tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post359251188090111207..comments2024-03-28T07:56:09.239-07:00Comments on Navy Matters: Center of GravityComNavOpshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09669644332369727431noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-22824890086365634242015-09-03T11:01:32.471-07:002015-09-03T11:01:32.471-07:00Well for the cost of one Ford Carrier you can have...Well for the cost of one Ford Carrier you can have 2 state of the art Fabs with capacity to provide all "Defense" grade chips. These fabs would NOT be fore consumer goods, those the market can drive to wherever. But approved chip designs could be sent to these facilities and run in a GOCO fashion by say INTEL, or some other chip manufacturer.<br /><br />If we want the security, we have to spend some bucks, but it is not that many.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-52339664928182800582015-09-02T16:20:14.046-07:002015-09-02T16:20:14.046-07:00"Our military computer networks are being hac..."Our military computer networks are being hacked on an almost daily basis - and that only accounts for what is being discussed publicly."<br /><br />Yes because you happen to live in a democracy or something like it..<br /> How much do they tell on Chinese or Russian media if a really sensitive network of they're own has been hacked ?<br /><br />"Our UAV comms have been proven susceptible to hacking."<br /><br /> Yes because the US happens to use a lot of UAVs over the last 15 years globally , neither China or Russia does so.<br /> The RQ-170 story has been discussed a lot, many people hav agreed that it was a stealth UAV for countries with air defenses similar to Iran, North Korea and so on. <br /><br /><br />"We've stood up entire cyber departments. That wouldn't happen if we thought our systems were protected."<br /><br /> Again the US is a democracy and big money in defense has to be accounted for.. <br /> Somehow i am sure Russia and especially China have similar departments but they are not public... <br /><br /><br />The AESA was just an example electronic gizmo's<br /> <br /> Storm Shadowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10999164214935172607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-58544729758313358612015-09-02T15:21:24.633-07:002015-09-02T15:21:24.633-07:00Storm, you completely missed the point when you li...Storm, you completely missed the point when you listed radars. I was not claiming that China or Russia have better radars (they might - who knows?) or better electronic devices. I said that our networks and data transmission systems were vulnerable to attack. Be sure to read the posts and comments carefully!ComNavOpshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09669644332369727431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-32826779368611445352015-09-02T15:19:03.901-07:002015-09-02T15:19:03.901-07:00"The Japanese and Germans at the start of WWI..."The Japanese and Germans at the start of WWII had generally better stuff and yet it turned out that they had plenty to worry about."<br /><br />Yeah but they did not have the vast pool of strategic resources the US and USSR had ;)"<br /><br />That was kind of my point. Simply having an edge in one area does mean we have "nothing to worry about".ComNavOpshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09669644332369727431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-19077267507720004542015-09-02T15:15:35.090-07:002015-09-02T15:15:35.090-07:00"You're views are very pessimistic by the..."You're views are very pessimistic by the way"<br /><br />Pessimistic or realistic?<br /><br />My record on assessments and predictions of Navy system and platform performance is immensely better than the Navy's. For example, I predicted an endless stream of problems with the LCS. Was I pessimistic or realistic? I predicted huge cost overruns with the Ford. Was I pessimistic or realistic? I've described huge problems with the Marine's amphibious assault doctrine and capabilities. Is that pessimistic or realistic?<br /><br />If you just want to hear how wonderful everything is, you might consider reading the Navy's official website. Hey, have you read about the amazing LCS MCM module? It's revolutionizing mine warfare as we know it! ComNavOpshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09669644332369727431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-83882268592763048592015-09-02T15:09:23.725-07:002015-09-02T15:09:23.725-07:00"Currently, our network/data systems are very..."Currently, our network/data systems are very vulnerable and I don't see them as better" How do you know that ??<br /><br />Our military computer networks are being hacked on an almost daily basis - and that only accounts for what is being discussed publicly. I'm sure the reality is much worse.<br /><br />CNO Greenert has stated that our electromagnetic discipline has all but vanished meaning that our emissions (and hence entry portals to electronic systems) are extensive and vulnerable. <br /><br />Our comm systems use outdated software and protocols by today's standards.<br /><br />Our UAV comms have been proven susceptible to hacking.