making liquid fuels from carbon dioxide and hydrogen, although they do require a LOT of electricity. Certainly the small reactors described here wouldn't be relevant to that.

      Delete
  16. Actually, in a sense we might want to be thankful for small miracles. When I first heard of this proposal (some time ago) I was afraid the Army was thinking about placing them in forward bases in war zones such as Afghanistan, where they would be subject to substantial risk of attack and potential destruction or capture by terrorists or insurgents. Most of the suggested locations, however are in stable locations in US territory or stable allies where there is little risk of such attack. The locations in Cuba and Kuwait are dicier, of course. They are stable now but for the future, who knows?

    So there's that.

    Of course, these locations also all have secure logistics, and there is no prospect of losing service personnel delivering fuel to them. So that eliminates much of the justification for nuclear reactors there in the first place.

    So there' also that ....

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  17. Mobile nuclear reactors for the Army have one feasible use- if a unit or base does not expect fuel resupply for the medium-to-long-term.

    A WW2 example is the Battles of Bataan and the experience of the Airborne troops in the Battle of the Bulge.

    Unless it's in that extremely limited circumstance, reactors are more trouble and cost than they're worth.

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  18. It's a bad idea for the Army, but could be of use for the Navy. The technology they are looking at using is different than that of the 1960-1980s. It is a liquid salt cooled reactor that uses unenriched (i.e. non-bomb usable) uranium. This will result in a safer and cheaper reactor with little chance of meltdown. Important for naval use is it is quieter as it doesn't use superheated steam but salts melted by the reactor heat as the heat transfer medium. When overheated these small reactors shut down with the molten salt simply turning solid not spewing superheated radioactive steam everywhere. Further they are doing external explosive tests on these reactor casings because their small size means the outer casing can be armored.
    While a single 5mw is insufficient for a conventional ship or sub, the size does have applications.
    The smaller size means multiple reactors could be distributed on a large vessel, which goes into your previous post on redundancy. Losing power from one doesn't take out all the power, merely reduce it.
    It could also make an excellent “trolling motor” for small ASW surface vessels. With a small acoustic signature already, putting one or two on sound isolating mounts would be quieter by far than any diesel or turbine and sub-hunting doesn’t need high speed but does need sonic stealth. They would be small enough that the Destroyer Escort sized ASW ship you have discussed many times could have one.
    They could also power subs slightly larger the size of smaller diesel sized subs. Instead of AIP with liquid oxygen, these would supply undersea power with diesel reserved for high speed transits. So you’d have a nuclear/diesel SSK that’s as quiet as AIP but with nearly unlimited underwater range unlike an AIP,

    You’re right that using it as a portable power generator is foolish. But that’s a CONOPS failing, not a technology failing.

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