<br /><br />We've stood up entire cyber departments. That wouldn't happen if we thought our systems were protected.<br /><br />I can do this all night but you should be getting the idea. I don't make this stuff up. It's all from reports and incidents.<br /><br />The better question is what on earth would lead you to think our systems are even remotely secure?ComNavOpshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09669644332369727431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-61811220427760259152015-09-02T14:17:26.275-07:002015-09-02T14:17:26.275-07:00China and Russia are large nations with lots of re...China and Russia are large nations with lots of resources, so I'm not sure that's a great analogy here. <br />AltandMainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01014823246265859953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-81752843829554014282015-09-02T14:09:08.523-07:002015-09-02T14:09:08.523-07:00You would have to build billions of dollars worth ...You would have to build billions of dollars worth of fabs here in North America. <br /><br />Yes America does do some (and I emphasize the "some") the design work, but would they be able to ramp up the volume to completely replace the likes of Samsung, TSMC, SK Hynix, Toshiba, and whoever else owns a fab? Because in the scenarios that are being described here, those may not be available. <br /><br />Chips are an international thing. They don't just need to do the design work - they need to do everything here (tools like steppers, all of the parts, and have the capacity to replace any disruptions). That's much harder than it sounds. <br /><br />So too are car parts (and I speak as a former employee of GM). The cars may be assembled here, but not all of the parts. If a few critical parts are not, then what are you going to do when the supply chain is disrupted? <br /><br />It's not just war we are talking about. The 2011 earthquake in Japan did a lot to disrupt many of the electronics goods that came from Japan and that was in northeastern Japan (an area that is viewed as a backwater). What would have happened if the earthquake had been between Tokyo and Osaka in the crowded area? AltandMainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01014823246265859953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-45526101457998354392015-09-02T13:35:15.924-07:002015-09-02T13:35:15.924-07:00"The Japanese and Germans at the start of WWI..."The Japanese and Germans at the start of WWII had generally better stuff and yet it turned out that they had plenty to worry about."<br /><br />Yeah but they did not have the vast pool of strategic resources the US and USSR had ;) Storm Shadowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10999164214935172607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-75882847676313071732015-09-02T13:30:43.789-07:002015-09-02T13:30:43.789-07:00"Currently, our network/data systems are very..."Currently, our network/data systems are very vulnerable and I don't see them as better" How do you know that ??<br /><br />What makes you think really important US electronic systems are not better then most of the Chinese Russian counterparts .<br /><br />I will give you an example in AESA fighter radars . <br /><br />The US has currently fielded FOUR mature operational types of them <br /><br />AN/APG-77 on F-22<br /><br />AN/APG-63(V)3 on some F-15Cs<br /><br />AN/APG-79 on latter F-18E/Fs<br /><br />AN/APG-80 on UAE F-16s but still a US radar<br /><br />Not mentioning AN/APG-81 on F-35, and RACR and SABR , AESA radars for upgrade of F-16s <br /><br /> You know that is more AESA fighter radars Types combined then the rest of the world have on different fighter jets. ( not to mention that AESAs are very nice jammers them selfs ) <br /><br />The above is just an argument that the US is pretty good at electronic gizmo's .<br /><br />The Chinese have yet to demonstrate a system witch is like Link-16 , the Russians are bragging but they don't have better .<br /><br />You're views are very pessimistic by the way :DStorm Shadowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10999164214935172607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-28046357583543300672015-09-02T13:29:19.280-07:002015-09-02T13:29:19.280-07:00I have read books on Desert Storm and Vietnam. Vi...I have read books on Desert Storm and Vietnam. Vietnam is not a useful case study for modern BVR air combat. (i.e. No AWACs, limited NCTR, IFF, networking, etc. )<br /><br />Uncertain IDs probably SHOULD be passed up if there are ten times as many BLUE aircraft in the sky as RED.<br /><br />Did the Iraqi aircraft flee because we didn't have VID on them? Or because we weren't prepared to stop them? Who would've thought they'd run to Iran.<br /><br />From here,<br /><br />http://fas.org/man/eprint/carpente.htm<br /><br /><i>On BVR ROE, Horner stated, "Long before the war started, we concluded we couldn't live with unrestricted BVR because of the Stealth at night, primarily. And we also concluded it wasn't required because the Iraqi's weren't going to pose that big a threat. We were going to take out their command and control and then we were going to shoot them down. So, the decision was one of practicality, not one of doctrine."</i><br /><br />The Iraqis just weren't a big enough threat to warrant unrestricted BVR.<br /><br /><br />B.Smittyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12650152449414871058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-11228544996720881382015-09-02T12:59:31.345-07:002015-09-02T12:59:31.345-07:00Oh good grief. You really think the US doesn'...Oh good grief. You really think the US doesn't have a historical insistence on VID? We watched the entire Iraqi air force flee. Read any of the books on Desert Storm or Vietnam. They're packed with passed up shots due to uncertain ID. I'm done with this. It's not even a point of debate.ComNavOpshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09669644332369727431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-11902012067365013062015-09-02T12:47:12.182-07:002015-09-02T12:47:12.182-07:00I'm disputing this so-called "historical ...I'm disputing this so-called "historical insistence on VID". Read the last bold line in my previous post.<br /><br />E-3s never VID aircraft. The coalition flew ten times as many sorties on the first day of Desert Storm as the Iraqis, yet fighters (for the most part) did not need to VID air targets even though they were far more likely to encounter friendlies than enemies. E-3s, IFF and NCTR enabled us to reliably determine friend from foe and engage at BVR.<br /><br />Where do you get your data for this assertion? "<i>Desert Storm contained hundreds of passed over kills due to BVR friendly fire concerns.</i> "B.Smittyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12650152449414871058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-73456065128320484832015-09-02T11:57:12.917-07:002015-09-02T11:57:12.917-07:00I'm still not completely sure what your point ...I'm still not completely sure what your point is but I'll attempt a response anyway.<br /><br />We're discussing (or, at least, I am) high end combat - a war. Satellite systems will be targeted and eliminated very early in a conflict. Of course, lower end skirmishes might not go as far as unrestricted combat. That's obvious. Again, not sure exactly what you're saying beyond the obvious.<br /><br />As far as nothing to worry about if our stuff is better, that's kind of the point of the post. Currently, our network/data systems are very vulnerable and I don't see them as better. Hence, significant cause for worry.<br /><br />Further, the only way to know for sure if our stuff is better is actual combat and by then it's too late to change. Now is the time to self-evaluate and improve.<br /><br />"nothing to worry about" - That's a bit of an incredibly simplistic and optimistic thought! The Japanese and Germans at the start of WWII had generally better stuff and yet it turned out that they had plenty to worry about.ComNavOpshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09669644332369727431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-26706632548682064262015-09-02T11:48:32.340-07:002015-09-02T11:48:32.340-07:00Smitty, thanks for the reprint but I've alread...Smitty, thanks for the reprint but I've already read the report. You seem to think I'm arguing against BVR or claiming that BVR doesn't exist. I'm totally in favor of it - who wouldn't prefer BVR kills? We have the capability and it works.<br /><br />My contention - I'll repeat it so you understand it - is that BVR will not be nearly the factor we think unless we amend our historical insistence on VID. Read any book or report on Desert Storm and you'll be struck by the number of BVR kill opportunities we passed up. We really handcuffed ourselves. Of course, given the almost total absence of aerial resistance, there was no reason not to pass up any BVR kill that wasn't 122% certain ID. The historic portion of my point is that we always seem to have a reason not to fully commit to BVR combat. Examples, range from ground combat where we withhold artillery and mortar support due to slight uncertainty about friendly or civilian involvement to airborne combat (Desert Storm being the most recent) where we withheld numerous BVR shots due to very slight uncertainties. <br /><br />I'll repeat, unless we modify our historic reluctance to fully commit to BVR, our layered systems will be far less effective than they appear on paper. Any who would claim that we'll do BVR in the next conflict are just flat out ignoring our combat history, practices, and ROEs.<br /><br />Everything I'm saying is fact, not opinion, so what are you attempting to dispute?ComNavOpshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09669644332369727431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-54723879126022210782015-09-02T10:42:08.282-07:002015-09-02T10:42:08.282-07:00My point about GPS was this :
"We’ve seen the...My point about GPS was this :<br />"We’ve seen them conduct their own anti-satellite missile tests so there go our GPS signals. "<br /><br /> Unless its WWIII no one would attack kinetically the other sides satellites. <br /> Of course during a smaller conflict they could be all sorts of attempts to jam and spoof and disrupt satellite signals to bring them out of orbit .<br /> But the side that chooses to shoot first at an opponents satellite will cross the Rubicon. <br /><br />My point was if you do the same things to the "enemy" and you're electronic gadets and gizmo's are better then there is nothing to worry about .Storm Shadowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10999164214935172607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-28784283960374992422015-09-02T10:38:08.949-07:002015-09-02T10:38:08.949-07:00CNO said, "Is it really a BVR kill if the tar...CNO said, "<i>Is it really a BVR kill if the target is identified by EO (camera)? I think not. It's just amplified eyes (VID).</i>"<br /><br />From the report, "<i><br />Detection and Identification<br /><br />In twenty-seven of thirty-three engagements against fixed wing aircraft (82%), AWACS provided target information <b>and identification</b> before U.S. fighters detected enemy aircraft.<br /><br />On average AWACS <b>detected and identified</b> enemy aircraft while they were still over 70 nm from U.S. fighters.<br /><br />In the four engagements where ACM occurred, U.S. pilots first detected enemy aircraft at 5 nm or more on radar.<br /><br />BVR Engagements<br /><br />On average, U.S. pilots detected enemy aircraft on their own radars at 42 nm and launched missiles at 10 nm.<br /><br />It is noteworthy that half of the BVR engagements occurred during the first three days of the conflict while the Iraqi Air Force was still attempting to maintain defensive patrols and <b>before Iraqi fighter aircraft began to escape to Iran</b>. <b>What is striking about this is that the sheer numbers suggest the probability of coalition fratricide was quite high, yet none occurred</b>. For example, on the first day of the air campaign, coalition aircraft flew more than 1,300 combat missions into Iraqi airspace, whereas the Iraqi Air Force flew just over one hundred fighter sorties. Four days later, the coalition flew almost eight hundred combat sorties over Iraq,<br />whereas the Iraqi Air Force flew just twenty-five combat sorties. This disparity in the relative number of friendly and enemy aircraft operating over Iraq shows why simply relying on friendly IFF for target identification in BVR engagements is unadvisable. For example, if we assume coalition IFF systems have a 95 percent chance of functioning properly throughout a combat mission, then we could have expected about seventy-five IFF failures on the first day of Desert Storm and about forty on day four. These numbers are close to the number of Iraqi fighter sorties flown on those days. So, odds are about even that a target that fails to respond correctly to an IFF query is a friendly aircraft. This same numerical disparity in friendly and enemy aircraft existed over North Vietnam and was one of the primary reasons for the reluctance of U.S. aircrew to initiate BVR attacks and the rarity of BVR kills in that conflict.<br />By 1991 U.S. forces had much greater confidence in their ability to correctly identify enemy aircraft at BVR range, even in an environment where most aircraft, and many aircraft without<br />proper IFF responses, were likely friendly. There were several factors that made this possible.<br /><br />...<br /><br />Watching Iraqi aircraft takeoff allowed E-3 crews to immediately identify them as hostile, while the E-3’s comprehensive communications suite and large mission crews, between thirteen<br />and nineteen air weapon controllers and other specialists, allowed them to communicate this information and provide dedicated support to multiple coalition fighter crews simultaneously<br />via ultra-high frequency (UHF) voice radio links. <b>Coalition ROE allowed combat pilots to engage any aircraft declared hostile by an E-3 crew without the need for further identification. </b><br /></i><br />B.Smittyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12650152449414871058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-2181057006033878072015-09-02T06:16:23.046-07:002015-09-02T06:16:23.046-07:00Of course we'll be doing the same things to th...Of course we'll be doing the same things to the enemy. I'm not sure what your point is here. <br /><br />Again, not sure what your point is about GPS. We're talking about high end, all-out combat in which GPS systems on both sides will be knocked out very quickly.<br /><br />You had a point to make but it didn't come across. Try again?ComNavOpshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09669644332369727431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-17702987903980579642015-09-02T06:03:14.361-07:002015-09-02T06:03:14.361-07:00Smitty, I've read that report and the historic...Smitty, I've read that report and the historical/conclusions section is absolute garbage. The future trends portion is interesting but flawed due to the failed conclusions from the historical section. Here's a few examples of problems with the report.<br /><br />1. The bulk of the 1980’s BVR kills was due to Iran-Iraq conflict – pilots not exactly renowned for their concern about friendly or civilian kills and yet this data is used to draw conclusions about BVR trends despite the fact that the US would never operate that way.<br /><br />2. Vast majority of 1990s era kills were due to Desert Storm which was not aerial combat but was just a live fire exercise. Those "kills" demonstrate nothing about modern aerial combat because they weren't combat.<br /><br />3. Report notes the disappearance of rear-aspect-only missile kills as evidence of the trend towards BVR. In reality, it only proves that the missile became obsolete. Rear aspect kills still occurred but with an all-aspect missile. Highly misleading.<br /><br />4. The range of the kills were not disclosed or factored into the analysis. For instance, if a pilot used an AIM-7 or -120 fired in visual range it is counted as a BVR missile kill even though the reality is that it was a VR engagement. This happened frequently in Vietnam. I don't know about Desert Storm instances but I assume some occurred.<br /><br />A few other report related thoughts:<br /><br />Is it really a BVR kill if the target is identified by EO (camera)? I think not. It's just amplified eyes (VID).<br /><br />The main failing of the report is the absence of any analysis of the kills that did not occur (admittedly a very difficult thing to do!). Desert Storm contained hundreds of passed over kills due to BVR friendly fire concerns. So, the trend of kills may show an increase in BVR but the trend of engagements shows a trend of increasing "fails" due to ID fears. One could almost argue that the trend is away from BVR when the "failed" kills is factored in.<br /><br />Thus, the author's conclusions are significantly flawed. Unfortunately, he then uses the flawed conclusions to construct his future warfare concepts.<br />ComNavOpshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09669644332369727431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-17574112706920664352015-09-02T05:43:10.294-07:002015-09-02T05:43:10.294-07:00You forget one simple thing Comnavops
Sometimes ...You forget one simple thing Comnavops<br /><br /> Sometimes things go vice versa <br /><br />They jam you're comms you're jam theirs ( BTW every jammer is a HARM magnet ) <br /> They hack you're networks you better make sure you've hacked theirs first.<br /><br />Now about GPS , if they really start knock out kinetically GPS or any other US satellites that would mean that this would be a very serious conflict near to an all out war , they would not risk to start a war in space over a proxi conflict .<br />Because who knows what the US has .. what has been the X-37B doing in space for all this time for example, no one really knows.<br />And thats just a overt US program.<br />Storm Shadowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10999164214935172607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-31536454878751143412015-09-02T03:55:37.256-07:002015-09-02T03:55:37.256-07:00Jim,
See below,
http://csbaonline.org/wp-content...Jim,<br /><br />See below,<br /><br />http://csbaonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Air-to-Air-Report-.pdfB.Smittyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12650152449414871058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-12481814866569315292015-09-02T03:46:04.884-07:002015-09-02T03:46:04.884-07:00I disagree completely, I am in the Semiconductor t...I disagree completely, I am in the Semiconductor test business now and there are plenty of US companies that do the not only the upfront design work but do the initial prototype fab work to check it out. Also as you pointed out there are still several large production fab houses in the US. There is plenty of experience here if we offset the costs I have mentioned.<br /><br />Likewise, the majority of cars sold in the US are built in the US so again the expertise is here.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-58450928381336968072015-09-01T16:19:00.860-07:002015-09-01T16:19:00.860-07:00There have been real cases of friendly fire with B...There have been real cases of friendly fire with BVR. AltandMainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01014823246265859953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-25992877803949501522015-09-01T16:18:27.507-07:002015-09-01T16:18:27.507-07:00These are the sorts of things that take decades of...These are the sorts of things that take decades of experience to do well. Plus huge capital costs. <br /><br /><br />Intel for example is the leader, but their fabs tend to be expensive. Plus they don't have experience with the kind of volume we're talking about. They make high margin products. The volume leaders are Samsung and TSMC. Micron is a big player in Nand and Dram, but not the top dog right now. <br /><br /><br />You need massive volume and capital costs too sustain this type of industry. Costs that the East Asian governments are willing to subsidise and the US in its "free market" ideological blindness is not. <br /><br />Same thing could be said about cars, machine tools, and other important manufacturing abilities. These are accumulated skills that take years to build up. That is what the US has lost when outsourcing. AltandMainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01014823246265859953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5579907756656776056.post-68361583475381618052015-09-01T16:13:51.187-07:002015-09-01T16:13:51.187-07:00It is not that easy I am afraid. It is not that easy I am afraid. AltandMainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01014823246265859953noreply@blogger.com